Dollar Index below 104, can get dragged towards 103-102. The Euro needs to see a sustained rise past 1.09 to head towards 1.0950-1.1000. EURINR has dipped below 95 and can fall towards 94. Only a rise past 95 can take it towards 97. USDJPY can face rejection from anywhere between 149-151 region. EURJPY below 162 can be vulnerable to fall back towards 159 or even lower. AUDUSD is rising higher within range of 0.62-0.64. Pound if sustained above 1.29, can test 1.30 soon. USDNCY can rise towards 7.28 while above 7.2250. USDINR is trading below 87 on the NDF. Our outlook appears bullish on the USDINR but a confirmed rise past 87.35 will be needed for that. Watch out for the IN-Trade balance and US Retail Sales scheduled today.

Dollar Index (103.719) below 104, it can be vulnerable to extend the fall to 103-102 in the near term. Only a rise past 104 can take it higher towards 105, thereby delaying the fall. Overall, view remains bearish for now.

EURUSD (1.0882) on Friday initially tested the low of 1.0830 before rising back higher. A sustained rise past 1.09 will be needed to head towards 1.0950-1.1000. Immediate support is coming around 1.08, above which the pair can rise higher.

EURINR (94.6162) extended the fall to the low of 94.1602 before recovering a bit from there. Still, a rise past 95 will be needed to bring 97 back into picture. Else any break below 94 if seen, can drag it towards 93 or even 92 as well.

EURJPY (161.50) is unable to see a sustained rise past 162, which will be needed to head towards 164. Else, while the resistance holds, the cross can fall back and a decisive break below 159 can open the doors for 158-156.

Dollar-Yen (148.62) has multiple resistances coming between 149-151 region and while it holds, the pair can witness a fall back within its range of 150/52-146.

USDCNY (7.2356) tested 7.25 on the upside before coming down. Still, while the pair is trading above support at 7.225, it can attempt to rise back towards 7.28 and higher in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6331) can hold the immediate range of 0.62-0.64 for a while. A decisive break past 0.64 will be needed to rise further towards 0.65. Until then, the range is likely to persist in the near term.

Pound (1.2936) is coming off from the high of 1.2987 but still while it sustains above 1.29, target of 1.30 is kept alive. Thereafter, a confirmed rise past 1.30 will be needed to bring 1.35 into picture. Immediate downside limited to 1.28 for now.

USDINR (86.9060) was closed on Friday on the account of Holi. On the NDF it is currently trading below 87 so there could be some scope to see a lower opening in onshore markets as well. Our view is currently looking bullish towards 88 in the coming weeks but a confirmed break past 87.35 will be needed for that. On the downside if the pair slips below 86.90/80, then can get dragged to 86.50, which in turn can delay the targets on upside.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. But resistances are ahead which will have to be broken to rise further. Else the yields will remain vulnerable to fall back gain. The German yields sustain higher. Bullish view is intact. The yields can rise further from here. The 10Yr GoI remains stuck inside the narrow range. We will have to wait for this range breakout to get clarity on the next move.

The US 10Yr (4.30%) and 30Yr (4.61%) Treasury yields sustain higher. The resistances at 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) has to be broken to move up to 4.45%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall back towards 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.87%) and the 30Yr (3.20%) sustain higher. The bullish view is intact to see a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6967%) remains within its 6.675%- 6.7% range. We will have to wait for a breakout of this range. That will decide whether the yield can go up to 6.7250%-6.76% or fall to 6.65%-6.6%.

Dow Jones, after reaching a low of 41010, has recovered above 41350; however, the outlook remains bearish for the index to 40000-39000. DAX has risen back, and a follow-through rise would negate the downside of 22000. Nifty remained ranged between 22300 and 22700 and broke out on either side to get directional clarity. Nikkei slightly cooled down after rising to our target and resistance of 37300 by rising to a high of 37326. A rise past the resistance would pave the way towards 38000. Shanghai is holding the resistance of 3380 and is likely to witness an initial fall to 3350.

The Dow (41350.93, -0.20%) has come down further. Outlook is bearish to see 40000-39000 in the coming weeks. Resistance is now in the 42000-42100 region.

DAX (22676.41, +1.56%) has risen back. But it will have to get a strong follow-through rise above 23000 from here to negate the fall to 22000 and lower.

Nifty (22470.50, -0.12%) is stuck between 22300 and 22700. Need to wait for a breakout on either side of this range. A strong rise above 22700 is needed to go up to 23000 and higher. Else the danger of seeing 22000 and lower levels will remain alive. 

Nikkei (37137.77, +0.96%) Going ahead, if the index sustains above 37000, then it can rise past the immediate resistance to 38000 and higher. moved up from a low of 35987.

Shanghai (3373.2068, +0.03%) resistance of 3380 remains firm, and the index can fall to 3350 before eventually rising back and re-testing the resistance of 3380.

Crude prices need to break above their immediate resistance levels to move further higher in the coming weeks. Gold and silver face near-term resistance and could fall back to $ 2,950-$ 2,900 and $ 34.0-$ 33.5, respectively, in the near term. Copper needs to sustain above $ 4.90 to confirm further bullishness towards $ 5.20-$ 5.40. Natural gas can rise towards $ 4.20-$ 4.30 while holding above its immediate support.

Brent ($ 71.18) and WTI ($ 67.92) need to break above their near-term resistance to move higher towards $ 74-$ 76 and $ 70-$ 72 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, they could fall back to their respective support levels of $ 68 and $ 65 in the near term.

Gold ($ 2,995.90) has risen sharply to $ 3,000 as expected. Now, we need to see whether it moves further higher to $ 3,050 before falling back to $ 2,950-$ 2,900, or if it has a corrective dip to $ 2,950-$ 2,900 first and then rallies higher towards $ 3,050-$ 3,100.

Silver ($ 34.32) has broken above $ 33.5 as anticipated and tested a high of $ 34.86 on Friday. Trend resistance is near $ 35, which must be broken for further upside towards $ 36-$ 37. Otherwise, a corrective dip towards $ 34.0-$ 33.5 could be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.8875) tested a high of $ 4.9575 but fell back to close at $ 4.8710 on Friday. It needs to sustain above $ 4.90 to remain bullish towards $ 5.20-$ 5.40, else it is vulnerable to a decline towards $ 4.70-$ 4.50.

Natural Gas ($ 4.1460) has held above its immediate support as expected. A further rise towards $ 4.20-$ 4.30 could take place in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break below $ 4.10/$ 4.00 could drag prices lower towards $ 3.80-$ 3.60, but this looks less likely for now.

2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
… Exp – … Expected 5.3 … Previous 6.2

2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
… Exp – … Expected 3.8 … Previous 3.7

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
… Exp 2.34% … Expected 2.36% …Previous 2.38%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
… Exp – …Expected – … Previous -22.99

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
… Exp -0.9% …Expected 0.6% … Previous -1.2%

DATA FRIDAY
—————
6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
… Exp -16.4 …Expected – … Previous -17.4