A major selloff was witnessed yesterday in the US Stocks, Bonds, which in turn weakened Dollar. The Dollar Index slipped to the low of 99.70 yesterday. Currently it has recovered a bit but still looks vulnerable to fall to 98. The Index will have to sustain above 100 and rise higher to negate the fall. The Euro and EURINR has risen past 1.12 and 97 respectively. If the pairs sustain above 1.12 and 95, can extend it further to 1.14/15 and 98-99 respectively. EURJPY is rising within 160-164 range. USDJPY slipped below 144 and failure to rise past it can drag it further to 140 in the near term. AUDUSD has risen past 0.61 and can test the resistance near 0.63-0.635 in the coming sessions. The USDCNY is coming off from 7.35 and if the fall continues further, can get extended to support near 7.28. Pound tested 1.30 as anticipated and if sustained, can head towards 1.32 as well. USDINR was closed yesterday. It is currently trading near 86.21, and while it stays below 86.80, a further decline towards 86.10–86.00 looks likely in the near term. Watch out for the US PPI data release scheduled today.

Donald Trump announced a 90-day freeze on tariffs for major partners but at the same time increased it to 145% for China. As a result, Dollar Index (100.234) witnessed a sharp fall near our target of 99.705 yesterday. Currently it has recovered a bit from there but still a further rise past current levels will be needed. Else, failure to sustain above 100, can drag it further to 98 in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.1298) surged significantly to the high of 1.1385, even past our target of 1.12. Now, the 1.12 can act as a resistance turned support for the pair and if it sustained above it, can attempt to rise towards 1.14-1.15 as well. Watch price action closely around 1.12 to see whether it holds or not.

EURINR (97.4529) achieved our target of 97 and even exceeded it further to 97.8658 as well so far. While above 95, there is scope for the cross to extend the ongoing rise to 98-99 as well in the near term.

EURJPY (162.23) Is rising higher within its range of 160-164, which is likely to hold for a while.

Dollar-Yen (143.43) fell below the lower end of our expected range of 148-144 region, witnessed a low of 142.87 before recovering a little. Now, failure to rise past 144 can extend the fall to 140 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.3492) halted the rise at the target of 7.35 itself. Since then, it has been coming off and if the fall continues, can get extended the support near 7.28 region. Overall, a broad range of 7.35-7.25 is likely to hold for a while.

Aussie (0.6235) has moved up sharply, contrary to our expectations, breaking above 0.61. A further rise towards its near-term resistance at 0.6300–0.6335 can be expected in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3027) has risen so far as anticipated. Our target of 1.30 got achieved. Now, if the pair sustains above 1.30, can head towards 1.32 as well. The overall downside could be limited to 1.27 in the near term.

USDINR (86.2150) has remained below its immediate resistance and dropped sharply from the high of 87.61 to 83.1390 on the NDF yesterday. It is currently trading near 86.21, and while it stays below the resistance, a further decline towards 86.10–86.00 looks likely in the near term.

The US Treasury yields are holding higher. The view remains bullish to see more rise from here. The resistance-turned-support levels can limit the downside. The German yields have declined below their support. While this sustains, more fall is likely from here and will negate our earlier bullish view. The 10Yr GoI is coming down to test its key support. We expect the yield to sustain above this support and rise back going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.45%) and 30Yr (4.90%) Treasury yields remain higher. We retain the bullish view of the 30Yr rising to 5%. The 10Yr can test 4.6% on a decisive break above 4.45%.

The German 10Yr (2.57%) and 30Yr (2.95%) yields have dipped below 2.6% and 3% respectively. If this sustains, then a fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) can be seen. That will negate our earlier bullish view of seeing a rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4432%) has dipped below 6.45%. It can test 6.4% and then possibly rise back again.

The Dow Jones has again fallen below 40000, and the index is oscillating between 36600-40800. DAX retraced down to 20500 after rising to 21300. It needs a rise back above 21300 to negate the downside fall towards 19600. Nifty has support near 22000, while above this level, the outlook remains positive for seeing a rise to 22800-23000. Nikkei is holding above 33000; as long as this support holds, it can rise towards 36000. Shanghai has risen above 3200 and looks bullish towards 3280-3300.

The Dow (39593.66, -2.5%) has come down below 40000 after witnessing a strong surge on Wednesday. Broadly, the index has been oscillating in a wide range of 36600 and 40800. Better to stay out.

DAX (20562.73, +4.53%) rose to 21300 and has come down. Failure to rise back above 21300 can drag the index down to 19600 or lower. Wait and watch.

Nifty (22399.15, -0.61%) may come down following the sell-off in the global markets. But broadly, the bias remains positive to see 22800-23000. Supports are at 22000 and then at 21700-21600.

Nikkei (33148.40, -4.22%) is sustaining above 33000; while it holds above 33000, it can move higher towards 36000. A deeper level support at 30000 can be seen.

Shanghai (3212.2794, -0.34%) has risen and is sustaining above 3200. Further, if it sustains above 2200, it can rise towards 3280-3300.

Brent and WTI have dipped again after a brief recovery, with a bearish outlook targeting $ 55 and $ 50, respectively. Gold is approaching resistance at $ 3,300, with a possible dip to $ 3,100–$ 3,000 unless it breaks higher. Silver remains weak below $ 32, likely heading toward $ 28–$ 26. Copper is trending upward towards $ 4.60. Natural gas is holding support, with potential to rise to $ 3.60–$ 3.80.

Brent ($ 62.95) and WTI ($ 59.72) recovered on Wednesday following Trump’s announcement of a 90-day tariff pause. However, both have declined again today. The outlook remains bearish, with near-term targets at $ 55 and $ 50 respectively.

Gold ($ 3,226.30) has rallied higher as expected. It may test its immediate resistance at $ 3,300 in the coming sessions. If $ 3,300 holds, a decline towards $ 3,100–$ 3,000 could follow before a fresh uptrend begins. Alternatively, a breakout above $ 3,300 could trigger a rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,600, though this seems less likely at the moment.

Silver ($ 31.00) continues to trade below $ 32, and as long as it remains under this level, a decline towards $ 28–$ 26 appears more probable in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.3545) has moved higher as anticipated and is expected to continue rising towards $ 4.60 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5170) is holding above its immediate support. While it remains above this level, a rise towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80 is likely in the coming weeks. Conversely, a sustained break below the support would signal further bearishness towards $ 3.00.

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
… Exp -17.3 …Expected -17.8 … Previous -17.8

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
… Exp 4.5% …Expected 5.5% … Previous 5.0%

12:30 18:00 US PPI
… Exp 0.2% …Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.0%

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
… Exp 0.4 …Expected 0.3 … Previous -0.1

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
… Exp – …Expected 0.1 … Previous -0.7 …Actual – 0.1

1:30 07:00 CN PPI
… Exp – …Expected -2.3 … Previous -2.2 …Actual – 2.5

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.2 …Expected 0.1 … Previous 0.2 …Actual – 0.1

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.3% …Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.1%