The Dollar Index needs a strong break past 105 to rise further, else can be vulnerable to fall back towards 103. The Euro is stuck between 1.7050/30-1.0850 region. EURINR needs to sustain above 92.50 to rise towards 93, else any break below 92 can be bearish for the cross. USDJPY on a rise past 151 can test 152. Failure to do so can take it lower towards 149. EURJPY has risen past 162 again and if sustained, can head towards 164-165 soon. The USDCNY needs to see a strong break past 7.27 to rise towards 7.30, else the range of 7.22-7.26 can continue to hold. AUDUSD & Pound continues to trade within respective ranges of 0.62-0.64 and 1.285-1.30 in the near term. USDINR while above 85.50, can extend the rise to 86 or higher before eventually coming down. Watch out for the US Personal Income & US PCE data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (104.269) need to see a strong break past 105 end the downtrend. Else, while below 105, Index can be vulnerable to fall back towards 103 or lower.

EURUSD (1.0794) yesterday tested the level of 1.0820 but could not sustain and again fell below 1.08. Overall, the pair is stuck between 1.0750/30-1.0850 region and break on the either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

EURINR (92.4884) is unable to sustain its rise past 92.50 which is important for the cross to rise towards 93. Failure to rise can make the cross vulnerable to fall towards 92.0-91.5.

EURJPY (162.78) witnessed a low of 161.37 before rising sharply to the high of 163.36. Now, while the resistance turned support near 162 holds, the cross has a scope to rise towards 164-165.

Dollar-Yen (150.82) on a sustained rise past 151, can head towards 152. Failure to rise past 151 can initiate a fall back towards 149, wherein a range of 151-149 can hold.

USDCNY (7.2650) continues to hover near the resistance at 7.27. The pair needs a strong break past 7.27 to turn further bullish towards 7.30 and higher. Else, it can fall back within its range of 7.22-7.26.

Aussie (0.6292) and Pound (1.2947) continues to hold the respective ranges of 0.62-0.64 and 1.285-1.300 for now. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

USDINR (85.6610) rose to the level of 85.91 yesterday, in line with our view. Currently on the NDF it is trading lower but while above 85.50, rise can get extended to 86 or higher before eventually coming down.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. We expect the yields to come down either from here itself or after some more rise from current levels. The broader trend is down. The US PCE data release today will be important to watch. The German yields sustain higher. Bullish view is intact. The yields have room to rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen back above its crucial support after an intraday break below it. We expect the support to hold and the yield to rise in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.34%) and 30Yr (4.7%) Treasury yields remain stable. The broader view is bearish to see a fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr). However, a rise to 4.45% (10Yr), 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr) is a possibility before the fall happens.

The German 10Yr (2.77%) has dipped slightly while the 30Yr (3.13%) continues to remain stable. While above at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) the outlook remains bullish to see a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6022%) fell to 6.5798% and then bounced back well. We expect the yield to sustain above 6.6% and rise to 6.7%-6.75%. A daily/weekly close below 6.6% would prove this view wrong and drag the 10Yr GoI down to 6.5%-6.45%.

The Dow Jones has fallen further; with the support near 42000, the index can rise towards 43300-43500. DAX is nearing the lower end of the sideways range of 22200-23500. Nifty has risen above 23500. Only a strong rise past 23800 would negate the fall to 23300-23300. Nikkei has dropped down to 37000. Failure to hold above would take the index lower to 36000. Shanghai, while above the support of 3350, the outlook remains bullish to 3400-3450.

The Dow (42299.70, -0.37%) has come down further. We repeat that 42000 is a good support. While that holds, the Dow can rise back to 43300-43500. A break below 42000 will bring back the danger of the fall to 40000-39000.

DAX (22678.74, -0.70%) is coming down within its 22200-23500 range in line with our expectation. The lower end of the range can be tested in the coming days.

Nifty (23591.95, +0.45%) has risen back well. A strong rise above 23800 is needed to go up to 24000 and higher. Else a fall to 23300-23200 is more likely to happen first.

Nikkei (37011.61, -2.09%) took a nosedive to 37000 and is trading above it. If a break below 37000 is seen, then a further fall to 36000 looks possible.

Shanghai (3364.2975, -0.27%) unable to rise past 3380. However, while above the support of 3350, bias remains towards seeing a rise past 3380 and moving higher to 3400-3450.

Brent and WTI remain bullish, targeting $ 75-$ 76 and $ 71-$ 72, respectively. Gold has bounced above $ 3,050 and may rise to $ 3,100. Silver faces resistance at $ 35.50; a break above could push it to $ 36-$ 38, while failure may lead to a fall towards $ 34-$ 33. Copper has dropped sharply and could decline further to $ 5.00. Natural Gas needs to break above $ 4.00 for further gains; otherwise, it remains vulnerable for a fall towards $ 3.60.

Brent ($ 73.89) and WTI ($ 69.79) remain bullish, with targets of $ 75-$ 76 and $ 71-$ 72, respectively, in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,067.10) has bounced back above $ 3,050 as expected and can continue rising toward $ 3,100 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 35.20) has surged as anticipated. Resistance is seen near $ 35.50, which must be breached for further gains to $ 36-$ 38. Otherwise, a pullback to $ 34-$ 33 is possible.

Copper ($ 5.1185) has fallen sharply to $ 5.0890, invalidating our expected bullish move. It may decline further toward support at $ 5.00 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9560) tested a low of $ 3.7320 before rebounding above $ 3.90. A rise past $ 4.00 is needed for a move toward $ 4.40-$ 4.60; otherwise, it remains vulnerable to a drop toward $ 3.60.

6:00 11:30 UK GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.1% Previous 0%

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
… Exp -16.4 … Expected -16.8 …Previous -17.4

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
… Exp – … Expected 97.0 … Previous 96.3

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.4% … Previous 0.9%

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3%

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
… Exp 0.2% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.3%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.2%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
12:30 18:00 US GDP
… Exp – … Expected 2.3% … Previous 2.3% … Previous 2.4%