The Dollar Index extended the fall to 106.13 after the Germany’s Election results. A decisive break below 106 can open the doors for 105.50-105.00 on the downside. Euro if sustained above 1.05, can head towards 1.06. EURINR is rising higher within a narrow region of 90.50-91.50. USDJPY has limited upside to 152 and can target 148 on the downside. EURJPY has bounce well from support around 156 and can head towards 158/60 soon. AUDUSD and Pound needs to sustain above 0.64 and 1.26 to extend the rise towards 0.65/66 and 1.28 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is nearing the support around 7.225 region. USDINR below 86.75/80, can extend the fall towards 86.15 in the coming weeks.

Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s conservative opposition, is now expected to form a coalition government. As a result, Dollar Index (106.474) extended the fall to 106.13. Further if the fall continues below 106, can open the doors for 105.50-105.00 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.0525) gained strength post German elections results. While above 1.05, it can target 1.06 or even 1.0650 in the near term. Immediate support is at 1.0450, above which the pair is likely to rise higher.

EURINR (91.1217) is nearing the upper end of its range of 90.50-91.50, which can hold for now.

EURJPY (157.15) while above 156/55, can bounce back towards 158-160 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (149.23) continues to trade below 150 and can soon test our target of 148 in the coming sessions. Thereafter, whether the fall extends towards deeper support around 145 or it halts at 148 itself will have to be seen. Any rise from current levels if seen could be limited to 152.

USDCNY (7.2387) is nearing the support at 7.225. Still while above 7.225, our preferred view is for it to bounce back again. Targets of 7.30/35 are kept on hold for now. Watch price action closely around 7.225.

Aussie (0.6387) has slipped slightly below 0.64 again. Only a strong break past 0.64 can extend the ongoing rise towards 0.65 or even 0.66 as well. Immediate support around 0.63 region.

Pound (1.2683) above 1.26, can extend the ongoing rise towards 1.28 in the near term. Only a break below 1.26 if seen, can bring it back within its range of 1.26-1.23.

USDINR (86.5750) has immediate resistance coming around 86.75/80, below which it can fall towards 86.15 in the coming weeks, before eventually rising higher.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply and are coming closer to their key support. Failure to rise back from this support can drag the yields further lower. The German yields have come down, but the trend remains up. The yields can rise back and move higher in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI continues to remain stuck in a narrow range within its broad range. The immediate outlook remains unclear.

The US 10Yr (4.43%) and 30Yr (4.68%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. The fall to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) seems to be happening much faster than expected. Failure to bounce back from 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (10Yr) can drag them to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.5% (10Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.47%) and the 30Yr (2.72%) yields have declined but the trend remains up. We retain the view of the yields rising to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.85% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7065%) is inching up within its narrow 6.6750%- 6.7250% range. The immediate outlook remains unclear. 6.6%-6.7250% is the broader trading range. Bias is bullish to break 6.7250% and rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow Jones took a nosedive below 43500 and its likely extend the downside towards 43000-42000. DAX is heading towards testing 22000. If it sustains above 22000, then a rise towards 23000 is likely. Nifty trades near crucial support near 22700-22500, we expected halt of downtrend and rise past 23000. Nikkei is closed today. Shanghai trades above 3350. While it stays above 3350, a rise towards 3400-3420 can be expected.

The Dow (43428.02, -1.69%) has declined sharply, breaking  below 44000. The Dow can now test 43000-42000 going forward.

DAX (22287.56, -0.12%) continues to fall. It has to sustain above 22000 in order to rise back towards 23000 and avoid the fall to 21000. Wait and watch.
 
Nifty (22795.90, -0.51%) has crucial long-term support at 22700-22500 which we expect to hold and halt the downtrend. A rise back to 23000 and higher levels is possible this week. Further fall from here can be a good long-term buying opportunity.

Nikkei (38776.72, +0.26%) is closed for the day on account of the Emperor’s birthday.

Shanghai (3378.0432, -0.03%) continues to trade above 3350. While it sustain above 3350, a rise towards to 3400-3420 looks possible. Else, it could retreat to 3320-3300.

Crude prices have fallen sharply on Friday due to weak US economic data. As long as the immediate support levels hold, we expect the range of $ 77-$ 73 (Brent) and $ 73-$ 69 (WTI) to sustain for some time. Gold and Silver could rise towards $ 3000 and $ 33.5-$ 34.0, respectively, in the near term. Copper must break below $ 4.5 to turn bearish, targeting $ 4.4-$ 4.2, otherwise, it could bounce back to $ 4.6-$ 4.7 on the higher side. Natural Gas appears to be range-bound between $ 4.6- $ 3.9/3.8 for the time being.

Brent ($ 74.25) and WTI ($ 70.15) have fallen sharply in line with our expectations, driven by weak US economic data. The immediate support levels are at $ 73 and $ 69. As long as these levels hold, the range of $ 77-$ 73 and $ 73-$ 69 is expected to remain intact for some time.

Gold ($ 2943.30) has been hovering near $ 2950 for the last few sessions. Immediate resistance at $ 3000 could be tested in the near term, and as long as it holds, Gold may trade within a range of $ 3000-$ 2900. Alternatively, a sustained break above $ 3000 would signal further bullishness, potentially targeting $ 3100-$ 3300 in the coming months.

Silver ($ 32.80) fell to its immediate support on Friday. While the support holds, we maintain our outlook for a rise towards $ 33.5-$ 34.0 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.5475) has retreated to its immediate support. Only a sustained break below this level would drag prices further lower towards $ 4.4-$ 4.2. Otherwise, the outlook remains positive for a rise towards $ 4.6-$ 4.7 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9740) opened lower near $ 4.0, with immediate support around $ 3.9-$ 3.8. As long as this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 4.2-$ 4.4 is possible in the near term, giving a range of $ 4.6-$ 3.9/$ 3.8 for some time.

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Bus Climate
… Exp 84.4 … Expected 85.8 … Previous 85.1

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Bus Situations
… Exp 83.4 … Expected 86.5 … Previous 86.1

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Bus Expn
… Exp 83.8 … Expected 85.2 … Previous 84.2

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
… Exp 2.1% … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.5%

DATA FRIDAY
—————
23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
… Exp -19 … Expected -22 … Previous -22 … Actual – 20

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
… Exp 3.9 ..Expected 3.1 … Previous 3.7 … Actual 4.0

14:00 19:30 US Ex Home Sales
… Exp 4349K … Expected 4130K … Previous 4290K … Actual 4080K