Dollar Index extended the fall further. A break below 107 can initiate the fall towards 106.00-105.50. Euro can head towards the resistance needs to see a strong break past 1.0450 to bring 1.05/06 into picture. EURINR is trading higher within its broad range of 89-91. USDJPY and EURJPY are coming off but immediate downside can be limited to 150 and 158 respectively. AUDUSD and Pound are nearing the upper end of their respective ranges of 0.6150-0.6350 and 1.23-1.26 respectively. USDCNY is also coming down but the immediate support at 7.25 and deeper support at 7.225 can hold for now. USDINR above 86.50, can extend the rise towards 87.00-87.15 in the near term. US Industrial production and US Capacity utilization data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (107.07) slipped below the support of 107.50 as the news of further talks to end the war between Russia & Ukraine which supported Euro. Decisive break below 107 can bring the lower targets of 106-105.50 back into picture.

EURUSD (1.0457) has risen well so far and is possibly headed towards the resistance around 1.05. Failure to test the resistance can keep the pair ranged within 1.0250-1.0450 region for a while.

EURINR (90.6983) continues to trade near the upper end of its range of 89-91, break past which can take it higher to 91.50 initially. Until then, range can hold for now.

EURJPY (159.73) was expected to rise towards 162-164, in actual it reversed from the level of 161.89 itself. Even if the fall extends further, downside can be limited to 158 for now. On the upside higher resistance is kept alive between 162-164 region.

Dollar-Yen (152.72) started coming off from the 154.66 itself. Further if Dollar Index breaks below 107, USDJPY can be vulnerable to fall towards 150. A break below 150 is not anticipated for now.

USDCNY (7.3020) fell sharply as well on Dollar Weakness. A deeper support is coming at 7.250-2.225, above which the target of 7.35 is kept alive. Not that if the fall continues further then the target on upside can get delayed.

Aussie (0.6322) and Pound (1.2559) are nearing the upper end of their respective ranges of 0.6150-0.6350 and 1.23-1.26. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further or pairs fall back within the ranges will have to be seen.

USDINR (86.7080) continues to trade above 86.50. It can eventually rise higher towards 87.00-87.15 in the near term. Overall, a range of 86.50-87.15 is likely to hold for a while.

The US Treasury and the German yields have come down sharply. Failure to rise back from here can drag them further lower in the coming days. That in turn will negate the chances of the rise that we had mentioned yesterday. Both the yields will need a close watch for the next few days to get a cue on the next move. The 10Yr GoI continues to hover near the upper end of its range. The immediate outlook is unclear. But eventually we expect the yield to break the range on the upside and rise.

The US 10Yr (4.53%) and 30Yr (4.74%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. Failure to rise back above 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) can drag them down to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). That will negate the possibility of the rise to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) mentioned yesterday.

The German 10Yr (2.42%) and the 30Yr (2.67%) yields have come down sharply. A fall below 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) will bring back the danger of seeing 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) on the downside. It will then negate the chances of the rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7103%) continues to hover near the upper end of the 6.6%-6.7250% range. The immediate outlook is unclear. But eventually we expect the yield to break 6.7250% and rise to 6.8%-6.85%.

The Dow Jones and DAX have risen well. The Dow Jones is heading towards the 45100. Thereafter, a rise past 45100 would take the index higher towards 45500. DAX could extend the rise towards 23000. Nifty attempted a rise past 23200 but failed to sustain higher and has come down near 23000. A break below 23000 would take the index lower to 22800-22500 before seeing a reversal. Nikkei has come down after rising to 39500 and is heading towards 39000. Shanghai has come down after rising to 3350. Further, a test of the support of 3320-3300 is likely before seeing a rise to 3400-3420.

The Dow (44711.43, +0.77%) is moving up within the 44000-45100 range. Looking at the daily chart, the danger of the double top that we have been cautioning about seems to be waning out. So, if 45100 is broken, then we can get a rise to 45500 and higher. Wait and watch.

DAX (22612.02, +2.09%) has risen sharply and can head up towards 23000.

Nifty (23031.40, -0.06%) has come down, failing to sustain the break above 23200. It might oscillate between 22800 and 23300 for some time now. 22800-22500 is a strong long-term support, which we expect to hold and produce a rise on the Nifty going forward. Wait and watch.

Nikkei (39287.25, -0.44%) is holding above 39000. While the 39000 holds, a rise towards 39500-40000 looks possible. Failure to sustain above 39000 would pave the way for 38500-38000. Overall, holding the range of 38000-40000.

Shanghai (3330.3587, -0.06%) has dropped slightly. The index could come down to test the support of 3320-3300. Thereafter, a rise towards 3400-3420 looks possible.

Crude prices remain bearish, with Brent expected to decline towards $ 73/72 and WTI towards $ 68 in the near term. Gold and Silver face resistance near 3000 and 33.5, respectively. Below these levels, they may remain in a range between $ 3000-2800 and $ 33.5-31.5 for some time. Copper needs to break above $ 4.8 to maintain its bullish momentum towards $ 5.0-5.2; otherwise, it could fall back to $ 4.6-4.4. Natural Gas is likely to continue rising towards $ 3.8-4.0 in the near term.

Brent ($ 75.26) and WTI ($ 71.47) experienced a slight recovery yesterday, but the overall outlook remains unchanged, with both expected to fall towards $ 73/72 and $ 68, respectively, in the near term.

Gold ($ 2954.80) is rising and may face resistance near $ 3000. A broad range of $ 3000-2800 is likely to hold for some time.

Silver ($ 33.20) has risen above $ 33 as expected. It needs to surpass $ 33.5 to see further gains towards $ 34-35 in the coming months. Otherwise, it may remain in a range between $ 33.5-31.5 for some time.

Copper ($ 4.7890) has surged above $ 4.7 as anticipated. It needs to break above $ 4.8 to maintain its bullish momentum towards $ 5.0-5.2. If $ 4.8 holds, we could see a corrective dip towards $ 4.6-4.4 before continuing its upward trend.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6440) is moving in line with our expectations and could rise further towards $ 3.8-4.0 in the coming sessions.

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
… Exp 2.66% … Expected 2.50% … Previous 2.37%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -21.9

13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.0% … Previous 0.6%

14:15 19:45 US Ind Prodn
… Exp -0.5% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.9%

14:15 19:45 US Cap Util
… Exp 76.9% … Expected 77.7% … Previous 77.6%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal
… Exp -16.6 … Expected -18.3 … Previous -18.9 … Actual -17.4

7:30 13:00 CH CPI
… Exp 0.1 … Expected -0.1 … Previous 0.7 … Actual 0.4

10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
… Exp 0.3% … Expected -0.6% … Previous 0.4% …Actual – 1.1%

13:30 19:00 US PPI
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.2%

13:30 19:00 US Core PPI
… Exp 0.1 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.1