The Dollar Index and Euro are trading between 103.75-104.75 and 1.0850-1.0750/30 region respectively. Still, the Index looks bearish to 103-102, while it trades below 105. EURINR needs to sustain above 92.50 and rise past 93, else can fall back towards 92.0-91.5. USDJPY above 149 can attempt to rise back towards 151. EURJPY is trading lower within its broad range of 164-160. The USDCNY needs to see a strong break past 7.27 to rise towards 7.30, else can fall back within its range of 7.26-7.27. AUDUSD & Pound are holding the respective ranges of 0.62-0.64 and 1.285-1.300 in the near term. USDINR was closed yesterday. The outlook appears a bit bearish to 85.25-85.00 while it trades below 85.75. US ADP Employment and the IN-Manufacturing PMI data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (104.212) and EURUSD (1.0796) are moving within the respective narrow ranges of 103.75-104.75 and 1.0850-1.0750/30 region. Index on a confirmed break below 103.75 can get dragged to 103 or even 102. On the other hand, Euro on a sustained break past 1.085 can head towards 1.095 in the near term.

EURINR (92.4329) needs to sustain above 92.50 and rise past 93 to turn bullish again. Else, the cross can be vulnerable to fall towards 92.0-91.5.

EURJPY (161.79) is trading lower within its immediate range of 164-160 which is likely to persist for a while. Only a confirmed break below 160 if seen, can be bearish for the cross.

Dollar-Yen (149.86) yesterday tested the support near 149 region before bouncing back from there. While above 149, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 151-152 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.2667) is oscillating near the immediate resistance coming around 7.27 level. Only a rise past 7.27 can bring the upper targets of 7.30/33 back into picture. Else, a fall back within its range of 7.26/27-7.22 can happen.

Aussie (0.6297) and Pound (1.2926) continues to trade within its respective ranges of 0.62-0.64 and 1.285-1.300 for now. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

USDINR (85.6120) was closed yesterday on the account of annual bank closing. For now, we retain our view of fall getting extended to 85.25-85.00, while the immediate resistance at 85.75 holds the in the near term.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall. The bearish view is intact and there is room to fall more. The German yields have come down. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. We expect the German yields to reverse higher after testing their support. The 10Yr GoI can dip further to test its support and then possibly rise back again.

The US 10Yr (4.19%) and 30Yr (4.54%) Treasury yields continue to fall. The bearish view of seeing a fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) remains intact.

The German 10Yr (2.68%) and 30Yr (3.03%) yields have come down. Supports are at 2.7% (10Yr) (changed from 2.7% mentioned yesterday) and 3% (30Yr) which we expect to hold. The yields can rise back from these supports and keep the broader uptrend intact to see 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5823%) can test 6.55% and then possibly rise back above 6.6% again.

The Dow Jones closed near 42000; it needs a rise past 42200 to turn the outlook to bullish. Else the index looks bearish towards 40000-39000. DAX has risen well, and a follow-through rise would negate the downside risk to 21500-21300. Nifty has fallen below 23200, and it’s heading towards 23000-22850, possibly forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern. Nikkei tested the interim support near 35400 before a slight recovery. A break below could lead to a further fall to 34000-33000. Shanghai is attempting a rise past 3380. While below it, the index can come down to 3300-3250.

The Dow (41989.96, -0.03%) is managing to stay around 42000. As mentioned yesterday, a strong rise above 42200 might be needed to turn the outlook positive. Else, the danger of seeing 40000-39000 on the downside will remain alive.

DAX (22539.98, +1.70%) has moved back into its 22200-23500 range. A further rise from here will negate the chances of the fall to 21500-21300 and take it up to 23000-23500 again.

Nifty (23,165.70, -1.5%) has declined below 23200. It can test 23000-22850 and then rise back again. Such a move will indicate a possible inverted head and shoulder bullish reversal pattern on the chart.

Nikkei (35637.80, -0.04%) tested the interim support of 35400. The index remains vulnerable to breaking below 35400 and extending on the lower side to 34000-33000.

Shanghai (3356.9734, +0.23%) unable to rise past 3380. However, while below 3380, bias remains towards seeing a fall to 3300-3250.

Brent and WTI maintain a bullish outlook, targeting $ 76-$ 78 and $ 74-$ 76, respectively. Gold may rise towards $ 3,200-$ 3,250 before a potential reversal to $ 3,000-$ 2,900. Silver is holding above support, with a rebound towards $ 35.00-$ 35.50 likely. Copper remains above $ 5.00, with expectations of a rise to $ 5.15-$ 5.25. Natural gas has fallen below $ 4.00, with further downside potential towards $ 3.80-$ 3.60.

Brent ($ 74.35) and WTI ($ 71.10) outlook remains bullish, targeting $ 76-$ 78 and $ 74-$ 76 respectively in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,160.90) tested a high of $ 3,177 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 3,200-$ 3,250 is possible before a reversal to $ 3,000-$ 2,900 takes place.

Silver ($ 34.48) is holding above its immediate support levels. As long as it sustains, a rebound towards $ 35.00-$ 35.50 appears likely in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.0585) has not broken below $ 5.00. As long as it remains above this level, we maintain our view of a rise towards $ 5.15-$ 5.25 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9430) has broken below $ 4.00 and fell to a low of $ 3.9340 yesterday, contrary to our expectations. A further decline towards $ 3.80-$ 3.60 appears likely while it remains below $ 4.00.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -8.2

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
… Exp 56.9 … Expected – … Previous 56.3

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
… Exp – … Expected 118K … Previous 77K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
… Exp 2.5% … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.5% …Actual 2.4%

23:50 05:20 JP Tankan Manf
… Exp – … Expected 12 … Previous 14 …Actual 12

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
… Exp 49.2 …Expected 48.3 … Previous 49.0 …Actual 51.2

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… Exp 51.1 … Expected 50.6 … Previous 50.8 …Actual 51.2

3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 4.10% … Previous 4.10% …Actual 4.10%

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
… Exp 51.1 … Expected 50.4 … Previous 49.6 …Actual 48.9

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
… Exp – … Expected 48.7 … Previous 47.6 …Actual 48.6

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
… Exp 45.8 … Expected 44.6 … Previous 46.9 …Actual 44.9

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
… Exp – … Expected 6.2% … Previous 6.2% …Actual 6.1%

9:00 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
… Exp 1.9% … Expected 2.2% …Previous 2.3% …Actual 2.2%

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 47.8 …Actual 46.3

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
… Exp 50.5 … Expected 49.6 … Previous 50.3 …Actual 49