Dollar Index can extend the fall towards 103-102 before bouncing back higher. The Euro needs above 1.09 can head towards 1.10/11. Only a sustained rise past 95 in EURINR can take it towards 97, else it can be vulnerable to fall towards 93 or lower. USDJPY can face rejection from anywhere between 150-151 region. EURJPY tested 164 and now a sustained rise past it will be needed to head towards 166-167. AUDUSD is rising higher within range of 0.62-0.64. Pound tested 1.30 and now a confirmed rise past it can bring 1.35 into picture. USDNCY is trading lower within broad region of 7.26-7.22. USDINR slipped to the low of 86.53 yesterday. Watch price action closely around current levels to see whether it holds above 86.50 or breaks below it. Watch out for the US FOMC scheduled today.

Dollar Index (103.263) has been gradually coming off and the targets of 103-102 can be tested in the near term before eventually bouncing back higher. The FOMC is scheduled today. While the markets expect interest rates to remain steady, the press release would be important to watch for directional clarity.

EURUSD (1.0944) tested our initial target of 1.0950 before declining a bit from there. While above 1.09, the rise can get extended to 1.10/11 before getting peaked out. Immediate support is coming around 1.0850, above which the pair can rise higher.

EURINR (94.8033) is unable to see a sustained rise past 95, which will be needed to test the higher resistance near 97 region. Any break below 94 if seen, can drag it towards 93 or even 92 as well.

EURJPY (163.50) tested the mentioned target of 164 yesterday. Now, the cross will have to see a sustained rise above 164 to head towards 166-167 in the near term. The 163-162 region can now act as a good resistance turned support.

Dollar-Yen (149.43) is rising higher but while the resistance near 150-151 region holds, the pair is likely to witness a fall back within its range of 150/51-146.

USDCNY (7.2310) is trading lower within its broad range of 7.26-7.22. While the pair holds above support at 7.225, bias remains positive for a rise towards the upper end of its range. Only a decisive break below 7.225-7.220 if seen, can lead to revise our view.

Aussie (0.6364) is trading near the upper end of its range of 0.62-0.64. A decisive break past 0.64 will be needed to rise further towards 0.65. Until then, the range is likely to persist in the near term.

Pound (1.2998) tested 1.30 as anticipated. Now, a confirmed rise past 1.30 will be needed to bring 1.35 into picture. Immediate downside limited to 1.28 for now.

USDINR (86.5970) as cautioned slipped below 86.75 and tested 86.53 on the downside. Note that 86.50 is a crucial level. If a break below 86.50 is seen, then a decline towards 86.25-86.00 looks possible. Only if the pair bounces back higher, can negate the anticipated fall.

The US Treasury yields remain stable ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting outcome tonight. While they remain below their immediate resistances, the chances are high to see a fall going forward. The Fed is likely to keep the rates unchanged. But their economic forecast and the dot plot showing their future rate hike path is going to be important. Any change in that will cause volatility in the market. We will have to wait and see. The German yields remain stable. Outlook remains bullish, and the yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has declined below its support. That has turned the outlook bearish. The yield can fall in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.29%) and 30Yr (4.59%) Treasury yields remain stable. While below the yields can fall to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr). A break above 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) has to happen to see a rise to 4.45%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.81%) and the 30Yr (3.12%) remains lower but stable. The outlook is bullish. Support at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) can limit the downside. The upside is open to test 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6714%) has declined below 6.675%. While this sustains, the outlook will be bearish to see a fall to 6.65%-6.6%.

The Dow Jones has fallen, keeping our bearish view to 40000-39000 intact. DAX has risen above 23300and looks bullish towards 23800-24000. NIfty has risen abve 22800 and test of 23000-23100 looks possible. Nikkei moved higher to 38000 and follow through rise would take the index higher to 39000-40000. Shanghai remains stable near 3430, with the support near 3400-3380, a rise towards 3450 looks possible.

The Dow (41581.31, -0.62%) has come down again. That keeps intact our bearish view of seeing a fall to 40000-39000. Any rise will be capped at 42000-42100.

DAX (23380.70, +0.98%) continues to move up. The rise to 23800-24000 is happening in line with our expectation.

Nifty (22834.30, +1.45%) has risen above 22700. A test of 23000-23100 is possible now. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if the upside is extending to 23500 or the Nifty is falling back to 22500-22000.

Nikkei (38107.22, +0.69%) has risen above 38000. While it sustains above 38000 a rise towards 39000-40000 remains on the table.

Shanghai (3427.9523, -0.05%) remains stable near 3430. While the immediate support near 3400-3380, a rise towards the resistance of 3450 is likely.

Crude prices have fallen as anticipated and may test their immediate support levels. Gold and Silver remain vulnerable for a fall while trading below their immediate resistance levels. Copper and natural gas can rise towards $ 5.15-$ 5.25 and $ 4.20-$ 4.40, respectively, in the near term.

Brent ($ 70.39) and WTI ($ 66.58) have declined as expected and may test their respective support levels of $ 65 and $ 68 in the near term. If these support levels hold, a rebound could be seen in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 3,041.70) has risen and is facing resistance near $ 3,050, which must be broken to confirm further bullishness towards $ 3,100-$ 3,200 for the medium term. Otherwise, if the resistance holds, a decline towards $ 3,000-$ 2,950-$ 2,900 could be seen.

Silver ($ 34.65) has risen but remains below its immediate resistance, which must be broken to see a rise towards $ 36-$ 38. Otherwise, it may decline back to $ 34.0-$ 33.5 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.00) has risen above $ 5.00 and may continue higher towards $ 5.15-$ 5.25 in the coming weeks. A crucial long-term resistance is seen near $ 5.25, which must be broken to open the door for higher levels of $ 5.40-$ 5.60.

Natural Gas ($ 4.0610) has rebounded above $ 4.00 as anticipated. A sustained break below this level is required to confirm bearishness towards $ 3.80-$ 3.60. Otherwise, it may rise further towards $ 4.20-$ 4.40.

3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 0.50% … Previous 0.50%

10:00 15:30 EU Final CPI (YoY)
… Exp 1.9% … Expected 2.4% … Previous 2.4%

18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
… Exp – … Expected <4.50% ... Previous <4.50% 13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
… Exp – … Expected 101.1 … Previous 72.0

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
… Exp – … Expected 14.0 … Previous 14.2 …Actual 14.0

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
… Exp 1426K … Expected 1380K … Previous 1350K …Actual 1501K

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
… Exp – … Expected 2.2% … Previous 1.9% …Actual 2.6%

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.8%

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
… Exp 77.8% … Expected 77.8% … Previous 77.7% …Actual 78.2%