Dollar Index below 104 can be vulnerable to test 102 on the downside. Euro can rise towards 1.09 or even 1.10 if Dollar Index breaks below 104, else the EURUSD can witness a corrective fall in the near term. EURINR continues to rise within the resistance zone between 94-95 region. Bias remains bearish below 95. USDJPY below 148, can extend its fall further to 145. EURJPY can remain ranged within 162-156 region for now. AUDUSD is declining a bit within its range of 0.64-0.62. Pound if sustained above 1.29, can test 1.30 on the upside. USDNCY above 7.225, can attempt to rise back towards 7.28 in the near term. USDINR is currently trading higher on the NDF but whether it rallies further to 87.25-87.50 or falls below 86.83 will have to be seen.

Higher US Unemployment at 4.1% and lower US NFP at 151k (156k expected) led Dollar Index (103.744) to test 103.458 on Friday. While the Index trades below 104, it can be vulnerable to extend the fall towards 102 in the near term. Only a rise past 104 if seen can take it higher at 105 and delay the fall.

EURUSD (1.0841) rallied to the high of 1.0885 before declining a bit from there. Still, while it sustains above 108 the pair has scope to test 1.09 or even 1.10. Overall, downside can be limited to 1.06 for now.

EURINR (94.5246) is rising within the crucial resistance zone between 94-95. While below, preferred view is for the cross to fall towards 93 or slightly lower in the near term. Only a sustained rise past 95 if seen, can take it higher at 97.

EURJPY (159.954) has immediate resistance at 162, below which a broad range of 162-156 can persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (147.57) 148 is likely to fall towards the deeper support near 145 region. It will have to rise past 148 again to bring the range of 152-148 back into picture.

USDCNY (7.2540) limited the fall to the low of 7.2275. While the deeper support at 7.225 holds, it can attempt to rise back towards 7.28 and higher in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6308) is coming off within its range of 0.64-0.62 region. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further directional clarity, until then the range can persist for a while.

Pound (1.2912) looks stable above 1.29 for now and if sustained, can rise further to 1.30. Immediate support is coming around 1.2800-1.2750 region, above which the target of 1.30 is kept alive.

USDINR (87.12) on Friday bounced well from the support near 86.8725 region. Currently the pair on the NDF is trading higher and if it sustains above 86.80, a further rally towards 87.25-87.50 can be seen. Failure to sustain above 86.83 can drag further to 86.50 in the near term. We will have to wait and watch for now.

The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly. But key resistances are ahead which will have to be broken to move further higher. Else the chances are high for the yields to fall back again. The German yields sustain higher. The outlook is bullish, and the yields can rise further from here. The Indian 10Yr GoI remains lower. Failure to rise back from here can drag the yield lower.

The US 10Yr (4.28%) and 30Yr (4.59%) Treasury yields have inched up. A rise above 4,35% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) is needed to go up to 4.5% and 4.8% respectively. Else the yields can fall back to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.83%) and the 30Yr (3.11%) yields sustain higher. The outlook is bullish to see a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6881%) remains lower and stable. View remains the same. Failure to rise back above 6.7% can drag the yield down to 6.6%.

The Dow Jones has moved up from a low of 42175.62 and needs to hold the support of 42000-41700 to keep the range of 41700-45100 intact. DAX in the medium term looks bullish above 23500, while above 22000, in the near term, views remain indecisive; watch price action near 23000. Nifty has sustained above 23500 and closed flat on Friday. While above 22500, a rise towards 22800-23000 looks possible. Else, it could come down to 22000-21700. Nikkei has fallen below 37000. While it remains below 37000-37400, a fall towards 36000 is likely. Shanghai is holding below immediate resistance at 3380. As long as it sustains above 3350, the outlook remains bullish to see a rise past 3380 towards 3400-3450.

The Dow (42801.72, +0.52%) has risen back from 42175. Key support is at 42000-41700, which has to hold to keep the 41700-45100 range intact. A break below 41700 will indicate a double top and bring in the danger of seeing 40000 and even 38000 on the downside.

DAX (23008.94, -1.75%) touched 23475 and then came down sharply. The big picture is bullish to see 23500 and higher with strong support at 22000. But the near-term view is not very clear as to whether a rise will happen from here itself or after a short-lived correction to 22500-22000.

Nifty (22522.50, +0.03%) had come-off from the high of 22633. But still, it sustains above 22500. While above 22500, the bias is bullish to breach 22600 and rise to 22800-23000. A fall below 22500 will negate this rise and drag it to 22000 and

Nikkei (36996.20, +0.30%) is trading below 37000. While it remains below 37000-37400, a fall to 36000 looks possible.

Shanghai (3371.3966, -0.03%) is holding below immediate resistance around 3380; however, while above 3350, bias remains bullish to rise past 3380 and move higher to 3400-3450.

Crude prices can target $ 71-$ 72 (Brent) and $ 68-$ 70 (WTI) on the higher side while remaining above their respective support levels. Gold can rise towards $ 2,970-$ 3,000 while holding above $ 2,900. Silver and Copper can continue to decline towards $ 32.5-$ 32.0 and $ 4.6-$ 4.5, respectively. Natural Gas can break above $ 4.6 and rise towards $ 4.8-$ 5.0 in the near term.

Brent ($ 69.98) and WTI ($ 66.65) rebounded on Friday as anticipated. As long as the support levels hold, we maintain our view of a rise towards $ 71-$ 72 and $ 68-$ 70 in the near term.

Gold ($ 2,917.40) has been trading within a narrow range of $ 2,950-$ 2,900 for the past few sessions. Immediate support is near $ 2,900, and while it holds, gold can move above $ 2,950 and head towards $ 2,970-$ 3,000 in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 32.91) has faced resistance at $ 33.5, which has held and pushed the price down as expected. A further decline towards $ 32.5-$ 32.0 is likely.

Copper ($ 4.6920) has declined as anticipated. As long as it remains below $ 4.8, a further drop towards $ 4.6-$ 4.5 looks likely.

Natural Gas ($ 4.6240) closed lower near $ 4.39 on Friday but opened higher today, reaching a high of $ 4.9010 so far. A sustained break above $ 4.6 would confirm our earlier bullish outlook towards $ 5.0.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY
—————
13:30 19:00 US NFP
… Exp 178K … Expected 156K … Previous 125K … Actual 151K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
… Exp – … Expected 4.0% … Previous 4.0% … Actual 4.1%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.3

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 0.42 …Actual 0.3

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 17.8 … Previous 76.0 … Actual 1.1