The FED kept the interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. The lower targets of 103-102 are kept open in Dollar Index, while it trades below 104. The Euro needs to rise above 1.0950 to head towards 1.10/11. EURINR has risen well from the low of 93.80 but still a rise past 95 is needed to take it higher at 97, else it can be vulnerable to fall towards 93 or lower. USDJPY has been coming off as anticipated and the range of 151-146 can hold for now. EURJPY has slipped below 162 and if the fall continues further, can get extended to 160 as well. AUDUSD can trade within range of 0.64-0.62. Pound tested 1.30 and now a confirmed rise past it can bring 1.35 into picture. USDNCY is trading lower within broad region of 7.26-7.22. USDINR has slipped below 86.50 and on the NDF it is currently trading near 86.35. While below 86.50, fall can extend towards 86.25-86.00. Watch out for the US Philifed Index, US Current Account & US Existing Home Sales scheduled today.

Dollar Index (103.335) initially rose to the high of 103.91 but later faded the gains after the FOMC meeting. The FED kept the rates unchanged at 4.50%. While the index trades below 104, a fall to 103-102 can happen before eventually bouncing back higher.

EURUSD (1.0916) had slipped below 1.09 to the low of 1.0860 before rising back. A confirmed rise past 1.0950 can take it higher towards the targets of 1.10/11.

EURINR (94.2675) witnessed a sharp fall to the level of 93.80 yesterday. Currently it has recovered well but still a rise past 95 will be needed to test the higher resistance near 97 region. Else, a decisive break below 94 if seen, can drag it towards 93 or even 92 as well.

EURJPY (161.78) contrary to our view of rising 166-167, the cross has broken below 162. Further if the fall continues, can mark the rise to 164 as a false break and can get extended towards 160 or lower in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (148.26) is holding the resistance near 151 quite well as a test to 150.14 was seen before it started coming down. Overall, the range of 150/51-146 is likely to hold for now.

USDCNY (7.2331) continues to trade lower within its broad range of 7.26-7.22. While the pair holds above support at 7.225, bias remains positive for a rise towards the upper end of its range. Only a decisive break below 7.225-7.220 if seen, can lead to revise our view.

Aussie (0.6338) can hold the range of 0.64-0.62 until a decisive break is seen on the either side of it.

Pound (1.2998) has tested 1.30 but a further rise past current levels can take it higher at 1.35. Immediate downside can be limited to 1.29-1.28.

USDINR (86.3520) broke the crucial support at 86.50 and tested the low of 86.4175. On the offshore it is currently trading near 86.35 region and while the pair remains below 86.50, a fall towards 86.25-86.00 looks possible.

The US Treasury yields have come down further. The resistances have held very well, and the fall is happening now. View remains bearish. The US Federal Reserve meeting has largely turned out to be a non-event. The Fed kept the rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. However, it has revised the growth forecast down to 1.7% from 2.1% for 2025. The inflation is also revised higher to 2.7% from 2.5%. The German yields have dipped slightly. Supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. We expect the German yields to resume its uptrend going forward. The 10Yr GoI continues to fall. The bearish outlook is intact. The yields can fall more from here.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and 30Yr (4.55%) Treasury yields have come down further. The fall to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr) seems to be happening now. The resistance at 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) has held very well.

The German 10Yr (2.80%) and the 30Yr (3.09%) yields have dipped. The broader trend is up. 2.7% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) can limit the downside. The view of seeing a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr) remains intact.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6601%) fell to 6.6462% and then bounced back. View remains bearish to see 6.6% on the downside.

The Dow Jones has risen well but closed below 42000. As long as the index stays below 42000-42200, the outlook remains bearish towards seeing a fall to 40000-39000. DAX needs a rise past 23500 to clear the way for a rise towards 23800-24000. Nifty is heading towards testing the resistance. Nikkei has fallen below 38000, while below this level it can come down to 37000. Shanghai is heading towards testing the support of 3400-3380.

The Dow (41964.63, +0.92%) touched a high of 42178 and has come-off from there. The 42000-42100 resistance is holding well for now as expected. A fall from here will keep the bearish view intact and drag the Dow down to 40000-39000.

DAX (23288.06, -0.40%) has dipped slightly. A decisive break above 23500 will clear the way for seeing 23800-24000 on the upside. Else the DAX can fall below 23000 again. In that case, the 22200-23500 range will remain intact.

Nifty (22907.60, +0.32%) is heading towards the 23000-23100 resistance. Need to see if it manages to breach 23100 and extend the rise to 23500 or will fall back to 22500 again.

Nikkei (37751.88, -0.25%) unable to sustain higher has dropped down below 38000. While below 38000, it can witness a fall towards 37000 or lower.

Shanghai (3413.6981, -0.38%) is likely to test the support of 3400-3380 before eventually rising higher to 3450.

Crude prices can continue to trade within a narrow range until a breakout on either side takes place. Gold, Silver and Copper faces near term resistance; a break above could push them higher, while failure may lead to a decline. Natural gas has rebounded as anticipated and may rise further to $ 4.40 while holding above $ 4.00.

Brent ($ 71.07) and WTI ($ 67.20) have bounced back slightly from their immediate support levels. A narrow range of $ 69-$ 65 and $ 72-$ 68, respectively, may hold in the near term until a breakout occurs on either side.

Gold ($ 3,057.20) is hovering near its crucial resistance level. A sustained break above this level would confirm further bullishness and target $ 3,100-$ 3,200 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, if the resistance holds, a corrective dip to $ 3,000-$ 2,950 could be seen.

Silver ($ 34.42) is holding just below its immediate resistance level. As long as this level holds, a decline towards $ 34.0-$ 33.5 could take place in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break above $ 34.5/$ 35.0 would confirm bullishness and push prices higher towards $ 36-$ 38 in the coming months.

Copper ($ 5.1230) surged to a high of $ 5.1245 as anticipated. Immediate resistance is near current levels, which must be broken to continue its bullish momentum towards $ 5.20-$ 5.30.

Natural Gas ($ 4.2010) has rebounded sharply to test $ 4.2590 yesterday. While holding above $ 4.00, a further rise towards $ 4.40 looks likely in the near term.

0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 31.4K … Previous 44.0K

6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
… Exp 4.4% … Expected 4.4% … Previous 4.4%

7:30 13:00 SNB Mtg
… Exp – … Expected 0.25% … Previous 0.50%

11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
… Exp – … Expected 4.50% … Previous 4.50%

11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
… Exp – … Expected 0-2-7 … Previous 0-9-0

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
… Exp 16.8 … Expected 9.4 … Previous 18.1

12:30 18:00 US Current Account Balance
… Exp – … Expected -331.0 … Previous -310.9

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
… Exp 4215K … Expected 3940K … Previous 4080K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 0.50% … Previous 0.50% …Actual 0.50%

10:00 15:30 EU Final CPI (YoY)
… Exp 2.4% … Expected 2.4% … Previous 2.5% …Actual 2.3%

18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
… Exp – … Expected <4.50% ... Previous <4.50% 13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
… Exp – … Expected 101.1 … Previous 72.0