Dollar Index has slipped below 107 and looks bearish towards106.00-105.50. Euro on a sustained break past 1.05, can rise further towards 1.06. EURINR above 91, can extend the rise to 91.50. USDJPY and EURJPY are coming off but immediate downside can be limited to 150 and 157/56 respectively. AUDUSD and Pound are nearing the crucial resistances at 0.63 and 1.26 respectively. USDCNY is also coming down but the deeper support at 7.225 can hold for now. USDINR above 86.50, can extend the rise towards 87.00-87.15 in the near term.

Lower than expected US Retail Sales data release at -1.2% (0.0%) led Dollar Index (106.67) to break below 107. Overall, view appears bearish towards 106.00-105.50 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.050) has tested the resistance at 1.05. Further if the rise continues, can get extended to 1.0550-1.0600 in the coming sessions. Only failure to rise past 1.05 can bring it lower towards 1.04.

EURINR (91.0495) has risen past 91 and if sustained, can test higher resistance at 91.50. Thereafter, whether the rise continues, or halts will have to be seen.

EURJPY (159.40) continues to fall further but a fall below 157-156 is not expected for now. Either from current levels or upon testing the mentioned targets, EURJPY can rise back later.

Yen strengthened post the stronger than expected GPD release at 0.7% (0.3%) Dollar-Yen (151.62) . The pair could be vulnerable to test 151-150 on the downside.

USDCNY (7.2502) is headed towards the support around 7.225 region. While it holds, a bounce back towards previous levels is anticipated in the near term.

Aussie (0.6359) has broken above 0.6350 but still needs to see a strong break past 0.64 to turn bullish in the near term. Pound (1.2590) is nearing the upper end of its range 1.23-1.26. Need to see whether rise extends further, or pair fall back within the range.

USDINR (86.6640) continues to trade above 86.50. It can eventually rise higher towards 87.00-87.15 in the near term. Overall, a range of 86.50-87.15 is likely to hold for a while.

The US Treasury yields have declined further. They have room to fall more and test their key supports again. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if a reversal is happening or not. The German Yields remain stable. They have to sustain above their immediate support to keep alive the chances of rising back. Else they can fall more. The 10Yr GoI remains stable near the upper end of its range. The immediate outlook continues to remain unclear. Eventually we expect the yield to break the range on the upside.

The US 10Yr (4.48%) and 30Yr (4.70%) Treasury yields have declined further. They can dip further to test 4.4%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if they are reversing higher again or not.

The German 10Yr (2.43%) and the 30Yr (2.67%) yields remain stable. View remains the same. The yields have to sustain above can fall to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) to keep the chances alive for a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr). Else they can fall to 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7071%) remains stable near the upper end of the 6.6%-6.7250% range. The immediate outlook continues to remain unclear. The bias is positive to break 6.7250% and rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow Jones is holding the range of 44000-45100; a breakout on either side is required to get directional clarity. DAX has fallen slightly. While above 22300-22000, a rise towards 23000 is likely. Nifty so far manages to hold above 22800. Key support near 22800-22500, above which reversal looks possible. Nikkei is trading above 39000. While it stays above 39000, the index could move higher towards 39500-40000. Shanghai held above 3320 and moved to about 3250. A further rise towards 3400-3420 looks possible.

The Dow (44546.08, -0.37%) remains within the 44000-45100 range. We will have to wait for a breakout of this range to get a cue on where the Dow is headed from here. While below 45100, be cautious for a fall to 43000 and lower going forward.

DAX (22513.42, -0.44%) has come-off slightly. But the view remains positive to see 23000 on the upside. Support is at 22300 and 22000.

Nifty (22929.25, -0.44%) fell but is managing to hold above 22800. As mentioned earlier, 22800-23300/23500 can be a trading range for some time. 22800-22500 is a strong long-term support from where we expect the Nifty to reverse higher. We will have to wait and watch.

Nikkei (39164.82, +0.04%) trades above 39000. While it sustains above 39000, within the range of 38000-40000, it could move higher towards 39500-40000.

Shanghai (3350.5675, +0.12%) trades near our target of 3350. A further rise towards 3400-3420 looks possible. The support near 3320-3300 can be seen.

Crude prices may decline towards $ 73/72 (Brent) and $ 68 (WTI) in the near term. Gold and Silver have immediate support near current levels, and as long as these levels hold, we expect a bounce back towards $ 3000 and $ 33.5-34.0, respectively. Copper is likely to trade in the range of $ 4.8-$ 4.6 for some time. Natural Gas needs to surpass $ 3.8 to reach higher levels of $ 4.0-$ 4.2.

Brent ($ 74.59) and WTI ($ 70.53) have fallen as expected and could decline further towards $ 73/72 and $ 68, respectively, in the near term.

Gold ($ 2901.60) has fallen sharply from $ 2950 to close at $ 2900 on Friday. As long as it stays above $ 2900, the outlook remains positive, with a potential rise towards $ 3000. A break below $ 2900, however, could see a limited decline to $ 2850.

Silver ($ 32.72) surged to a high of $ 34.24 before reverting to close at $ 32.86 on Friday. The 13-day moving average support is approaching $ 32.5. While this holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 33.5-$ 34.0 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.6615) has pulled back sharply to $ 4.64 after testing a high of $ 4.8365 on Friday. The resistance-turned-support is near $ 4.6. While this holds, we may see a narrow range of $ 4.8-$ 4.6 for some time, until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Natural Gas ($ 3.60) tested a high of $ 3.80 on Friday. A sustained break above this level is required to reach higher levels of $ 4.0-$ 4.2 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, it could revert back to $ 3.4 on the downside.

23:50 05:20 JP GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -21.9

10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
… Exp – … Expected 14.4 … Previous 12.9

DATA FRIDAY
—————
6:30 12:00 IN WPI
… Exp 2.66% … Expected 2.50% … Previous 2.37% …Actual 2.38%

13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.0% … Previous 0.8% … Actual – 1.2%

14:15 19:45 US Ind Prodn
… Exp -0.5% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 1.0% … Actual 0.5%

14:15 19:45 US Cap Util
… Exp 76.9% … Expected 77.7% … Previous 77.5% …Actual 77.8%