Dollar Index needs to decisively break below 107 to turn bearish. Else, while it holds above 107.70, it can attempt to rise back towards 108.50 again. Euro needs to see a strong break past 1.0450 to bring 1.05/06 into picture. Immediate support at 1.0350. EURINR its trading higher within its broad range of 89-91. USDJPY and EURJPY if sustained, can are rising towards 155/56 and 162/64 respectively. AUDUSD and Pound can remain ranged within 0.6150-0.6350 and 1.23-1.26 respectively in the near term. USDCNY on a strong break past 7.30, can test 7.35 on the upside. USDINR above 86.50, can extend the rise towards 87.00-87.15 in the near term. US PPI data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (107.888) initially rose to the level of 108.523 on higher-than-expected MoM US CPI release at 0.5% (0.3%). Later the gains faded to the low of 107.62 as news came out President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine. Moving further, a decisive break below 107 will be needed to make the outlook bearish on Index. Else, while it holds above 107.70/50, Index can again attempt to rise back towards 108.50-109.00.

EURUSD (1.0399) in line with our view, tested 1.0422 on the upside before coming down. Pair is unable to see a sustained break past 1.0450, which will be needed to bring higher levels of 1.05 or even 1.06 into picture. Immediate support is coming at 1.0350, above which the possibility of pair rising further is kept alive. Overall, downside can be limited to 1.03 for now.

EURINR (90.1535) is trading near the upper end of its range of 89-91, break past which can take it higher to 91.50 initially. Until then, range can hold for now.

EURJPY (160.418) has tested our initial target of 160 and exceeded further. While the rise sustains, higher resistance around 162-164 region can also be tested in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (154.49) has surpassed our mentioned target of 154. While above 154, a further rise to 155-156 looks likely. Only a break below 154 can drag it lower again.

USDCNY (7.3020) is slowly inching up higher. Our target of 7.35 remains alive for now. While above 7.250-2.225, view remains bullish.

Aussie (0.6276) and Pound (1.2483) are holding well within the broad range of 0.6150-0.6350 and 1.23-1.26 respectively.

USDINR (86.8020) observed a low of 86.46 yesterday before rising higher. While above 86.50, a rise to 87.00-87.15 can happen in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply after the inflation data release yesterday. A follow-through rise is needed from here to go up further. Else they can fall back. We will have to wait and watch. The US Headline CPI rose 3% (YoY) in January, up from 2.87% in December. The Core CPI increased by 3.29% in January, up from 3.21% a month ago. The German yields have risen further. The chance of the fall is getting reduced. The yields can rise further from here. The 10Yr GoI remains stable within the range.

The rise to 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) on the US Treasury yields has happened much faster than expected. A strong follow-through rise from here can take them up to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). Else a fall back to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) can be seen. We will have to wait and see.

The German 10Yr (2.48%) and the 30Yr (2.72%) yields have risen further. A rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) looks more likely now. The chances of the fall to 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) has largely been reduced now.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7022%) has inched up. The 6.6%-6.7250% range is intact. For now, it looks like the yield can go either way within the range. But eventually we expect it to breach 6.7250% and a rise to 6.8%-6.85%.

The Dow Jones initially fell to a low of 44104.48 before recovering above 44300 and holding the range of 44000-45100. A break below 44000 would confirm the double top formation and pull the index down to 43000. DAX has risen above 22100. Further, a follow-through rise would take the index higher to 23000. Nifty tested the support of 22800 by dropping down to 22798.35 before moving higher and closed above 23000. Further, Nifty needs a rise past 23300 to negate the risk of seeing a fall towards 22500. Nikkei has moved up above 39000 and is heading towards 40000. Shanghai has risen to 3350. Further, while this rise is sustained, extended gains towards 3400-3420 can be seen.

The Dow (44368.56, -0.50%) has come down. The immediate outlook is mixed. The 44000-45100 range is intact now. A fall below 44000 will indicate a double-top formation which can drag it down to 43000 and lower. Be cautious.

DAX (22148.03, +0.50%) has rien well above 22100. While this sustains, a rise to 23000 is possible from here.

Nifty (23045.25, -0.12%) has risen back sharply from 22798. The support at 22800 is holding well as expected. Need to see if the bounce sustains and the Nifty gets a follow-through rise to 23200-23400 from here.

Nikkei (39474.75, +1.31%) within the range of 38000-40000, rose above 39000. Further, while above 39000, the index could move higher towards the upper end of the sideways range at 40000.

Shanghai (3342.4120, -0.12%) trades below our target of 3350. While above 3320-3300, further rise towards 3400-3420 looks possible.

Crude prices have dipped from respective resistances as expected and could dip some more in the near term. Gold seems to be ranged for now and can trade within 3000-2850 region for sometime while Silver can rise to 33-33.50 while above 31.50. Copper has regained the earlier losses seen during the week and is poised to move up again targeting 4.7-4.8. Natural Gas is steadily rising as expected and could head towards 3.8-4.0 soon.

Brent ($ 74.53) and WTI ($ 70.75) have fallen sharply as expected from 77.29 and 73.68 and can extend fall towards 73/72 and 68 respectively in the near term.

Gold ($ 2934.70) is looking a bit uncertain for the very near term. We may expect trade between the 3000-2850 region for a few sessions. Thereafter a break on either side is needed to give further clarity on direction.

Silver ($ 32.75) seems to be holding well above the 31.5 level and has some scope to rise to 33-33.5 in the next few sessions. A narrow range of 33.5-31.5 can hold for now.

Copper ($ 4.6895) has recovered the dip seen from 4.715. The low has been limited to 4.541 while the price is moving again to the week’s high. With the upside momentum intact, a test of 4.7-4.8 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6470) has been steadily rising over the past few days and could soon be headed towards 3.8-4.00 in the coming days. Immediate view is bullish.

7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal
… Exp -16.6 … Expected -18.3 … Previous -19.3

7:30 13:00 CH CPI
… Exp 0.1 … Expected -0.1 … Previous 0.7

10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
… Exp 0.3% … Expected -0.6% … Previous 0.2%

13:30 19:00 US PPI
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.2%

13:30 19:00 US Core PPI … Exp 0.1 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.1

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
12:00 17:30 IN IIP
… Exp 2.4% … Expected 3.9% … Previous 5.0% … Actual 3.2%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
… Exp 4.94 … Expected 4.60 … Previous 5.22 … Actual 4.31

13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.4 … Actual 0.5

13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.2% … Actual 0.4%