Trump confirmed that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect on Mar 4. Dollar Index has risen past 107 and can head towards 108 as well. Euro has broken below 1.0450 and price action around 1.0350 would be important to see whether it holds or falls further. EURINR is nearing the lower end of its range of 91.50/92.00-90.50. USDJPY has limited upside to 152 and target of 148 is kept open for now. EURJPY is trading near the crucial support at 156. AUDUSD and Pound can fall towards 0.62/61 and 1.25 respectively in the near term. USDCNY tested 7.28 and now can extend the rise towards 7.30 if sustained above current levels. USDINR tested 87.40 on the upside. Now a break past 87.50 if seen, can take it higher at 88. Else, can fall back towards 86.90. US Personal Income and US PCE data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (107.361) has indeed risen past 107 and if sustained, can head towards 108 soon. US PCE and Personal Income scheduled today would be important to watch as it might give better directional clarity on Index. Overall, downside can be limited to 106.00-105.50 for now.

EURUSD (1.0383) in line with our alternate view, slipped below the support around 1.045 and extended the fall to current levels. Now, price action around 1.0350 would be important to see whether it holds or extends the fall towards 1.03 r even lower. Wait and watch for now.

EURINR (90.6615) has been coming off sharply since the last 2-3 sessions and is nearing the lower end of its range of 91.50/92.00-90.50. Any break below 90.50 can open the doors for 90.00-89.50. Else, the range may remain intact for a while.

EURJPY (155.19) broke the support at 156 and tested the low of 154.79 before recovering a bit from there. If the cross continues to fall further, then it would be vulnerable to test 154-152 on the downside. Only a rise past 156 can negate the anticipated fall.

Dollar-Yen (149.52) is consolidating within 149-150 region since the last few sessions. Overall, the pair has limited upside to 152. On the downside, any break below 148 if seen, can trigger a fall towards the deeper support at 145.

USDCNY (7.2869) has achieved our target of 7.28 and if sustained, the ongoing rise can extend towards 7.30 or even higher as well in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6212) as cautioned, pair slipped below 0.63 and is nearing the target of 0.62 on the downside. Upon testing, whether the fall halts or continues towards 0.61 is uncertain at the moment. In either case, a fall below 0.61 is not anticipated for now.

Pound (1.2584) has broken the support at 1.26 and can now head towards the deeper support at 1.25 in the near term.

USDINR (87.0860) as mentioned it rose to the high of 87.41 before coming down. A rise past 87.50 would be needed to move higher towards 88.00. Else, pair could decline further toward 87.00–86.90.

The US Treasury yields have declined further sharply. They have dipped just below their key support. Failure to rise back can drag them lower in the coming days. The US PCE data release today will be important to watch. The German yields remain lower but stable. While they sustain above their immediate support, the bias will remain positive to see a rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI remains stuck in its narrow range. The immediate outlook continues to remain unclear.

The US 10Yr (4.23%) and 30Yr (4.51%) Treasury yields have declined further sharply. They have dipped below 4.25% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). Failure to rise back can drag them down to 4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.41%) and the 30Yr (2.70%) yields remain lower but stable. While above 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) the bias is bullish to see a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.85% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7086%) is stuck around 6.7%. For now, 6.6750%- 6.7250% is the narrow trading range within the broad 6.6%-6.7250% range. Immediate outlook is unclear. But we expect the yield to breach 6.7250% and rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow has fallen below 43280 and looks bearish towards 43000-42000. DAX needs a follow-through rise to keep the bullish view to 23000 alive. Else it could break below 22000 and fall to 21700-21500. Nifty remains stable and is holding the range of 22500-22700; our preferred view is to see a rise past 22700 towards 23000. Nikkei, contrary to our view, after being in the range of 38000-40000 since Oct-24, has given a breakout on the downside and is nearing 37000. Going ahead, while below 38000, a fall towards 36000-35000 looks possible. Shanghai is trading slightly lower could come down the support of 3350-3330, while the support holds a rise towards 3400-3450 remains on the table.

The Dow (43239.50, -0.45%) has declined below 43280 as expected. That keeps the bearish view intact to see 43000 and 42000 on the downside.

DAX (22550.89, -1.07%) has come down sharply. Failure to rise back from here will reduce the chances of the rise above 23000. In turn, it will increase the danger of breaking below 22000 and falling to 21700-21500.

Nifty (22545.05, -0.01%) remains stable and stuck between 22500 and 22700. A break above 22700 will give some relief and take it up to 23000 and higher. We reiterate that our preference is to see the Nifty sustaining above 22500.

Nikkei (37182.04 -2.81%) moved with our less probable view and fell to 37000. Further, while below 38000, a fall towards 36000-35000 looks possible.

Shanghai (3369.1197, -0.56%) trades lower and could test the support near 3350-3330. While it sustains above 3350-3330, a rise towards 3400-3450 looks possible.

Crude prices have rebounded sharply due to expectations of U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico. A range of $ 76-$ 72 (Brent) and $ 72-$ 68 (WTI) is expected to hold for some time. Gold and silver remain weak, but the outlook remains positive, with a potential rise towards $ 3000 and $ 32.5-$ 33.0, respectively. Copper and natural gas are expected to rise towards $ 4.7-$ 4.8 and $ 4.2-$ 4.4, respectively, in the near term.

Brent ($ 73.20) and WTI ($ 70.10) have rebounded sharply as the U.S. confirms tariffs on Canada and Mexico. A range of $ 76-$ 72 and $ 72-$ 68 is expected to hold in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 2890.80) is trading near its immediate support. As long as this support holds, we maintain our view of a rise towards $ 3000 in the coming weeks. A sustained break below $ 2900 would turn bearish, targeting $ 2850-$ 2800, but this scenario seems unlikely at the moment.

Silver ($ 31.88) is attempting to break below $ 32. A sustained break below this level could push the price further down towards $ 31.5-$ 31.0. Otherwise, it could bounce back towards $ 32.5-$ 33.0.

Copper ($ 4.5785) reached a high of $ 4.6685 as expected. While it remains above $ 4.5, a further rise towards $ 4.7-$ 4.8 is likely in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9140) is hovering above its immediate support at $ 3.9. As long as this support holds, a rebound towards $ 4.2-$ 4.4 seems likely in the near term.

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 5.4%

13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
… Exp 1.7% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.4%

13:30 19:00 US PCE M/M
… Exp – … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US Core PCE
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.2%

13:30 19:00 CA GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.3% … Previous -0.2%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
8:00 13:30 CH GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.4 … Actual 0.2

10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate
… Exp 96.4 … Expected 96.0 … Previous 95.3 … Actual 96.3

13:30 19:00 US Dur Goods Orders
… Exp – … Expected 2.0% … Previous -1.8% … Actual 3.1

13:30 19:00 US GDP
… Exp – … Expected 2.3% … Previous 2.2% … Actual 2.3%