The Dollar Index on a rise past 100 can head to 101-101.50. The Euro and EURINR tested 1.1474 and 98.77 as expected and now can witness a fall back to 1.12-1.11 and 96.0-95.5 respectively. EURJPY is stuck within 160-164 range. USDJPY needs to rise past 144 to negate the fall to140 in the near term. AUDUSD is trading near the crucial level of 0.635-0.640. The USDCNY above 7.28, can attempt to rise back towards 7.32 and higher. Pound can test 1.32 soon. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further, or the pair falls back will have to be seen. USDINR was closed yesterday. For now, view remains intact for it to see a fall to 85.50 in the near term. Watch out for the IN CPI and IN Trade Balance data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.789) looks stable above 99 for now. A confirmed rise past 100 can take it towards the support turned resistance near 101.0-101.5 region. Only a fall below 99 if seen, can drag it to 98-96, thereby delaying the anticipated rise.

EURUSD (1.1340) rose to 1.1474 on Friday before coming down. While below 1.15, the pair can fall back towards 1.12-1.11 in the near term before eventually bouncing back higher.

EURINR (97.4816) in line with our view of seeing a rise to 99, tested the high of 98.7719 before eventually turning lower. Now, the cross appears peaked out and can extend the fall to the support near 96.0-95.5 level in the coming sessions before attempting to rise back again.

EURJPY (162.38) is stuck within 160-164 region. The cross needs to see a decisive break on the either side for further directional clarity.

Dollar-Yen (143.15) has limited the downside to 142 for now. A rise past 144 will be needed to rise to 146-147 and assume that the pair has bottomed out. Else, can extend the fall to 140 initially before rising higher.

USDCNY (7.3103) is holding well above the support near 7.28 region. While above it, the pair can bounce back towards 7.32 and higher.

Aussie (0.6348) is approaching the crucial resistance between 0.635-0.640 region. Watch price action closely to see whether it rises past 0.64 or not. Failure to rise can keep the range of 0.64-0.62/61 intact for a while.

Pound (1.3196) is rising as anticipated and can soon test 1.32 as well. Thereafter, the charts have enough room to extend the rise to 1.35 but whether it will happen, or pair falls back again to 1.30-1.28 is uncertain at the moment. Wait and watch for now.

USDINR (85.9490) remained closed yesterday. On the NDF it is currently trading near 85.95 region. Overall, view remains bearish to 85.50 and lower in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields are coming down. They have support coming up which has to hold to keep alive the chances of rising back. A break below the upcoming support can drag them lower. We will have to wait and watch. The German Yields have come down further. The view is now bearish. More fall can be seen in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is hovering above its support. We expect the yield to sustain above this support and rise back in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.36%) and 30Yr (4.78%) Treasury yields are coming down. Key support is at 4.3% (10Yr). While that holds, a rise back to 4.6% is possible. Else it can fall to 4.2% and lower. The 30Yr on the other hand has room to test 4.7%-4.65%. remain higher.

The German 10Yr (2.51%) and 30Yr (2.87%) yields are coming down as expected. The fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4445%) has bounced from around 6.42%. The downside can be limited to 6.4%. We expect the 10Yr GoI to rise back towards 6.55%-6.6%.

The Dow Jones may face resistance near 41500 which can take it down towards 39000-38000. We would remain cautious between 40000-41500 region. DAX needs to break above 21300 to rise further towards 22000/22300 and to negate the downside towards 19600. Nifty has support near 22400 but a decisive rise above 23000/23500 is needed to ensure further upmove. Nikkei could be headed towards 36000 while above 33000. Shanghai could spend some time within the 3200-3300 region before attempting to move up further.
The Dow (40524.79, +0.78%) is holding above 40000. There are chances to see a rise to 41500. But, at the same time, there is also the danger of seeing a fall back to 39000-38000 again. So, need to be cautious, rather than turning bullish.

DAX (20954.83, +2.85%) is managing to sustain above 20000. But a strong rise above 21300 is needed to turn the outlook bullish and rise to 22000-22300. Else the danger of the fall to 19600 and lower will remain alive.

Nifty (22828.55, +1.92%) has to breach 23000/23500 decisively to strengthen the bullish momentum and rise to 23200-23500 again. Support is around 22400 which has to be broken to bring it under pressure again.

Nikkei (34292.46, +0.91%) has enough room to rise towards 36000 while above 33000. A decline below 33000, if seen can bring in deeper support at 32000-31000 into the picture.

Shanghai (3255.10, -0.24%) is trading lower and could face slight rejection near 3300 which can keep it ranged within 3200-3300 for a while. A decisive break above 3300 is needed for further rise towards 3400. Lower support near 3150 is holding well for now.

Crude prices remains bearish and could decline further in the coming weeks. Gold is rising and may test resistance near $ 3,300; a breakout could push it higher, while a reversal may lead to a dip. Silver needs to hold above $ 32 to continue upward, otherwise, it may fall. Copper is near resistance and could rise further if it breaks above, else a pullback is likely. Natural gas has declined unexpectedly and may drop to $ 3.00 before rebounding.

Brent ($ 65.12) has not moved much and remains bearish. It is likely to fall towards $ 60–$ 55 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 61.78) also remains bearish and may decline towards $ 55–$ 50 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,240.30) is rising in line with our expectations and faces immediate resistance near $ 3,300. This level could be tested soon. If the resistance holds, we may see a pullback towards $ 3,200–$ 3,100. However, a break above $ 3,300 would confirm a fresh bullish move towards $ 3,400–$ 3,500. Watch price action near $ 3,300 level.

Silver ($ 32.26) has moved above $ 32 but needs to sustain above this level to continue rising towards $ 33–$ 34. Failure to hold above $ 32 could lead to a decline towards $ 30–$ 28.

Copper ($ 4.6450) has risen as expected and is trading near its immediate resistance. A break above this resistance could lead to further gains towards $ 4.80–$ 5.00. If the resistance holds, prices may retreat towards $ 4.40–$ 4.20.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3410) has declined contrary to our expectations and may continue falling towards $ 3.00 in the near term before a potential bounce back.

6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
… Exp 4.5% …Expected 4.4% … Previous 4.4%

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
… Exp 2.34% …Expected 2.50% … Previous 2.38%

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
… Exp -0.2% …Expected 0.1% … Previous 0.8%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
… Exp – …Expected – … Previous -14.1

10:30 16:00 IN CPI
… Exp 3.81 …Expected 3.60 … Previous 3.61

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
… Exp – …Expected 2.4% … Previous 2.6%

DATA YESTERDAY
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No major data released yesterday.