The Dollar Index and Euro both hare trading near the crucial levels. Whether the Index will rise past 107.25 or falls below 106.50 and similarly will Euro fall below 1.04 or not is uncertain at the moment. EURINR can trade within a narrow region of 91.50-90.50. USDJPY has been coming off and watch price action closely around 150 to see whether it holds or extends the fall towards 148 initially. EURJPY is nearing the support around 156. AUDUSD is trading within a narrow range of 0.63-0.64, while Pound has risen past 1.26 and if sustained, can extend the rise towards 1.28 in the near term. USDCNY can rise back towards 7.30. USDINR was closed yesterday. The rise towards 87.00-87.15 remains intact in the near term. US Philifed Index data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (107.065) tested 107.38 but could not sustain and started coming off. Immediate resistance is coming at 107.25, break past which will be needed for the index to rise further. On the downside, strong fall below 106.50 can open the doors for 106.00-105 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.0425) yesterday achieved the target of 1.04 and recovered a bit from there. Now, either a fall below 1.04 or a break past 1.05 will be needed for further directional clarity. A break past 1.05 can bring 1.06 back into picture and at the same time, fall below 1.04 can take it towards the deeper support at 1.0350-1.0300. Wait and watch for now.

EURINR (90.5686) is trading near the lower end of its narrow range of 91.50-90.50 and any break below 90.50 can drag it lower towards 90.00-89.50.

EURJPY (156.99) is nearing the support at 156. Upon testing, preferred view is for the pair to bounce back towards 160 in the near term. Only if a decisive break below 156 if seen, can lead us to revise our view accordingly.

Dollar-Yen (150.56) contrary to our view of seeing a rise towards 153-154, started coming off from the level of 152.315 itself. Price action around 150 will be crucial to watch as to whether it holds or extends the fall further, with initially target 148 on the downside.

USDCNY (7.2786) continues to trade higher and above 7.225, pair can rise back towards 7.30 or even 7.35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6348) remained stable within its very narrow range of 0.63-0.64, break past which will be needed to turn bullish in the near term. Else, it can be vulnerable to fall back towards 0.6250-0.6200 on the downside.

Pound (1.2591) failed to sustain its rise past 1.26 and started falling from the level of 1.2639 itself. Only a sustained rise past 1.26 can keep the target of 1.28 alive. Else, it can be vulnerable to fall back within its range of 1.26-1.23.

USDINR (86.9090) was closed yesterday on the account of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti. The pair is likely to test our target of 87.05-87.15 soon before eventually falling back towards 86.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. Failure to rise and break the intermediate resistance can take the yields down in the near-term. In that case a sideways move is possible for some time. The German Yields have risen sharply and are moving up in line with our expectation. They have room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI remains stable but lower. A dip to the lower end of its range is possible if it breaks below the immediate support.

The US 10Yr (4.52%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields have dipped slightly. A strong rise above 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) is needed to gain strength and rise to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall back to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.6% (30Yr). In that case 4.4%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.85% (30Yr) can be the trading range for some time.

The German 10Yr (2.56%) and the 30Yr (2.80%) yields have risen sharply. The rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.85% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6859%)) was closed yesterday

The Dow Jones continues to hold the range of 44000-45100; it needs a breakout on either side to get a clearer view. DAX sharply turned around from 22935. While above 223000-22000, a rise towards looks possible. Nifty lacks the strength to exhibit a sustained rise; however, bias remains, seeing a rise past 23000 to 23300-23500. A break below 22700 would take the index lower to 22500. Nikkei, within the range of 38000-40000, contrary to our view of seeing a rise to 39500, broke below 39000 and has fallen to 38500. A break below 38500 would lead to a further fall to 38000. Shanghai is trading near 3350. If it fails to rise past 3350, then it can come down to test the support of 3320-3300.

The Dow (44627.59, +0.16%) is moving up within its 44000-45100 range. A strong break above 45100 is needed to go up to 45500 and higher. Else the danger of a breaking 44000 and seeing a fall to 43000 and lower will remain alive.

DAX (22433.63, -1.80%) has declined sharply. But support is at 22300 and 22000 while above which the rise to 23000 is still possible.
 
Nifty (22932.90, -0.05%) broke 23000 but did not sustain. 22800-23050 looks likely to be the range now. While above 22800, the bias is positive to see a rise to 23300-23500. Nifty has to break below 22700 to see a fall to 22500.

Nikkei (38579.66, -1.49%) has come down to 38500. A break below 38500 would lead to an extended fall towards 38000.

Shanghai (3344.3378, -0.21%) continues to trade near 3350. A sustained rise past 3350 would take the index higher to 3400-3420. Else, the index could retreat to 3320-3300.

Crude oil prices have tested their respective resistance levels and could decline in the near term, with a range of $ 77-$ 73 (Brent) and $ 73-$ 69 (WTI). The outlook for Gold and Silver remains bullish, targeting $ 3000 and $ 34, respectively, in the near term. Copper needs to break below $ 4.50 to see further declines toward $ 4.20. Natural Gas must surpass $ 4.40 to remain bullish, aiming for $ 4.60-$ 4.80 in the coming weeks.

Brent ($ 75.13) and WTI ($ 72.05) tested their immediate resistance levels yesterday. While the resistance holds, we could see a decline towards $ 73 and $ 69, respectively, in the near term. A range of $ 77-$ 73 and $ 73-$ 69 may hold for the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 2956.20) dipped slightly to $ 2933 yesterday, but the outlook remains intact, with a rise towards $ 3000 expected in the near term. We anticipate a range of $ 3000-$ 2900/$ 2850 to hold for some time.

Silver ($ 33.23) has fallen slightly, but the outlook remains bullish, targeting $ 33.50-$ 34.00 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.5690) is attempting to break lower, but the 21-day moving average provides support near $ 4.50. A sustained break below this level is required to continue its bearish momentum toward $ 4.20.

Natural Gas ($ 4.35) broke above $ 4.00 and extended the rise to $ 4.39 yesterday. It now needs to break above $ 4.40 to maintain bullish momentum towards $ 4.60-$ 4.80. Otherwise, it could revert to $ 4.00 on the downside.

0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 19.7K … Previous 56.3K

13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
… Exp – … Expected 19.4 … Previous 44.3

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
… Exp 3.4% … Expected 2.8% … Previous 2.6% … Actual 3.0%

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
… Exp 1345K … Expected 1390K … Previous 1499K … Actual 1366K