Dollar Index is trading near the crucial level of 104, from where a bounce back is possible. Only a confirmed break below 104 if seen, can drag it further to 102 in the near term. Euro can rise towards 1.09 or even 1.10 if Dollar Index breaks below 104, else the EURUSD can witness a corrective fall in the near term. EURINR continues to trade near the crucial resistance zone between 94-95 region. USDJPY has slipped below 148 and is if the fall continues, can extend it further to 145. EURJPY can remain ranged within 162-156 region for now. AUDUSD has risen past 0.63 but a break past 0.64 will be needed to turn bullish. Pound if sustained above current levels, can test 1.30 on the upside. USDNCY above 7.240-7.225, can attempt to rise back towards 7.28 in the near term. USDINR above 86.80, can attempt to rise back towards 87.25 or higher in the near term. Watch out for the US NFP, US Unemployment and US Avg hrly Earnings are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (104.095) yesterday tested the low of 103.76 before stabilizing above 104. Immediate support is coming around current levels, which needs to hold and produce a bounce back towards 105. Else, decisive break below 104 can drag it towards 102 in the medium term.

ECB went ahead with the 25-bps rate cuts yesterday, thereby bringing it down to 2.65% from 2.90%. EURUSD (1.0796) observed the high of 1.0854 before coming down. If the Dollar Index breaks decisively below 104, then Euro could rise towards 1.09 or even 1.10 as well. Else it can cool down a bit. Overall, downside can be limited to 1.06 for now.

EURINR (94.0781) tested the high of 94.3873 and has declined a bit from there. The crucial resistance zone between 94-95 is holding well for now. While it holds, the cross can witness a fall towards 93 or slightly lower in the near term.

EURJPY (159.45) strengthened to the high of 161.28 before fading its gains to near current levels. The mentioned resistance at 162 seems to be holding well and while below it, a broad range of 162-156 can persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (147.67) has indeed slipped below 148 and if sustained, can extend the fall towards the deeper support near 145 region before attempting to rise back. The pair will have to rise past 148 again to bring the range of 152-148 back into picture.

USDCNY (7.2467) is trading near the interim support at 7.24. But while the 7.24 and the deeper support at 7.225 holds, it can attempt to rise back towards 7.28 higher in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6316) has sustained well above 0.63 so far. Still a confirmed rise past higher resistance at 0.64 will be needed for the pair to turn bullish. Till then, it can remain ranged within 0.62-0.64 region.

Pound (1.2885) above 1.28 has scope to extend its rise further to 1.30. Consequently, even if the pair fails to sustain and starts coming off; the maximum downside could be limited to 1.26 for now.

USDINR (86.9940) witnessed a low of 86.87 initially before rising back higher. slipped below 87 to the low of 86.93 yesterday. While above 86.80, there could be scope to see a further rise to the interim resistance at 87.25 or higher at 87.50 in the near term. Only a break below 86.80 can make it vulnerable to test 86.50 on the downside.

The US Treasury yields have come down failing to sustain after the resistance break. Failure to rise back can take them lower again and the expected rise will not happen. The US NFP and the unemployment rate data release today will need a close watch. The German Yields remain higher. If the current momentum sustains, there is room to rise more from here. The ECB cut the interest rates by 25-bps as expected and it was largely a non-event for the market. The 10Yr GoI has come down below its support contrary to our expectation. Failure to rise back will negate our earlier bullish view and take it lower.

The US 10Yr (4.26%) and 30Yr (4.56%) Treasury yields have come down from their highs of 4.35% and 4.64% respectively. Failure to rise back above 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) can drag them down to 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.5%-4.4% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.83%) yield has risen further while the 30Yr (3.07%) remains stable. If the current momentum sustains, a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr) is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6806%) has declined below 6.7% contrary to our expectation. Failure to rise back above 6.7% can drag it down to 6.6%. That in turn will negate our earlier view of seeing a rise to 6.8%-6.85%.

The Dow Jones has fallen below 43000, keeping our bearish view to 42000-41800 intact. DAX has surged above 23400, with resistance around 23600. Watch price action near 23500-23600 closely. Nifty has risen above 22500, and a sustained rise would take the index higher to 22800-23000. Nikkei has fallen to 37000. A break below 37000 would lead to a further fall to 36000. Shanghai has risen to 3380 and looks bullish towards 3400-3450.

The Dow (42579.08, -0.99%) has come down sharply below 43000 again. The bearish view is intact to see 42000-41800 on the downside.

DAX (23419.48, +1.47%) is heading up towards 23500 much faster than expected. Some resistance is around 23600, which will need a close watch.

Nifty (22544.70, +0.93%) has risen above 22500. A further rise above 22600 will be bullish to see 22800-23000. A fall below 22400 is needed to bring back the index under pressure for a fall back to 22000 and lower.

Nikkei (37008.38, -1.85%) has fallen to 37000. A break below 37000 would confirm our view of seeing a fall to 36000-35000.

Shanghai (3382.6083, +0.04%) rose above 3380. A rise past 3380 would open the door for the target of 3400-3450.

Brent and WTI are trading near their immediate support levels, and while these levels hold, we expect a bounce back towards $ 70-$ 71 and $ 68-$ 69, respectively. Gold has to break above $ 2,950 to see a rise towards $ 3,000; otherwise, it remains vulnerable to a fall towards $ 2,900. Silver, Copper, and Natural Gas can fall back to $ 32.5-$ 32.0, $ 4.7-$ 4.6, and $ 4.1-$ 4.0, respectively, in the near term while they remain below their immediate resistance levels.

Brent ($ 69.61) tested a low of $ 68.74 yesterday and is currently hovering near its immediate support. While this holds, a bounce back towards $ 70-$ 71 looks likely for the near term.

WTI ($ 66.44) fell to a low of $ 65.59 yesterday. It is currently trading near its immediate support, and while this holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 68-$ 69.

Gold ($ 2,914.70) is failing to rise above $ 2,950. A sustained break above this is needed to move further up towards our earlier mentioned levels of $ 2,970-$ 3,000; otherwise, it can revert back to $ 2,900 on the downside.

Silver ($ 33.22) has immediate resistance near $ 33.5, which can hold and push the price down to $ 32.5-$ 32.0. Only a sustained break above $ 33.5 would confirm further bullishness towards $ 34-$ 35 levels.

Copper ($ 4.7930) as expected, has tested the immediate resistance at $ 4.85 and closed lower at $ 4.80 yesterday. As long as the resistance holds, a fall towards $ 4.7-$ 4.6 looks likely for the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 4.2640) the resistance at $ 4.6 has held well and pushed the price down to $ 4.30 yesterday. A further fall towards $ 4.1-$ 4.0 can take place in the near term.

13:30 19:00 US NFP
… Exp 178K … Expected 156K … Previous 143K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
… Exp – … Expected 4.0% … Previous 4.0%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.5

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 0.52

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 17.8 … Previous 76.0

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 AU Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected 5.9 … Previous 4.9 … Actual 5.6

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
… Exp 0.0% … Expected 0.1% … Previous 0.0% …Actual – 0.3%

13:15 18:45 ECB Mtg
… Exp – … Expected 2.65% … Previous 2.90%

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected -93.1 … Previous – 98.4