Dollar Index needs a strong break past 107 to rise further. Else it can be vulnerable to fall towards 105.50-105.00. Euro is nearing the immediate support around current levels. Preferred view is to see a bounce back towards 1.0550. EURINR can trade within its narrow region of 90.50-91.50/92.00. USDJPY has limited upside to 152 and target of 148 is kept open for now. EURJPY is trading near the crucial support at 156. AUDUSD is breaks below 0.63, can be vulnerable to test 0.62 on the downside. Pound needs to sustain above 1.26 to extend the rise towards 1.28 in the near term. USDCNY can extend the rise towards the target of 7.28. USDINR looks uncertain at the moment. Need to see whether it will remain ranged within 86.90-87.30 region or rise past it. US Durable Goods and US GDP data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (106.613) extended the rise further due to tariffs concerns on Mexico and Canada. Still, a sustained rise past 107 will be needed to extend the ongoing rise further. Until then, fall towards 105.50-105.00 cannot be fully ruled out.

EURUSD (1.0473) is unable to see a sustained rise past 1.05. The pair is nearing the immediate support around current levels. While it holds, preferred view is to see a bounce back towards 1.050-1.055 again. Conversely, break below 1.045 can drag it further to 1.040 or even 1.035 as well. Watch price action closely around 1.045.

EURINR (91.3762) has resistance between 91.50-92.00 region, below which cross can remain ranged within 90.50-91.50-92.00 for now.

EURJPY (156.27) observed the high of 157.31 before coming down. Currently it is hovering around the crucial support at 156. Ned to see whether it holds and produces a bounce back towards 158-160 or breaks below it. Watch price action closely.

Dollar-Yen (149.21) has limited upside to 152. On the downside, any break below 148 if seen, can trigger a fall towards the deeper support at 145.

USDCNY (7.2677) is rising as expected and can soon test our target of 7.28 as well in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6301) needs to rise past 0.64 to turn bullish again. Else, any break below 0.63 if seen, can drag it towards 0.62 in the near term.

While the Pound (1.2662) sustains above 1.26, the target of 1.28 is kept alive.

USDINR (87.0860) was closed yesterday. Immediate view is uncertain. Either it can trade within 86.90-87.30 region, or it can break past 87.30 to head towards 87.40/50. Wait and watch for now.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply and are poised near a crucial support. Failure to rise back from this support can lead to a deeper fall going forward. We will have to wait and watch. The US PCE data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have also declined but support is coming up. We expect the supports to hold and the yield to rise back. The broader view is bullish. The 10Yr GoI is still stuck inside a narrow range within its broad range. The immediate outlook is unclear.

The US 10Yr (4.27%) and 30Yr (4.63%) Treasury yields have declined sharply. 4.25% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) are crucial supports which have to hold to trigger a rise back to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.43%) and the 30Yr (2.69%) yields have come down but have support at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr). While the supports hold, the bullish view will remain intact to see a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.85% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7065%) remains unclear and stuck in the narrow 6.6750%- 6.7250% range. The broader trading range is 6.6%-6.7250%. We expect a bullish breakout of this range and a rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow Jones is in a range of 43280-43960; however, bias remains seeing a fall towards 43000-42000. DAX has risen well and is expected to rise towards 23000-23500. Nifty is holding well at 22500 as of now. A rise past 22700 is required to negate the downside risk, and a rise towards 23000 could be seen. Nikkei is holding above 38000 and is likely to rise towards 39000 and higher. Shanghai is sustaining above 3350 and is expected to move higher towards 3400-3450.

The Dow (43433.12, -0.43%) is stuck between 43280 and 43960. The bias is negative to break 43280 and fall to 43000 initially and 42000 eventually.

DAX (22794.11, +1.71%) has sustained well above 22200 and has risen well. That keeps the bias bullish to break 23000 and rise to 23500.

Nifty (22547.55, -0.03%) is managing to sustain above 22500. A strong rise above 22700 will give some relief and take the index up to 23000. We expect the Nifty to hold above 22500 and would prefer to be on the buy side of the market.

Nikkei (38198.91.94, +0.15%) is holding above 38000. While 38000 holds, the index could witness a rise to 39000-40000. If a break below 38000 is seen, then a sharp fall to 35000 and lower can be seen. A break below 38000 looks less probable.

Shanghai (3373.3664, -0.24%) is holding above 3350-3330. While above 3350-3330, a rise towards 3400-3450 looks possible.

Crude prices have fallen sharply, and while below their immediate support levels, a further decline towards $ 70-$ 68 (Brent) and $ 67-$ 65 (WTI) could be seen in the coming weeks. Gold and Silver could bounce back towards $ 3000 and $ 33.0-$ 33.5, respectively, as long as they stay above $ 2900 and $ 32. Copper needs to break below $ 4.5 to see a further drop towards $ 4.4; otherwise, it may bounce back to $ 4.6-$ 4.8 on the higher side. Natural Gas could rise towards $ 4.2-$ 4.4 if it holds above its immediate support.

Brent ($ 72.80) and WTI ($ 68.84) have fallen sharply and have slightly broken below their immediate support levels. If they sustain below these support levels, a further decline towards $ 70-$ 68 (Brent) and $ 67-$ 65 (WTI) could be expected in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 2922.30) has dropped to its immediate support near $ 2900, contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise towards $ 3000. As long as the support holds, we maintain our view of a rise towards $ 3000 in the coming weeks. A sustained break below $ 2900 would turn bearish, targeting $ 2850-$ 2800, but this seems unlikely at the moment.

Silver ($ 32.39) briefly dropped to $ 31.70 on the 25th but has since bounced back, trading above $ 32. As long as it remains above $ 32, it could gradually rise towards $ 32.5-$ 33.0-$ 33.5. However, a sustained break below $ 32 would indicate further bearishness, with interim support near $ 31.5-$ 31.0.

Copper ($ 4.56) tested a high of $ 4.70 before falling back to $ 4.54 yesterday. A sustained break below $ 4.5 could drive prices lower to $ 4.4. Otherwise, while above $ 4.5, a bounce back to $ 4.6-$ 4.8 could be seen in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9820) has fallen from a high of $ 4.1750. As long as the immediate support at $ 3.9 holds, it could bounce back towards $ 4.2-$ 4.4 in the near term.

8:00 13:30 CH GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.4

10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 95.2

13:30 19:00 US Dur Goods Orders
… Exp – … Expected 2.0% … Previous -2.2%

13:30 19:00 US GDP
… Exp – … Expected 2.3% … Previous 2.2%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
… Exp 700K … Expected 677K … Previous 698K