Major currency pairs witnessed volatile movements yesterday. The news came in that President Donald Trump has announced 10% tariffs across all imports and higher duties on some of the U.S.’s biggest trading partners. The Dollar Index slipped below 103.75 and now looks bearish to 102-101. On the other hand, Euro has surged past 1.09 and can head towards 1.10/11. EURINR has risen past 93 and is nearing the interim resistance near 94. USDJPY has broken below 149 and can now test either 146 or 144 before attempting to rise back higher. EURJPY continues to remain volatile within its broad range of 164-160. The USDCNY tested our target of 7.30. Now, a confirmed break past it can bring 7.33/35 into the picture. AUDUSD is holding the range of 0.62-0.64 for now. Pound has risen past 1.30 and if sustained, can extend the rally towards 1.35 in the near term. USDINR is trading higher on the NDF despite Dollar weakness. Still, while below 85.75.80, outlook appears a bit bearish to 85.25-85.00. US Trade Balance data release is scheduled today.

Donald Trump set a baseline of 10% tariffs across all imports and higher duties on some of the U.S.’s biggest trading partners. Dollar Index (103.064) has slipped to the low of 130 so far. While the fall continues, can get extended to 102-101 in the near term. Overall, view appears bearish for now.

EURUSD (1.0920) has risen past 1.09 levels, despite Trump imposing 20% tariffs on all imports from the European Union. While the rise sustains, a test to 1.10-1.11 can be witnessed in the near term.

EURINR (93.6511) has surged significantly past 93 on Euro strength. Now, an interim resistance is coming at 94, break past which will be needed to head towards 95 on the upside.

EURJPY (161.24) remained volatile within its immediate range of 164-160 as it initially tested 164.178 on the upside, followed by a fall to 160.12 before eventually recovering from there. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

Dollar-Yen (147.71) has broken below the support near 149 region. yesterday tested the support near 149 region before bouncing back from there. Now, the immediate support is coming near 146 region and lower around 144. The pair can attempt to rise back higher upon testing the either mentioned supports.

USDCNY (7.3012) has finally risen past 7.27 and even tested our initial target of 7.30 as well. Now, a confirmed break past 7.30 can take it higher towards 7.33/35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6279) continues to remain volatile within its range of 0.62-0.64 region. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

Pound (1.2926) has given a break above its range of 1.285-1.300. The pair will need to sustain above current levels and rise further to extend the rally to 1.35 in the near term. Else, any break below 1.30 can bring it back within its earlier range of 1.300-1.285.

USDINR (85.7410) on the NDF is quoting higher despite the Dollar weakness. Further weakness is possible for Dollar, need to see how Rupee performs. As long as resistance at 85.75/80 holds, we maintain our bearish view towards 85.25-85.00 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply. The fall is happening in line with our expectations. The bearish view is intact. There are good chances to see an extended fall over the medium term. The German yields have bounced. There is limited room on the downside. The broader trend is up, and we can expect the yields to rise back eventually going forward. The 10Yr GoI has declined sharply, breaking below a key support. This is contrary to our expectation to see a bounce back from the support. The trend remains down and the yield can fall further in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.07%) and 30Yr (4.46%) Treasury yields have declined sharply. The yields are coming down towards 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) in line with our expectation. A deeper fall to 3.8% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr) is also possible over the medium term.

The German 10Yr (2.72%) and 30Yr (3.07%) yields have risen back again. A near-term dip to test the support at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) is still possible. But we expect the support to hold and keep the broader uptrend intact to see 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4803%) has declined sharply below 6.55%. Our view of seeing a bounce from 6.55% has gone wrong. The yields can test 6.45%-6.4% and then possibly rise back.

The Dow Jones closes above 42200. Needs to see whether it sustains or not, especially after Trump’s decision to raise import duties has led to a sell-off in the Asian market, with US futures also in deep red. If it sustains, then it would negate the fall to 40000-39000. DAX declined to a lower or sideways range of 22200-23500 and looks vulnerable to witnessing a fall to 21500-21300. Nifty has risen, but the bias remains towards seeing a fall to 23000-22800 before seeing an upmove. Nikkei plunged to 34000 with a slight recovery; a break below 34000 would lead to a further fall to 33000. Shanghai opened lower near 3020 but has recovered and is heading towards testing 3380.

The Dow (42225.32, -0.56%) has risen and closed above 42200. Need to see if this sustains. If it does, a further rise to 42800 is possible. That in turn will negate the danger of the fall to 40000-39000. We will have to wait and see.

DAX (22390.84, -0.66%) hovers around the lower end of its 22200-23500 range. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to go up towards 23000-23500. Else the danger of the fall to 21500-21300 will continue to remain intact.

Nifty (23332.35, +0.72%) has bounced yesterday but can fall back following the sell-off in the Asian markets. We may retain our view of seeing 23000-22850 on the downside first before witnessing a reversal again.

Nikkei (34673.34, -2.94%) opened to a low of 34102 before recovering slightly. A break below 34000 would pave the way for 33000.

Shanghai (3342.8386, -0.22%) opened lower but has recovered a bit. Only a rise to 3380 would negate a fall to 3300-3250 and move higher to 3400-3450.

Brent and WTI closed higher yesterday but opened lower today, testing support levels, with a potential rebound expected. Gold hit $ 3,200 before retreating; a breakout could push it to $ 3,250-$ 3,300, while failure may lead to a fall towards $ 3,100-$ 3,000. Silver briefly broke support but recovered; sustained weakness could drag it to $ 33.50-$ 33.00. Copper looks vulnerable for a fall towards $ 4.80-$ 4.70 in the near term . Natural Gas needs to break above $ 4.00 to trigger a rally towards $ 4.20-$ 4.40.

Brent ($ 73.27) closed higher at $ 74.95 yesterday but opened lower today, near its immediate support level. As long as this support holds, a rebound towards $ 74-$ 76-$ 78 remains likely in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 69.95) settled at $ 71.71 yesterday after a strong close has opened today lower near 70, testing its support zone. If this level sustains, we anticipate an upward movement towards $ 71-$ 73-$ 75 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,168.20) as expected, tested a high of $ 3,200 yesterday and is currently falling off. It needs to break above $ 3,200 to continue the bullish momentum towards $ 3,250-$ 3,300. Else, it may undergo a corrective dip to $ 3,100-$ 3,000 before the anticipated rise occurs.

Silver ($ 33.92) broke below the immediate support and tested a low of $ 33.65 so far before bouncing back to current levels above 34. A sustained break below this support could be bearish for the price, pushing it down towards $ 33.50-$ 33.00, negating our earlier projected rise to $ 35.00-$ 35.50.

Copper ($ 4.9225) closed higher above $ 5.00, but today, it has plunged to a low of $ 4.8780 so far. The immediate support is near $ 4.90, which is holding for now but remains vulnerable to a break. A successful break below this could drag prices lower towards $ 4.80-$ 4.70. However, as long as this support holds, we expect a corrective rise to $ 5.10-$ 5.20 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9930) saw a slight rise yesterday. A sustained break above $ 4.00 is needed for the price to rally higher towards $ 4.20-$ 4.40. Else, it remains vulnerable to a fall towards $ 3.80-$ 3.60.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected 5.40 … Previous 5.62

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
… Exp – … Expected 0.1 … Previous 0.3

9:00 14:30 EU Composite PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 50.2

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
… Exp -115.8 … Expected -121.5 … Previous -131.4

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -8.2 …Actual – 29.7

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
… Exp 56.9 … Expected 57.6 … Previous 56.3 …Actual 58.1

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
… Exp – … Expected 118K … Previous 84K …Actual 155K