The Dollar Index is coming off from the level of 103.5. A confirmed break below 102 can make it bearish to 101-100. The Euro above 1.09/085 can attempt to rise back towards 1.11-1.12. EURINR is trading higher within its range of 93-95. USDJPY and EURJPY can trade within 148-144 and 160-164 region respectively. AUDUSD needs a sustained rise past 0.61 to negate a fall below 0.60. The USDCNY is rising as expected and can soon test 7.35 as well. Pound tested the support near 1.27 and while it holds, it can again attempt to rise towards 1.29-1.30. USDINR is rising in line with our view and can extend it further to 86.0-86.4 in the coming weeks.

Dollar Index (102.994) tested 103.5 before turning lower. A break below 102 is needed to confirm a fall towards 101-100; until then, a rise to 104 remains possible.

EURUSD (1.0969) spiked to 1.1050 but failed to hold. As long as support at 1.085-1.090 stays intact, a rebound towards 1.11-1.12 remains likely. A break below 1.08 would negate this view and open doors to 1.07.

EURINR (94.1717) is trading higher within its range of 93-95. Still a decisive break on the either side will be needed for further directional clarity. A sustained rise past 95 can take it higher at 97.

EURJPY (161.64) is back within its earlier range of 160-164 range and can rise higher within it.

Dollar-Yen (147.34) tested our target of 148 before coming down. Now, the pair can continue to trade within 148-144 region, until a decisive break is seen on either side.

USDCNY (7.3319) has met our initial target of 7.33 and if sustained, can test 7.35 in the near term. Thereafter, a confirmed break past 7.35 will be needed to head towards 7.40.

Aussie (0.6284) tested the high of 0.6127 but later faded the gains. Watch price action closely around current levels. Unless it breaks support turned resistance at 0.61, a danger of falling below 0.60 to 0.575 can be there.

Pound (1.2788) in line with our view tested the support near 1.27 region. Currently it has recovered a bit and while above 1.27, it can again attempt to rise back towards 1.29-1.30 in the coming sessions.

USDINR (85.8380) observed the high of 85.90 yesterday before closing near 85.83 in the onshore markets. Our view remains intact to see a rise towards 86.0-86.4 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. But need to see if they are getting a strong follow-through rise from here or not. Resistances are there to cap the upside. While the resistances hold, the broader bearish view will remain intact, and the yields can fall back again. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have risen back and keep alive the broader bullish view. A fall below the immediate support will only negate the bullish view. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI remains stable and lower. There is not much room left on the downside. We expect the yield to hold above its immediate support and rise back in the coming days. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome is due tomorrow.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and 30Yr (4.62%) Treasury yields have surged back. Need to see if they are sustaining it or not. Resistance is at 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr). While they hold, the bearish view will remain intact to see 3.8% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.61%) and 30Yr (3.01%) yields have risen back just above 2.6% and 3% respectively. That keeps alive our broader bullish view of seeing a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr). A break below 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.9% (30Yr) will only negate this bullish view and drag them to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4836%) tested 6.45% and bounced slightly. 6.4% can limit the downside and we expect the yield to bounce back to 6.6%-6.65%.

The Dow Jones recovered from a low of 36611. A rise past 38200 would be bullish for the index towards 40000. Similarly, DAX and Nifty fell to a low of 18490 and 21743, and recovery was seen above 19700 and 22100, respectively. DAX , while above 19500, looks bullish towards 20500. Nifty, while above 21700, can march towards 22800-23000. Nikkei and Shanghai also recovered from lows at 30792 and 3040. Nikkei looks bullish towards 36,000. Shanghai has the potential to rise towards 3150-3200; it needs a rise past 3120 to confirm the bullishness.

The Dow (37965.60, -0.91%) fell to 36611 and then has risen back. A strong rise above 38200 from here is needed to give some breather and increase the chances of a rise to 40000. Else there is a danger of seeing a deeper fall to 36500-36000.

DAX (19789.62, -4.13%) tumbled to a low of 18490 and then has recovered very well. A rise above 19500 can take it further up to 20500.

Nifty (22161.60, -3.24%) has recovered well from the low of 21743. The crucial support at 21700 is holding well. A further rise from here will ease the downside pressure and increase the chances of seeing 22800-23000 again on the upside.

Nikkei (33030.60, +6.08%) surged above 33000, and a follow-through rise would be bullish towards 36000 and higher.

Shanghai (3106.9947, +0.36%) has risen above 3100, up from a low of 3040. Going forward, while this rise sustains, a rise towards 3150-3200 looks possible. A rise past 3120 would confirm the expected rise

Brent and WTI continue to look weak with more downside likely in the coming weeks. Gold dipped below $ 3000 but has bounced back; needs to sustain above $ 3000 to stay bullish. Silver stays bearish below $ 32. Copper is at a crucial support; holding above can lead to a bounce, else a deeper fall is possible. Natural Gas is holding support and can rise slightly in the near term.

Brent ($ 64.70) fell to a low of $ 62.51 yesterday. a further decline towards $ 60–$ 55 looks likely in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 61.73) tested a low of $ 58.95 yesterday and appears bearish, with a near-term downside target of $ 55–$ 50.

Gold ($ 3011.30) contrary to expectations, it dipped slightly below $ 3000 and closed at $ 2973.60 yesterday. It has bounced back above $ 3000 today and needs to sustain above this level to remain bullish towards $ 3150–$ 3200. A break below $ 3000 could turn the trend bearish towards $ 2950–$ 2900.

Silver ($ 30.05) is hovering near $ 30, but as long as it remains below the immediate support-turned-resistance level of $ 32, the outlook stays bearish towards $ 28–$ 26 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.2995) is attempting to break its immediate support, having tested a low of $ 4.03 yesterday. A sustained break below $ 4.00 would confirm further bearishness towards $ 3.80–$ 3.40 in the coming months. However, as long as the support holds, a bounce back towards $ 4.40–$ 4.60 is likely in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6540) tested the immediate support at $ 3.60 yesterday, as expected. While this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 3.70–$ 3.80 is possible in the near term.

No major data release today.

DATA YESTERDAY
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9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Exp 0.7% …Expected 0.5% …Previous 0.0% … Actual 0.3%