The Dollar Index has risen past 104 again but can have upside limited to 105.0-105.50. The lower targets of 103-102 are kept open in Dollar Index until further clarity. The Euro is trading lower within its range of 1.095-1.080. A strong break below 1.08 will be needed to confirm that it has peaked out at 1.095. EURINR has immediate support near 92.50, above which it can rise back higher. USDJPY, USDCNY, AUDUSD & Pound can trade within respective ranges of 148-150, 7.22-7.26, 0.64-0.62 and 1.30-1.29 in the near term. EURJPY is rising as anticipated and above 160, can attempt to rise back towards 164. USDINR slipped below 86 and if the fall continues, can get extended to the low 85.70 before eventually rising back.

Dollar Index (104.081) has risen past 104 again. Even if the rise continues further, the immediate upside could be limited to the resistance coming around 105.0-105.5 region. The targets of 103-102 are kept open until further clarity.

EURUSD (1.0831) is trading lower within its near-term range of 1.095-1.080. The pair will have to decisively break below 1.08 to assume that it peaked at 1.0954. Else, the range can hold for now.

EURINR (93.1148) has been coming off since the last few sessions but an immediate support is coming near 92.5 region. While it holds, the cross can bounce back higher. Only a break below 92.5 if seen, can be bearish for the cross.

EURJPY (162.19) limited the fall to 160.736 on Friday and has currently recovered well from there. While the cross holds above 160, it can attempt to rise back towards 164.

Dollar-Yen (149.79) has immediate resistance at 150, below which a narrow range of 150-148 and broad range of 150-146 can hold for now.

USDCNY (7.2582) is trading near the upper end of its broad range of 7.22-7.26. A strong break past 7.26/27 will be needed for the pair to turn further bullish towards 7.30 and higher. Until then, the range can persist for now.

Aussie (0.6282) and Pound (1.2925) can hold the range of 0.64-0.62 and 1.30-1.29 respectively until a decisive break is seen on the either side of it. A near term support in Pound is coming around 1.2850.

USDINR (85.9470) was anticipated to test 86 on the downside. In actual, the fall exceeded further to the low of 85.92 so far. A near term support is coming around 85.70 region, which can be tested if the fall extends further before eventually bouncing back higher.

The US Treasury yields have risen slightly. The yields are stuck in a range for a few weeks now. The bias is negative to see a downside break of this range and fall going forward. The German yields remain lower but stable. There is limited room on the downside. The broader view remains bearish, and the yields are likely to resume the uptrend after some more fall from here. The 10Yr GoI is coming close to our target. We may have to look for a rise after testing the support.

The US 10Yr (4.27%) and 30Yr (4.61%) Treasury yields have risen slightly. The yields are stuck between 4.1%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.4%- 4.65% (30Yr). The bias is negative. We expect the yields to break the range on the downside and fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) initially and lower eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.76%) and the 30Yr (3.10%) yields remain lower and stable. We repeat that the support at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) can limit the downside. The broader trend is up. We retain the bullish view of seeing a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6249%) has declined further. The fall to 6.6% is happening as expected. As mentioned earlier, a rise back to 6.7%-6.75% is possible after this fall.

The Dow Jones remains higher and traded near 42000. The outlook remains bearish at 40000-39000. In case a rise past 42200 would lead to an extended rise to 43000. DAX is falling towards 22200. Nifty has resistance overhead near 23500-23700. Rise past would confirm the end of corrections. Nikkei remains stable and flatish below 38000, and while below 38000, it looks bearish towards 37000. Shanghai tested the support of 3350 by falling to 3355 and has risen from there. While above the support of 3350, a rise towards 3400-3450 can be expected.

The Dow (41985.35, +0.08%) stays higher and oscillates around 42000. The broader bearish view of seeing 40000-39000 remains intact. In case a strong break above 42200 happens, an extended rise to 43000 can be seen before the fall resumes.

DAX (22891.68, -0.47%) is coming down within its 22200-23500 range. It can test the lower end of the range in the coming days.

Nifty (23350.40, +0.69%) is heading up towards 23500. The region between 23500 and 23700 is a crucial resistance. A strong close above 23700 this will confirm the end of the correction. The price action this week is crucial.

Nikkei (37676.92, +0.0%) While below 38000, the view remains bearish towards 37000.

Shanghai (3368.6648, +0.13%) has risen from a support of 3350. Within 3350-3450, the index is expected to rise towards 3400-3450.

Brent and WTI remain range-bound, awaiting a breakout. Gold is gradually declining towards $ 3,000-$ 2,950 unless it breaks above $ 3,050. Silver may drop to $ 33.00-$ 32.50 before rebounding. Copper needs to sustain above $ 5.12 to stay bullish; otherwise, it risks falling to $ 5.00-$ 4.90. Natural gas remains weak below $ 4.00, with further downside possible in the near term.

Brent ($ 71.83) and WTI ($ 68.00) have declined, staying within their previously mentioned ranges of $ 72-$ 68 and $ 69-$ 65. They may continue trading within this range until a breakout occurs on either side.

Gold ($ 3,025.50) is gradually declining and could target $ 3,000-$ 2,950 while remaining below its immediate resistance. A sustained break above $ 3,050 would confirm further bullishness towards $ 3,100-$ 3,200, though this seems less likely for now.

Silver ($ 33.63) tested a low of $ 33.17 on Friday before opening higher today. A decline to $ 33.00-$ 32.50 is still possible in the near term before a rebound towards $ 34.00-$ 34.50 takes place .

Copper ($ 5.1245) tested a low of $ 5.02 on Friday before closing higher at $ 5.1135. A sustained break above $ 5.12 is needed to continue its bullish momentum towards $ 5.20-$ 5.25 in the coming weeks; otherwise, it remains vulnerable for a decline towards $ 5.00-$ 4.90.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9260) remains vulnerable for a fall towards $ 3.70-$ 3.60 while holding below $ 4.00. Only a sustained break above $ 4.00 can revive the earlier bullish outlook towards $ 4.40.

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
… Exp 85.5 … Expected – … Previous 85.2

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
… Exp 84.9 … Expected – … Previous 85.0

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
… Exp 86.8 … Expected – … Previous 85.4

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 4.5%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 96.3 … Expected – … Previous 98.3

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
… Exp 660K … Expected – … Previous 657K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
23:01 04:31 UK Cons Conf
… Exp -19 … Expected -21 … Previous -20 …Actual -19

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
… Exp 4.3 … Expected 2.9 … Previous 4.0 …Actual 3.6