Dollar Index looks bearish towards 103-102, while below 104. The Euro has slipped below 1.09 but until it extends the fall further, the targets of 1.0950-1.1000 are kept alive. EURINR has dipped below 95 and can fall towards 94. Only a rise past 95 can take it towards 97. USDJPY has risen a bit but while below 152, a range of 146-15/52 can hold for a while. EURJPY can dip within 162-156 region. AUDUSD is rising higher within range of 0.62-0.64. Pound if sustained, can test 1.30 soon. USDNCY can rise towards 7.28 while above 7.2250. USDINR looks uncertain at the moment. whether it breaks past 87.35 and heads toward 87.75-88.00 or falls below 87.05 to 86.50/30 is uncertain. Watch out for the US PPI scheduled today.

Dollar Index (103.541) failed in its attempt to rise past 104 yesterday. While below 104, it can be vulnerable to extend the fall to 103-102 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.0892) has slipped below 1.09 but still a further fall below current levels will be needed to conclude that a top has been made at 1.0947. For now, the targets of 1.0950-1.1000 are kept alive. Overall, downside can be limited to 1.07-1.06.

EURINR (94.9664) failed to sustain its rise past 95 and started coming down. Further if the fall continues, can get extended to 94 or slightly lower. Only a sustained rise past 95 can take it towards the higher resistance at 97.

EURJPY (161.50) initially had surged past 162 to the high of 162.36 but could not sustain and started coming off. While below it, the cross can fall back and a decisive break below 159 can bring in the downside targets of 158-156 into the picture. Only a decisive break 162 can negate the anticipated fall and take it higher to 164.

Dollar-Yen (148.20) has upside capped at 151-152 max and while the resistance around 151-152 holds, a range of 146-150/52 can hold for a while.

USDCNY (7.2335) is trading above support at 7.225 and can attempt to rise back towards 7.28 and higher in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6322) is rising within its range of 0.62-0.64 region. Still a decisive break past 0.64 will be needed to rise further towards 0.65. Until then, the range is likely to persist in the near term.

Pound (1.2968) can soon test our target of 1.30 on the upside. Thereafter, a confirmed rise past 1.30 will be needed to bring 1.35 into picture. Immediate downside limited to 1.28 for now.

USDINR (87.1670) continues to trade below the immediate resistance near 87.35. Watch price action closely around current levels to see whether it breaks past 87.35 and heads toward 87.75-88.00 or falls below 87.05 to 86.50/30.

The US Treasury yields have risen further. But they have to break their upcoming resistance to move up further. Failure to breach the resistance can drag them lower and keep them under pressure. The German yields have dipped but are likely to be short-lived. The outlook is bullish, and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its narrow range. A downside break on this range can take it lower. We will have to wait and see.

The US 10Yr (4.31%) and 30Yr (4.63%) Treasury yields have risen further. They have to rise past 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) resistances to move up to 4.45%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall back and keep the bearish view intact to see 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr) on the downside.

The German 10Yr (2.87%) and the 30Yr (3.16%) yields have dipped slightly. Outlook remains bullish. The yields can rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6821%) is coming down within its narrow 6.675%- 6.7% range. A break below 6.675% can take it down to 6.65%-6.6%. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow Jones, after reaching a low of 41010, has recovered above 41350; however, the outlook remains bearish for the index to 40000-39000. DAX has risen back, and a follow-through rise would negate the downside of 22000. Nifty remained ranged between 22300 and 22700 and broke out on either side to get directional clarity. Nikkei slightly cooled down after rising to our target and resistance of 37300 by rising to a high of 37326. A rise past the resistance would pave the way towards 38000. Shanghai is holding the resistance of 3380 and is likely to witness an initial fall to 3350.

The Dow (41350.93, -0.20%) has come down further. Outlook is bearish to see 40000-39000 in the coming weeks. Resistance is now in the 42000-42100 region.

DAX (22676.41, +1.56%) has risen back. But it will have to get a strong follow-through rise above 23000 from here to negate the fall to 22000 and lower.

Nifty (22470.50, -0.12%) is stuck between 22300 and 22700. Need to wait for a breakout on either side of this range. A strong rise above 22700 is needed to go up to 23000 and higher. Else the danger of seeing 22000 and lower levels will remain alive. 

Nikkei (37137.77, +0.96%) Going ahead, if the index sustains above 37000, then it can rise past the immediate resistance to 38000 and higher. moved up from a low of 35987.

Shanghai (3373.2068, +0.03%) resistance of 3380 remains firm, and the index can fall to 3350 before eventually rising back and re-testing the resistance of 3380.

Crude prices have rebounded and can extend their rise further towards $ 72-$ 73 (Brent) and $ 69-$ 70 (WTI). Gold can target $ 2,970-$ 3,000 on the upside. Silver and Copper face crucial resistance near $ 34 and $ 4.85, respectively, which must be broken to confirm bullishness towards $ 35-$ 36 and $ 5.00-$ 5.20. Natural Gas has plunged, but as long as it holds above its immediate support, we expect a bounce towards $ 4.20-$ 4.40 in the coming sessions.

Brent ($ 70.94) and WTI ($ 67.64) have rebounded as expected and can move further up towards $ 72-$ 73 and $ 69-$ 70 in the near term.

Gold ($ 2,949.70) is moving up in line with our expectations and could target $ 2,970-$ 3,000 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 33.30) has risen in line with our expectations. It now faces resistance near $ 34, which needs to be broken to open higher levels of $ 35-$ 36. Otherwise, if this holds, it can revert to $ 33-$ 32 on the downside.

Copper ($ 4.8645) is attempting to break higher as it tested a high of $ 4.90 yesterday. A successive break above $ 4.85 would confirm bullishness towards $ 5.00-$ 5.20 for the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 4.0490) has fallen sharply to its immediate support at $ 4.02 as cold temperatures in the U.S. fade. While this support holds, the price can bounce back towards $ 4.20-$ 4.40. But if it breaks lower, it would confirm bearishness towards $ 3.60-$ 3.40 for the coming weeks.

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
… Exp – … Expected 0.6% … Previous -1.1%

12:30 18:00 US PPI
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.4%

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
… Exp 0.7 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.3

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
12:00 16:00 IN IIP
… Exp 3.2% … Expected 3.5% … Previous 3.5% …Actual 5.0%

12:00 16:00 IN CPI
… Exp 4.32 … Expected 4.00 … Previous 4.26 …Actual 3.61

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.40 … Expected 0.30 … Previous 0.47 … Actual 0.22

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.30% … Previous 0.45% … Actual 0.23%

13:45 19:15 BOC Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 2.8% … Previous 3.0%