Dollar Index is coming off as expected and can extend the fall towards 103-102 before bouncing back higher. The Euro needs to sustain its rise past 1.09 to head towards 1.0950-1.1000. Only a rise past 95 in EURINR can take it towards 97. USDJPY can face rejection from anywhere between 149-151 region. EURJPY has moved past 162 and can head towards 164 soon. AUDUSD is rising higher within range of 0.62-0.64. Pound can test 1.30 soon. USDNCY looks ranged within broad region of 7.26-7.22. USDINR if falls below 86.75, can test 86.50 on the downside. Immediate resistance at 87. The US Housing Starts, US Industrial Production & US Capacity Utilization are the data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (103.523) observed the low of 103.30 yesterday. The index is coming off as expected and below 104, it can be vulnerable to extend the fall to 103-102 in the near term before eventually bouncing back higher. Only a rise past 104 can take it higher towards 105, thereby delaying the fall.

EURUSD (1.0910) has risen past 1.09 again and if sustained, can head towards 1.0950-1.1000 before getting peaked out. Immediate support is coming around 1.08, above which the pair can rise higher.

EURINR (94.5945) failed in its attempt to rise past 95 and started coming off from the high of 94.934. A rise past 95 will be needed to bring 97 back into picture. Else any break below 94 if seen, can drag it towards 93 or even 92 as well.

EURJPY (163.13) in line with the lesser preferred view, has risen past 162 and now while the rise persists, can get extended towards 164. Thereafter, a confirmed break past 164 will be needed to bring 166 into picture. Immediate support is around 162 region.

Dollar-Yen (149.51) is gradually rising higher but could face rejection from anywhere between 149-151 region. Thereafter, the pair can witness a fall back within its range of 150/52-146.

USDCNY (7.2339) has been oscillating within broad region of 7.26-7.22. While the pair is trading above support at 7.225, bias remains positive for a rise towards the upper end of its range. Only a decisive break below 7.225 if seen, can lead to revise our view.

Aussie (0.6379) is trading near the upper end of its range of 0.62-0.64. A decisive break past 0.64 will be needed to rise further towards 0.65. Until then, the range is likely to persist in the near term.

Pound (1.2974) is nearing the target of 1.30 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, a confirmed rise past 1.30 can bring 1.35 into picture. Immediate downside limited to 1.28 for now.

USDINR (86.6670) as anticipated opened lower at 86.965 yesterday and extended the fall to 86.755. On the NDF it is currently trading near 86.65 region. A confirmed break below 86.75 if seen in onshore markets, can drag it further to 86.50 in the near term. Immediate resistance is coming at 87, below which the fall can get extended further.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The yields have to breach their immediate resistance in order to go up and avoid falling from here. We will have to wait and see. The US Fed meeting outcome is due tomorrow. It will be important to see if there is any change in their economic forecast. The German yields have come down. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI is still stuck in its narrow range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next direction of move.

The US 10Yr (4.29%) and 30Yr (4.59%) Treasury yields have dipped. We repeat that a break above 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) is needed to get a rise to 4.45%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall back to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.82%) and the 30Yr (3.11%) have come down sharply. But supports are at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) while above which the bullish view will remain intact to see a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6896%) continues to remain stuck in the 6.675%- 6.7% narrow range. The range breakout will decide whether the yield can go up to 6.7250%-6.76% or fall to 6.65%-6.6%.

The Dow Jones has risen above 41800 and is likely to extend the corrective rise to 42000-42100 before resuming a fall towards 40000-39000. DAX sustained above 23000 and looks bullish towards 24000. Nifty, within the range of 22300-22700, is heading towards testing the upper end of the sideways range to 22700. Nikkei has risen well and is trading slightly below 38000. A rise past 38000 would open the door towards 39000-40000. Shanghai remains stable and is heading towards testing the resistance of 3450.

The Dow (41841.63, +0.85%) continues to move up and has chances to test 42000-42100 in the short term. Thereafter the downtrend can resume targeting 40000-39000.

DAX (23154.57, +0.73%) has moved up further. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 24000 and higher levels going forward. Support is at 22300.

Nifty (22508.75, +0.50%) has risen within its 22300-22700 range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to see if the Nifty can rise to 23000 or fall to 22000. We prefer continuing to stay out of the market.

Nikkei (37943.18, +1.16%) rose to our view of seeing a rise to 38000. Going ahead, a rise past 38000 would take the index higher to 39000-40000.

Shanghai (3430.4937, +0.13%) remains stable below the resistance of 3450 and is expected to test the resistance of 3450. A good support at 3400-3380 can be seen.

Crude prices remain below their immediate resistance, which needs to be broken to see higher levels. Gold and silver face near-term resistance, which could push prices back to $ 2,950-$ 2,900 and $ 34.0-$ 33.5, respectively, on the downside. Copper has risen above $ 4.90 and may continue to move higher towards $ 5.20-$ 5.40. Natural gas has fallen below its immediate support and must sustain below this level to remain bearish towards $ 3.80-$ 3.60, otherwise, it could bounce back to $ 4.20-$ 4.40.

Brent ($ 71.02) and WTI ($ 67.53) are holding below their immediate resistance, which must be broken to see a rise towards $ 74-$ 76 and $ 70-$ 72 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, a decline towards $ 68 and $ 65 in the near term cannot be ruled out.

Gold ($ 3,009.90) has risen above $ 3,000 in line with our expectations, but it must sustain above this level to move further higher towards $ 3,050. Otherwise, it remains vulnerable to a decline towards $ 2,950-$ 2,900.

Silver ($ 34.43) is holding below its immediate resistance near $ 35, which must be broken for a rise towards $ 36-$ 38. Otherwise, it could fall back to $ 34.0-$ 33.5. A rounding pattern is visible on the near-term charts, suggesting a potential breakout on the upside and a rise towards $ 36-$ 38, but confirmation is needed with a break above $ 35.

Copper ($ 4.9750) has risen above $ 4.90 as anticipated, and while holding above this level, it can continue its bullish momentum towards $ 5.20-$ 5.40.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9960) has broken below $ 4.00, but it remains to be seen whether it can sustain below this level for a further decline towards $ 3.80-$ 3.60. Alternatively, if it bounces back above $ 4.00, our earlier bullish view of $ 4.20-$ 4.40 would remain intact.

10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
… Exp – … Expected14.1 … Previous 16.6

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
… Exp 1426K … Expected 1380K … Previous 1366K

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
… Exp – … Expected 2.2% … Previous 1.9%

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.5%

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
… Exp 77.8% … Expected 77.8% … Previous 77.8%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
… Exp – … Expected 5.3 … Previous 6.2 …Actual 5.9

2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
… Exp – … Expected 3.8 … Previous 3.7 …Actual 4.0

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
… Exp 2.34% … Expected 2.36% …Previous 2.31% …Actual 2.38%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
… Exp – …Expected – … Previous -22.99 …Actual -14.05

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
… Exp -0.9% …Expected 0.6% … Previous -1.4% …Actual 0.5