Dollar Index is holding the interim support around 106.50 region quite well, but the upside could be limited to 107.00-107.50. Euro is trading below its resistance of 1.05 and can extend the fall towards 1.04. EURINR can trade within a narrow region of 91.50-90.50. USDJPY and EURJPY are coming off, but immediate downside can be limited to 150 and 157/56 respectively. AUDUSD and Pound needs to see a strong break past 0.64 and 1.26 respectively to turn bullish. USDCNY above 7.225 can rise back towards 7.30. USDINR above 86.50, can extend the rise towards 87.00-87.15 in the near term.

Dollar Index (106.87) recovered a bit from its interim support around 106.50 itself. A decisive break below 106.50 can take it towards 106.00-105.50 in the near term. The upside could be limited to 107.00-107.50.

EURUSD (1.0470) is holding well below the resistance of 1.05 and can extend the ongoing fall towards 1.04 as well. Overall, a break past 1.05 or a fall below 1.04 will be needed for further directional clarity.

EURINR (90.9881) could not sustain its rise past 91 and started coming off from 91.18 itself. A narrow range of 91.50-90.50 can hold for now.

EURJPY (158.94) is not anticipated to fall below 157-156 for now. Either from current levels or upon testing the mentioned targets, EURJPY can rise back later.

Dollar-Yen (151.83) has immediate support just below the current levels and while it holds, a bounce back towards 152-153 can be seen. A fall below 150 is not anticipated for now.

USDCNY (7.2715) limited the fall to 7.2443 itself and started rising back. While above 7.225, pair can rise back towards 7.30 or even 7.35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6345) needs to see a strong break past 0.64 to turn bullish in the near term. Else while below 0.64, it can be vulnerable to fall back towards 0.63/62 on the downside. Pound (1.2605) will have to sustain above 1.26 to extend the rise towards 1.28 in the near term, else it can fall back again within its range of 1.26-1.23.

USDINR (86.6640) can eventually rise higher towards 86.90-87.00 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and stable. The yields can dip further from here to test their support. The price action after this fall will need a close watch to see if a reversal is happening or not. The German yields have risen sharply. The view is bullish. The yields can rise further from here. The 10Yr GoI is inching down from its upper end of its range. The near-term outlook is mixed. Broadly the sideways remains intact for now.

The US 10Yr (4.50%) and 30Yr (4.70%) Treasury yields remain lower and stable. A test of 4.4%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) looks likely now. Need to see if the yields are reversing higher after that or not. .

The German 10Yr (2.49%) and the 30Yr (2.74%) yields have risen sharply. They are holding well above 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr). A rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) can be seen now.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6930%) is inching down from the upper end of its 6.6%-6.7250% range. The immediate outlook continues to remain unclear. The broader bias is positive to break 6.7250% and rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow Jones was closed yesterday. DAX has moved up sharply to 22800 and is expected to extend the gains towards 23000. Nifty held above 22700 and has moved up. Further, it needs a rise past 23000 to move higher towards 23400. Nikkei remains steady above 39000 and can rise to 39500-40000. Shanghai hovers near 3350. Watch price action at 3350 to see whether it rises to 3400-3420 or comes down to 3320-3300.

The Dow (44546.08) was closed yesterday.

DAX (22798.09, +1.26%) has risen sharply. The bullish view is intact to see 23000 on the upside. 

Nifty (22959.50, 0.13%  ) has risen back well from the low of 22725. A strong follow-through rise above 23000 from here can take the Nifty up to 23300-23400 in the coming days. 

Nikkei (39296.06, +0.31%) trades above 39000. While above 39000, a rise towards 39500-40000 looks possible.

Shanghai (3352.7219, -0.09%) oscillating near 3350. Monitor price action around 3350 closely to get directional clarity. A sustained rise past 3350 would take the index higher to 3400-3420. Else, the index could retreat to 3320-3300.

Crude oil prices remain biased for a decline toward $ 73/$ 72 (Brent) and $ 68 (WTI) in the near term. Gold and silver are expected to rise toward $ 2950-$ 3000 and $ 33.5-$ 34.0, respectively. Copper and natural gas look bearish, with potential falls to $ 4.5-$ 4.4 and $ 3.4, respectively, in the near term.

Brent ($ 75.14) and WTI ($ 71.18) have seen slight rises, but the outlook remains unchanged, with expectations of a decline toward $ 73/$ 72 and $ 68, respectively, in the near term.

Gold ($ 2909.60) fell to a low of $ 2887 yesterday but managed to close above $ 2900. As long as it stays above $ 2900, we expect a rise toward $ 2950-$ 3000 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 32.69) is holding above $ 32.5 as expected, and as long as it remains above this level, a rise toward $ 33.0-$ 33.5-$ 34.0 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.5775) has sharply fallen to test a low of $ 4.56 yesterday. If it remains below $ 4.6, further declines toward $ 4.5-$ 4.4 can occur in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.57) has pulled back to $ 3.6. It needs to surpass $ 3.8 to move further upward towards $ 4.0-$ 4.2. Otherwise, it could fall further toward $ 3.4 in the near term.

3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 4.10% … Previous 4.35%

7:00 12:30 UK Unemp
… Exp 4.6% … Expected 4.5% … Previous 4.4%

13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
… Exp – … Expected 2.0% … Previous 1.8%

13:00 01:30 US TICS
… Exp – … Expected 149.1 … Previous 79.0

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
23:50 05:20 JP GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3% … Actual 0.7%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -21.94 … Actual – 22.99

10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
… Exp – … Expected 14.4 … Previous 13.3 … Actual 16.6