The Dollar Index came down sharpy on lower US Philifed Index and Trumps threat of more trade tariffs. A decisive break below 106 can open the doors for 105.50-105.00 on the downside. Euro if sustained above 1.05, can head towards 1.06. EURINR can trade within a narrow region of 90.50-91.50. USDJPY has limited upside to 152 and target of 148 is kept alive until further clarity. EURJPY has bounce well from support around 156 and can head towards 160 soon. AUDUSD and Pound needs to sustain above 0.64 and 1.26 to extend the rise towards 0.65/66 and 1.28 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is nearing the support around 7.225 region. USDINR had initially slipped near the support around 86.50 but while it holds target of 87.00-87.15 remains intact in the near term. US Existing Home Sales data release is scheduled today.

US Philifed Index releasing lower than previous at 18.1 (44.3) and Trumps trade tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, car imports and wood; feared global trade war. As a result, Dollar Index (106.474) fell sharply to the low of 106.334. Further if the fall continues below 106, can open the doors for 105.50-105.00 in the near term. Only a sustained rise past 107 if seen can negate the anticipated fall.

EURUSD (1.0497) on a sustained rise past 1.05, can head towards 1.06 in the near term. Immediate support is at 1.0450, above which the pair is likely to rise higher.

EURINR (90.8483) yesterday tested 90.3351 on the downside before rising back. Overall, the narrow range of 90.50-91.50 can hold for now.

EURJPY (158.02) in line with our view, limited the fall to 156.316 and has recovered well from there. While above 156, preferred view is for the pair to bounce back towards 160 in the near term. Only if a decisive break below 156 if seen, can lead us to revise our view accordingly.

Dollar-Yen (150.50) as feared had initially slipped below 150 to the low of 149.28. Currently it has risen well from the low, but the upside could be limited to 152. Our target of 148 is kept alive for now until further clarity.

USDCNY (7.2406) is coming off sharply towards the support at 7.225. hints that Trump might forge a new trade deal. Supported the fall. Still while above 7.225, our preferred view is for it to bounce back again. Targets of 7.30/35 are kept on hold for now.

Aussie (0.6402) has finally risen past 0.64 and pair can extend the ongoing rise towards 0.65 or even 0.66 as well. Immediate support around 0.63 region.

Pound (1.2670) has again risen past 1.26 and if sustained, can target 1.28 in the near term. Only a break below 1.26 can bring it back within its range of 1.26-1.23.

USDINR (86.4820) came down sharply to the low of 86.5825 but while the support around 85.50 holds, our targets of 87.00-87.15 remains intact in the near term. Only a decisive break below 86.50 if seen can drag it further to 86 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. They have to break their immediate resistance to go up. Else they can dip in the near-term and remain in a range for some time. The German yields remain stable. The view is bullish, and the yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI is stuck in a narrow range within the broad range. The immediate outlook is unclear.

The US 10Yr (4.51%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields remain stable. View remains the same. While below 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) the yields can fall and remain in a range of 4.4%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.85% (30Yr) for some time. A break above 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) is needed to up to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.53%) and the 30Yr (2.79%) yields have dipped slightly. However, the bullish view is intact to see a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.85% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7043%) seems to be stuck between 6.6750% and 6.7250% for now with the broad 6.6%-6.7250% range. Immediate outlook is unclear. Broadly we expect the yield to breach 6.7250% and rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow Jones has come down near 44000. A break below 44000 would lead to a further fall towards 43000-42000. DAX dipped further. It can come down to test 22000 levels. Nifty, while above 23800-23700, could rise past 23050 and move higher to 23300-23500; this looks possible. Nikkei is sustaining above 38500 and is approaching 39000. Shanghai is trading around 3350. Watch price action near 3350 to get directional clarity.

The Dow (44176.65, -1.01%) has come down sharply within its 44000-45100 range. A break below 44000 will be bearish to see 43000-42000 on the downside.

DAX (22314.65, -0.53%) has declined further. It can test 22000 and has to rise back from there to keep alive the chances of seeing 23000 on the upside. Else there is a danger of seeing a deeper fall to 21000 and lower. We will have to wait and watch.

Nifty (22,913.15, -0.09%) continues to oscillate within the 22800-23050 range. While above the 22800-22700 support we expect the Nifty to break 23050 and rise to 23300-23500. Only a break below 22700 will bring it under pressure for a fall to 22500—a strong long-term support.

Nikkei (38719.29, +0.11%) is holding above 38500 and is attempting a rise towards 39000. A rise past 39000 would take the index higher to 39500-40000. Else, it could come down to retest to 38500-38000.

Shanghai (3352.9933, +0.07%) continues to trade near 3350. Watch price action near 3350 to get directional clarity, whether it moves higher to 3400-3420. Else, retreats to 3320-3300.

Brent and WTI are expected to trade within the range of $ 77–$ 73 and $ 73–$ 69, respectively. Gold and Silver remain bullish with targets of $ 3000 and $ 34. Copper has bounced back from its immediate support and could move further up towards $ 4.65–$ 4.70 in the near term. Natural Gas looks bearish, targeting $ 3.80 while trading below $ 4.50.

Brent ($ 76.41) and WTI ($ 72.40) are currently trading below their immediate resistance levels. The ranges of $ 77–$ 73 and $ 73–$ 69 are expected to hold for some time.

Gold ($ 2952.10) is gradually moving towards $ 3000. A range of $ 3000–$ 2900/$ 2850 is likely to hold in the near term.

Silver ($ 33.38) has risen as anticipated and can rally further towards $ 33.50–$ 34.00 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.5930) has seen a corrective rise from the 21-Day moving average support, as expected. While this support holds, a further rise towards $ 4.65–$ 4.70 is possible in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 4.16) has failed to break above $ 4.50 and has reverted sharply to $ 4.03 on the downside. As long as it remains below $ 4.50, a further decline towards $ 3.80 seems likely in the near term.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
… Exp – … Expected -22 … Previous -22

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
… Exp 3.9 ..Expected 3.1 … Previous 3.7

14:00 19:30 US Ex Home Sales
… Exp 4349K … Expected 4130K … Previous 4240K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 19.7K … Previous 60.00K … Actual 44.00K

13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
… Exp – … Expected 19.4 … Previous 44.3 … Actual 18.1