Dollar Index below 104 can fall towards 103-102, while Euro can test 1.0950-1.1000 soon. EURINR has broken past 95 and if it fails to dip below 95 then the rise can get extended towards 97. USDJPY has risen a bit but while below 150, the targets of 145-144 are kept open. EURJPY can dip within 162-156 region. AUDUSD could test 0.62, the lower end of its range of 0.64-0.62 before moving higher. Pound if sustained, can test 1.30 soon. USDNCY can rise towards 7.28 while above 7.2250. USDINR looks uncertain at the moment. whether it breaks past 87.35 and heads toward 87.75-88.00 or falls below 87.05 to 86.50/30 is uncertain. Watch out for the IN & US CPI scheduled today.

Dollar Index (103.504) continues to trade below 104 and can be vulnerable to extend the fall towards 103-102 in the near term. US CPI Scheduled today might give better directional clarity.

EURUSD (1.0906) in line with our view of testing 1.0950 on the upside, a test to 1.0947 was seen before declining a bit from there. Immediate resistance is coming near 1.10 region. If the ongoing rise persists, the resistance can be tested pausing for correction within the current up move.

EURINR (95.1632) has risen past 95 to the high of 95.4709 and if sustained, can head towards the higher resistance at 97. Only if the cross immediately below 95, can bring it lower towards 94.

EURJPY (161.44) is hovering near the resistance around 162. While below it, the cross can fall back and a decisive break below 159 can bring in the downside targets of 158-156 into the picture. Only sustained rise past 162 if seen, can negate the anticipated fall and take it higher to 164.

Dollar-Yen (148.06) limited the fall to 146.54 and started rising back. Still while below 150, our downside targets of 145-144 are kept alive for now.

USDCNY (7.2233) is trading above support at 7.225 and can attempt to rise back towards 7.28 and higher in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6289) continues to trade within 0.64-0.62 region, which is likely to persist in the near term.

Pound (1.2933) bounced from the low of 1.2871 and can soon test our target of 1.30 on the upside. Thereafter, a confirmed rise past 1.30 will be needed to bring 1.35 into picture.

USDINR (87.2230) is holding well below the immediate resistance near 87.35, and while below this level, the decline may extend to 87.15-87.05 at most. Thereafter, whether it breaks past 87.35 and heads toward 87.75-88.00 or falls below 87.05 to 86.50/30 will have to be seen.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. But resistances are ahead which will have to be broken to move higher and negate the fall that we are expecting. The German yields continue to rise. The bullish view is intact, and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI is stuck in a narrow range. A breakout of this range will give clarity on the next move.

The US 10Yr (4.27%) and 30Yr (4.59%) Treasury yieldshave risen back sharply. 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) are key resistances which will have to be broken for the yields to gain momentum and rise to 4.45%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall back again and keep alive the chances of seeing 4.1%-4%(10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr) on the downside.
 
The German 10Yr (2.89%) and the 30Yr (3.18%) yields continue to move up and are keeping intact our bullish view.  The yields can rise to 3% (10Yr)and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6938%) is stuck between 6.675% and 6.7%. A breakout on either side of this range will decide whether the yield can go up to 6.75% or fall to 6.65%-6.63%.  

The Dow Jones extended the fall and confirmed a double-top pattern and could come down to 40000-39000. DAX is nearing 22000, and a break below 22000 would negate the rise to 23500 and come down to 21500. In Nifty, while below 23600, the danger of seeing a fall towards 22000 remains on the table, and it needs a rise past 23600 to mitigate the downside risk. Nikkei is heading toward immediate resistance of 37000-37300. Shanghai is attempting a rise past the resistance of 3380.

The Dow (41433.48, -1.14%) has declined further sharply and confirms the double-top. The downside is now open to see 40000-39000. Any bounce will be short-lived.

DAX (22328.77, -1.29%) is coming down towards 22000 as expected. A break below 22000 can drag it down to 21500 and will negate the rise to 23500. 

Nifty (22497.90, +0.17%) managed to stay stable amid the sell-off in the global markets.That still keeps some hope alive of rising above 22600 towards 22800-23000. But while below 22600, the danger of the fall to 22000 still cannot be ruled out considering the weakness in the global markets. So, need to be cautious. It’s better to stay out and watch. 

Nikkei (36989.78, +0.29%) is moving higher with our alternate view of seeing a rise towards 37000-37300.

Shanghai (3374.4476, -0.16%) the resistance of 3380 remains firm, and the index is attempting a rise past 3380. Only a rise past 3380 would open the door for a further rise to 3400-3450. It can come down to the support of 3350.

Crude prices need to sustain above their immediate support levels to avoid further bearishness. Gold and Silver have risen and could target $ 2,950-$ 2,970 and $ 33.50, respectively. Copper needs to break above $ 4.85 to turn bullish towards $ 5.00-$ 5.20. Natural Gas may extend its decline to $ 4.20 in the near term.

Brent ($ 70.02) and WTI ($ 66.74) are holding above their immediate support levels. A break below these levels could trigger a decline towards $ 67-$ 65 and $ 64-$ 62, respectively. However, as long as support holds, a rebound towards the previously mentioned levels of $ 71-$ 72 and $ 68-$ 70 remains possible.

Gold ($ 2,922.80) has risen as expected and could move further up towards $ 2,950-$ 2,970 in the coming sessions. A break below $ 2,900 could turn bearish, leading to a decline towards $ 2,850-$ 2,750, but this seems less likely for now.

Silver ($ 33.30) tested a low of $ 32.22 yesterday before bouncing back sharply to close at $ 33.15. While above $ 33, it could rise to $ 33.50 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.80) has surged from a low of $ 4.62, closing higher at $ 4.76 yesterday. It faces resistance near $ 4.85, which must be broken for a bullish move towards $ 5.00-$ 5.20. Otherwise, a break below $ 4.60 could lead to a decline towards $ 4.50. Our preferred view is a breakout above $ 4.85, leading to a rise towards $ 5.00-$ 5.20.

Natural Gas ($ 4.34) fell to $ 4.33 as expected and could extend its decline towards $ 4.20.

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
… Exp 3.2% … Expected 3.5% … Previous 3.2%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
… Exp 4.32 … Expected 4.00 … Previous 4.31

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.4 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.5

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.4%

13:45 19:15 BOC Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 2.8% … Previous 3.0%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
23:50 05:20 JP GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.7% … Previous 0.7% … Actual 0.6%