The Dollar Index needs to sustain above 104, to rise to the resistance near 105.00-105.25. The Euro has fallen below 1.08 and if the fall continues, can get drag towards 1.705-1.070. EURINR if fails to see immediate bounce from current levels, can be vulnerable to fall towards 92 or lower. USDJPY and EURJPY above 150 and 162 has a scope to see a rise towards 152 and 164 respectively. The USDCNY needs to see a strong break past 7.27 to rise towards 7.30, else the range of 7.22-7.26 can continue to hold. AUDUSD & Pound can trade within respective ranges of 0.62-0.64 and 1.29-1.30 in the near term. USDINR is holding well above 85.50 so far and while above it, the rise can get extended towards 86 and higher. US Durable Goods Orders data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (104.306) initially tested 103.94 on weaker Consumer Confidence data release at 92.9 (94.2). The Index will have to sustain above 104 to head towards the resistance near 105.00-105.25 region. Thereafter, whether the rise halts or extends further will have to be seen.

EURUSD (1.0790) has slipped below 1.08 and if the fall continues, can test the lower levels of 1.075-1.070. An MA resistance is coming near 1.085, suggesting limited upside for the pair.

EURINR (92.4505) tested 92.8605 but later faded the gains and is currently trading near the support around current levels. Failure to see an immediate bounce back can make it vulnerable to fall towards 92 or even lower.

EURJPY (162.06) observed the high of 163.03 before coming down. Still, while it holds above 162, target of 164 is kept open. Only a decisive break below 162 if seen, can drag it further to 161-160.

Dollar-Yen (150.14) is currently trading near the level of 150. While above it, there could be a scope for the pair to rise towards 152. Only a break below 150 can bring the previous range of 150-148 back into picture. Wait and Watch.

USDCNY (7.2624) needs a strong break past 7.26/27 to turn further bullish towards 7.30 and higher. Else, it can fall back within its range of 7.22-7.26.

Aussie (0.6302) and Pound (1.2941) needs to see a decisive break on the either side of the respective ranges of 0.62-0.64 and 1.29-1.30 for further directional clarity.

USDINR (85.6470) held above 85.50 quite well and even bounced to the high of 85.83 as anticipated. While above 85.50, pair can rise back towards 86 and higher. Only if the spot happens to break below 85.50, it can lead to us revising our view accordingly.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher but are stable. The view remains bearish to see a fall back. But whether this is going to happen from here itself or after some more rise from current levels is not clear. The German yields are inching back up. Outlook is bullish to see a rise going forward. Supports can limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI has limited room on the downside from here. We can expect the yield to rise eventually going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.33%) and 30Yr (4.66%) Treasury yields remain higher but stable. A sustained break above 4.35% is needed to take the 10Yr up to 4.45%. The 30Yr has to sustain above 4.65% to move up 4.75%-4.8%. Else they can fall back to 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) from here itself.

The German 10Yr (2.73%) and the 30Yr (3.13%) yields are inching back up. The broader bullish view is intact to see a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr). Support at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) can limit the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6370%) seems to inch up. There is limited room on the downside to test the support at 6.6%. We expect the yield to rise back towards 6.7%-6.75% while it sustains above this support.

The Dow Jones looks bullish to 43300-43500. DAX is holding the range of 222000-23500. Nifty’s failure to sustain above 23800 can pull the index down to 23500-23300. Nikkei lacks the strength to sustain above 38000 and is expected to exhibit a fall towards 37000. Shanghai needs a rise past 3380 to extend the rise to 3400-3450. A support near 3350 can be seen.

The Dow (42587.50, +0.01%) remained higher and stable. While above 42000, a rise to 43300-43500 and higher is possible. That will negate our earlier bearish view of seeing a fall to 40000-39000.

DAX (23109.79, +1.13%) has risen back well. The 22200-23500 range is intact, and the index can go either way within the range in the near term. 

Nifty (23668.65, +0.04%) has come off from 23869. Failure to get a sustained rise above 23800 can drag it down to 23500-23300. We will have to wait and see.

Nikkei (37890.10, +0.29%) unable to sustain and rise higher above 38000. While the index remains below 38000, the view remains bearish towards 37000.

Shanghai (3370.1945, +0.04%) is sustaining above 3350 and needs a rise past 3380 to move higher to 3400-3450.

Brent and WTI continue to rise and may reach $ 74-$ 75 and $ 71-$ 72, respectively. Gold needs to stay above $ 3,000 to move higher; otherwise, it may test $ 2,950 before rebounding. Silver rebounded from $ 33.40 and could rise towards $ 34.50-$ 35.00. Copper is showing strong bullish momentum, potentially targeting $ 6.00-$ 6.50 in the medium term and $ 7.50-$ 8.50 in the long term. Natural gas remains bearish below $ 4.00, with a downside target of $ 3.80-$ 3.60.

Brent ($ 73.26) and WTI ($ 69.23) are gradually rising as expected and could move further up towards $ 74-$ 75 and $ 71-$ 72, respectively, in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 3,028.80) has edged up slightly. It needs to either break below $ 3,000 to test support at $ 2,950 before rebounding towards $ 3,100-$ 3,150 or stay above $ 3,000 and gradually rise to those levels.

Silver ($ 34.29) did not fall to $ 33 as expected but instead rebounded sharply from $ 33.40. It could rise further towards $ 34.50-$ 35.00 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.2715) surged to $ 5.21 yesterday and tested a high of $ 5.3740 today before pulling back. A rounding bottom pattern in the short term and a cup-and-handle formation in the long term suggest strong bullish momentum. If the neckline at $ 5.25/$ 5.30 breaks (which seems to be happening), copper could target $ 6.00-$ 6.50 in the medium term and $ 7.50-$ 8.50 in the long term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9130) remains bearish towards $ 3.80-$ 3.60 while below $ 4.00.

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
… Exp 2.7% … Expected 2.9% … Previous 3.0%

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
… Exp -0.3% … Expected -0.6% … Previous 3.1%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
… Exp 85.5 … Expected 86.8 … Previous 85.3 …Actual 86.7

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
… Exp 84.9 … Expected 85.5 … Previous 85.0 …Actual 85.7

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
… Exp 86.8 … Expected 87.9 … Previous 85.4 …Actual 87.7

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected 4.6% … Previous 4.5% …Actual 4.7%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 96.3 … Expected 94.2 … Previous 100.1 …Actual 92.9

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
… Exp 660K … Expected 682K … Previous 664K …Actual 676K