Dollar Index needs to see a rise past 107.25 to turn bullish again. Euro can extend the fall towards 1.04. EURINR can trade within a narrow region of 91.50-90.50. USDJPY can rise towards 153 or even 154 as anticipated and EURJPY has immediate downside limited to 157/56. AUDUSD is trading within a narrow range of 0.63-0.64, while Pound has risen past 1.26 and if sustained, can extend the rise towards 1.28 in the near term. USDCNY can rise back towards 7.30. USDINR can extend the rise towards 87.00-87.15 in the near term. US Housing starts data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (106.87) has bounced well from the support around 106.50. Still a sustained rise past 107.25 will be needed for the index to turn bullish again. Else, any break below 106.50 can take it towards 106.00-105.50 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.0470) can extend the ongoing fall towards 1.04. Thereafter, either a fall below 1.04 or a break past 1.05 will be needed for further directional clarity.

EURINR (90.9881) is trading lower within its narrow range of 91.50-90.50 and any break below 90.50 can drag it lower towards 90.00-89.50.

EURJPY (158.82) remained stable yesterday. The cross is not anticipated to fall below 157-156 for now. Either from current levels or upon testing the mentioned targets, EURJPY can rise back later.

Dollar-Yen (151.99) as anticipated has bounced well from the support around 151.20 region. Further if the rise sustains, can get extended to 153 or even 154. A fall below 150 is not anticipated for now.

USDCNY (7.2715) above 7.225, pair can rise back towards 7.30 or even 7.35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6355) since the last few sessions has been trading within a very narrow range of 0.63-0.64, break past which will be needed to turn bullish in the near term. Else, it can be vulnerable to fall back towards 0.6250-0.6200 on the downside.

Pound (1.2615) looks stable above 1.26 for now. The rise can extend the rise towards 1.28 in the near term. Only failure to sustain above 1.26 can bring it back within its range of 1.26-1.23.

USDINR (86.9090) is slowly inching higher and can test our target of 87.05-87.15 soon before eventually falling back towards 86.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. A further rise from here will reduce the chances of the dip to test their support mentioned yesterday. It can then take the yields further higher. The German yields remain stable. While they sustain above their support the outlook is bullish to see more rise from here. The 10Yr continues to dip. A break below the immediate support can take it down towards the lower end of its range.

The US 10Yr (4.55%) and 30Yr (4.77%) Treasury yields have risen back sharply. A strong rise above 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) from here will be bullish to see 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). The next couple of days movement is very important.

The German 10Yr (2.49%) and the 30Yr (2.74%) yields remain stable. While above 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr), the view is bullish to see a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.85% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6859%) continues to dip within the 6.6%-6.7250% range. A break below 6.6750% can take it down towards the lower end of the range. From a big picture, we expect the yield to break the range above 6.7250% and rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow Jones remains steady and is holding the range of 44000-45100 intact. DAX has risen up and is heading towards 23000. Nifty is holding above 22800 and could rise past 23000 and rise to 23500. A break below 22800-22700 would extend the fall to 22500. Nikkei trades lower but is holding above 39000. While it stays above 39000, a rise towards 39500-40000 looks possible. Shanghai initially came down to 3320 and has risen to 3350. A sustained rise past 33550 would take the index towards 3400-3420.

The Dow (44556.34, +0.02%) remains stable within the 44000-45100 range. We will have to wait for a breakout of this range. Have to be careful, as a break below 44000 will be bearish to see 43000 and lower levels.

DAX (22844.50, +0.20%) continues to rise and keeps intact our bullish view to see 23000 on the upside.
 
Nifty (22945.30, -0.06%) continues to sustain well above 22800. That increases the chances of witnessing a break above 23000 and a rise to 23300-23500. A break below 22800-22700 might now be needed to bring the index under pressure to see 22500.

Nikkei (39108.83, -0.41%) trades above 39000. While it sustains above 39000, a rise towards 39500-40000 is likely.

Shanghai (3350.0760, +0.76%) is trading near 3350. A decisive rise past 3350 would take the index higher to 3400-3420. Else, the index could retreat to 3320-3300.ex higher to 3400-3420. Else, the index could retreat to 3320-3300.

Crude oil prices remain bearish, with a target of $ 73/$ 72 for Brent and $ 68 for WTI in the near term. Gold and Silver have risen as expected and could continue to rise toward 3000 and 33.5-34.0, respectively, in the coming weeks. Copper must stay below 4.6 to remain bearish toward 4.4; otherwise, it may range between 4.57-4.8 for some time. Natural Gas is facing resistance near 4.0, and as long as this holds, a decline toward 3.8-3.6 is possible in the coming sessions.

Brent ($ 75.99) and WTI ($ 71.98) have risen to their immediate resistance levels following a Bloomberg report suggesting that OPEC+ is considering delaying the planned monthly supply increases, which are set to begin in April. While the resistance holds, we maintain our outlook for a decline toward $ 73/$ 72 and $ 68, respectively, in the near term.

Gold ($ 2954.80) has bounced back sharply to 2950, in line with our expectations, and could rise further toward 3000 in the near term. We expect a range of 3000-2850 to hold for some time.

Silver ($ 33.31) has moved above 33, as anticipated, and may continue to rise toward 33.5-34.0 in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 4.5775) is holding just above its immediate support level. It needs to break below this level to become bearish toward 4.4. Otherwise, it could rise toward 4.7-4.8 and remain within a range of 4.57-4.8 for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9630) has surged from a low of 3.55 to 4.01, driven by forecasts of colder weather in the US. The immediate resistance near 4.0 must be broken for further upward movement toward 4.2-4.4. Otherwise, it could revert to the 3.8-3.6 on the downside.

7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
… Exp 3.4% … Expected 2.8% … Previous 2.6%

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
… Exp 1345K … Expected 1390K … Previous 1499K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 4.10% … Previous 4.35% … Actual 4.10%

7:00 12:30 UK Unemp
… Exp 4.6% … Expected 4.5% … Previous 4.4%

13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
… Exp – … Expected 2.0% … Previous 1.8%

13:00 01:30 US TICS
… Exp – … Expected 149.1 … Previous 79.0