The Dollar Index below 105 can be vulnerable to fall back towards 103. The Euro is stuck between 1.7050-1.0850 region, break above which can take it higher to 1.095. EURINR needs to sustain above 92.50 and rise past 93, else can fall back towards 92.0-91.5. USDJPY above 149 can attempt to rise back towards 151. EURJPY has risen past 162 again and if sustained, can head towards 164 soon. The USDCNY needs to see a strong break past 7.27 to rise towards 7.30, else can fall back within its range of 7.26-7.27. AUDUSD & Pound are trading lower within respective ranges of 0.64-0.62 and 1.300-1.285 in the near term. USDINR was closed yesterday. The outlook appears a bit bearish to 85.25-85.00 while it trades below 85.75. US Manufacturing ISM data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (104.079) continues to hold below the resistance near 105 region. On a confirmed break below 103.75, the Index can get dragged to103 or even 102 on the downside. Overall, view remains bearish below 105.

EURUSD (1.0825) is trading within a narrow range of 1.0750-1.0850. A sustained break past 1.085 can take it higher towards 1.095 in the near term.

EURINR (92.5203) needs to sustain above 92.50 and rise past 93 to turn bullish again. Else, the cross can be vulnerable to fall towards 92.0-91.5.

EURJPY (162.15) yesterday faded the gains and initially slipped to the low of 161.04 but later rose back. Currently it is trading above 162 and while it holds, can test 164 as well. Overall, an immediate range of 160-164 can hold for a while.

Dollar-Yen (149.81) is coming off from the high of 151.214 but it has immediate support near current levels and even at 149 as well. While above it, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 151 in the near term. Only if a confirmed break below 149 is seen, can be bearish for the pair.

USDCNY (7.2630) is holding well below the immediate resistance coming between 7.265-7.270. Failure to rise past it can drag it towards 7.24 or even 7.22 in the near term. Only a rise past 7.27 can bring the upper targets of 7.30/33 back into picture. Till then, its range of 7.26/27-7.22 can hold for a while.

Aussie (0.6254) and Pound (1.2932) are trading lower within its respective ranges of 0.64-0.62 and 1.300-1.285 for now. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

USDINR (85.4630) was closed yesterday on the account of Eid. While the immediate resistance at 85.75 holds, the fall can get extended to 85.25-85.00 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply. That keeps intact the broader bearish view. The yields can fall further in the coming days. The German yields are rising back from near their supports. Our bullish view is intact. We expect the yields to rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below a key support which we expected to hold. It may see an extended fall than anticipated earlier and then possibly rise back.

The US 10Yr (4.21%) and 30Yr (4.58%) Treasury yields have declined sharply since Friday. That keeps intact our bearish view of seeing a fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.73%) and 30Yr (3.09%) are bouncing back from their supports. The view is bullish while above 2.7% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr). The yields can rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5823%) has dipped below 6.6% contrary to our expectation. 6.55% is the next crucial support which can be tested while below 6.6%. We expect the yield to bounce back thereafter and rise above 6.6%.

The Dow Jones has risen to 42000; it needs a rise past 42200 to negate the fall to 40000-39000. DAX is having a support near 22000; it needs to hold to avoid a fall to 21500-21300. Nifty can fall towards 23300-23200. Nikkei has interim support near 35300 and deeper level support at 34000-33000, which can be tested. Shanghai: only a rise past 3380 would bring the rise to 3400-3450 into the picture.

The Dow (42001.76, +1%) has risen back well after a sharp fall below 42000 on Friday. The danger of the fall to 40000-39000 has come back into the picture. A rise above 42200 is needed to negate this fall.

DAX (22163.49, -1.33%) has broken the 22200-23500 range on the downside. 22000 is the next crucial support which has to hold to avoid a deeper fall to 21500-21300.

Nifty (23,519.35) is struggling to rise. That keeps the door open to see 23300-23200 on the downside first. A decisive rise above 23800-23850 is needed to clear the way for a rise to 24000 and higher. 

Nikkei (35825.54, +0.58%) fell to a low of 35541 before a slight recovery. Further, while below 37500, a decline to interim support at 35200 or to the support at a deeper level at 34000-33000 looks possible.

Shanghai (3354.9189, +0.58%) sustained above 3330 and has risen back above 3350; it needs to rise past 3380 to extend the move higher to 3400-3450. Failure to rise past 3380, the index can come down to 3300-3250.

Brent and WTI have surged following Trump’s tariff threats on Russian oil, and looks bullish in the near term. Gold is trading above $ 3,150 and may rise to $ 3,200-$ 3,250 before a possible decline. Silver faces resistance at $ 35.50 but could rebound if support at $ 34.50 holds. Copper can bounce back while it stays above $ 5.00. Natural gas has risen above $ 4.00 and is expected to rise further towards $ 4.20-$ 4.40 in the near term.

Brent ($ 74.77) has surged in line with our expectations following Trump’s threat of imposing 25-50% tariffs on Russian oil. The uptrend is likely to continue, with near-term targets of $ 76-$ 78.

WTI ($ 71.43) has also risen as anticipated. The upward momentum could persist, aiming for $ 74-$ 76 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,157.80) is trading above $ 3,150, in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 3,200-$ 3,250 seems most likely in the coming weeks before a potential decline to $ 3,000-$ 2,900.

Silver ($ 34.75) is facing resistance near $ 35.50,as the price has pulled back. Immediate support is around $ 34.50. If this holds, a rebound towards $ 35.00-$ 35.50 appears more likely in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.0505) has fallen in line with expectations, testing a low of $ 4.9850 yesterday. It remains to be seen whether it breaks below $ 5.00 or sustains above this level, potentially bouncing back to $ 5.15-$ 5.25 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 4.1140) bounced sharply above $ 4.00 on Friday and is currently holding above this level. As long as it stays above $ 4.00, further rise towards $ 4.20-$ 4.40 is expected in the coming sessions.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
… Exp 2.5% … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.5%

23:50 05:20 JP Tankan Manf
… Exp – … Expected 12 … Previous 14

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
… Exp 49.2 …Expected 48.3 … Previous 49.0

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… Exp 51.1 … Expected 50.6 … Previous 50.8

3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 4.10% … Previous 4.10%

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
… Exp 51.1 … Expected 50.4 … Previous 49.6

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
… Exp – … Expected 48.7 … Previous 47.6

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
… Exp 45.8 … Expected 44.6 … Previous 46.9

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
… Exp – … Expected 6.2% … Previous 6.2%

9:00 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
… Exp 1.9% … Expected 2.2% …Previous 2.3%

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 47.8

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
… Exp 50.5 … Expected 49.6 … Previous 50.3

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
No major data released Yesterday.