The Dollar Index is trading within a narrow range of 99-100. Need to see a break on either side for further clarity. The Euro and EURINR can witness a fall back to 1.12-1.11 and 96.0-95.5 respectively before attempting to rise back. EURJPY is holding the range of 160-164 for now. USDJPY can have downside limited to 140 for now. A rise past 144 on the upside will be needed to bring upper targets into picture. AUDUSD continues to trade between 0.61-0.64 range. The USDCNY above 7.30, can attempt to test 7.35 as well. Pound is coming off from 1.33 and further decline below current levels will assume that it has peaked out and a fall to 1.30/29 can happen. USDINR remains bearish to 85.30-85.00 in the near term. Watch out for the ECB meeting, US Philifed Index & US Housing starts data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.584) is trading within a narrow range of 99-100. The outlook on the Index looks indecisive at the moment. A break on the either side will be needed for further clarity. A rise past 100 can take it to 101.0-101.5 region. Else, a fall below 99 can drag it to 98-96, thereby delaying the anticipated rise.

EURUSD (1.1362) is attempting to rise back but while below 1.15, we retain our view of seeing a fall back towards 1.12 or 1.11 in the near term before eventually bouncing back higher. The ECB meeting scheduled today would be important to watch. Market expects 25 bps rate cuts in today’s meeting.

EURINR (97.2810) can initially see a fall to the support near 96.0-95.5 level in the coming sessions before attempting to rise back again.

EURJPY (162.17) is holding the range of 160-164 for now. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further clarity.

Dollar-Yen (142.72) witnessed a low of 141.64 before recovering a bit from there. Overall, the downside is expected to be limited to 140 for now. On the upside, a rise past 144 will be needed to rise to 146-147.

USDCNY (7.3110) failed to sustain its rise past 7.32 and started coming off from the level of 7.3279 itself. Still while above 7.30, the rise can get extended to 7.35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6357) continues to trade within 0.62/61-0.64 range, which can remain intact for a while.

Pound (1.3222) was expected to rise to 1.35 but the pair started coming off from 1.33 itself. Now, a further decline below current levels will confirm that it has peaked out and if so, then a corrective fall to 1.30/29 can be seen in the near term. Only a rise past 1.33 can take it higher to 1.35.

USDINR (85.59) initially slipped to the low of 85.50 before recovering a bit from there. Overall, view remains bearish to 85.30 or even lower to 85.00 levels in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields continue to move down. A further fall breaking the immediate support can drag them much lower going forward. The German yields remain lower. The bearish view is intact. The yields can fall more. The ECB meeting outcome today will be important to watch. The 10Yr GoI has declined below its key support. This is contrary to our expectation to see a bounce from this support. While this break sustains, the yield can fall more in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.30%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields have dipped further. The 10Yr can fall to 4.2% on a break below 4.3%. The 30Yr has room on the downside to test 4.7%-4.65%.

The German 10Yr (2.50%) and 30Yr (2.91%) yields remain lower and stable. The bearish view is intact. The yields can fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) while below 2.6% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3889%) has declined below 6.4% contrary to our expectation. While this break sustains, the 10Yr can fall to 6.3%. Our view of seeing a rise back to 6.55%-6.6% has not worked out.

Asian equities are trading higher today while the Dow ended lower, revisiting levels below 40000 keeping danger of testing 39000-38000 alive in the near term. Dax closed above 21300 yesterday but needs a strong follow through buying to rise back towards 21800-22000 else could drag down towards 19600. Nikkei and Shanghai are trading higher today and could see a slow upmove from current levels. Nifty is also likely to move up targeting 23700/23800 soon.

The Dow (39669.39, -1.73%) has come down below 40000 again. That keeps alive the danger of revisiting 39000-38000 on the downside.

DAX (21311.02, +0.27%) has closed just above 21300. A strong follow-through rise from here can take it up to 21800-22000. That will negate the danger of the fall to 19600.

Nifty (23,437.20, +0.47%) continues to move up. Bullish view is intact. Nifty can rise to 23700-23800 on a break above 23500.

Nikkei (34177.07, +0.76%) has gained upside momentum today as it has recovered from yesterday’s dip to 33658. As mentioned yesterday, there is scope for a slow rise towards 36000 while above 33000.

Shanghai (3277.90, +0.058%) could face an interim dip from 3300 in the near term. A break above 3300 is needed for the index to head higher towards 3350-3400 which may take some time. Overall slow rise towards 3350-3400 can be seen in the medium term.

Crude prices can remain in the range of $ 68–$ 62 (Brent) and $ 64–$ 58 (WTI) in the near term. Gold has surged past $ 3,300 amid US-China trade tensions, with potential to rise toward $ 3,400–$ 3,600. Silver remains strong above $ 32, eyeing $ 34–$ 35. Copper needs to sustain above $ 4.70 for further gains; otherwise, it may fall toward $ 4.40–$ 4.20. Natural gas continues its downward trend towards $ 3.10–$ 3.00.

Brent ($ 66.13) has risen slightly. A range of $ 68–$ 62 can hold in the near term.

WTI ($ 62.86) has also edged higher. A range of $ 64–$ 58 is likely to hold for now.

Gold ($ 3,288.20) has risen sharply, breaking above $ 3,300 due to the escalating trade war between the US and China. If it sustains above $ 3,300, a further rise toward $ 3,400–$ 3,600 can be expected in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 32.18) tested a high of $ 33.18 in line with our expectations. While above $ 32, a further rise toward $ 34–$ 35 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 4.6640) saw an initial rise to $ 4.78 but fell back to close around $ 4.65 yesterday. It has to sustain above $ 4.70 to move further up toward $ 4.80–$ 5.00. Else, it remains vulnerable to a fall toward $ 4.40–$ 4.20 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2610) is continuing to decline in line with our expectations and can fall toward $ 3.10–$ 3.00 in the near term.

1:30 07:00 AU Lab Force
… Exp – …Expected 40.2K … Previous 15.2K

11:45 17:15 ECB Mtg
… Exp 2.40% …Expected 2.40% … Previous 2.65%

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
… Exp 5.0 …Expected 3.1 … Previous 12.5

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
… Exp 1381 …Expected – … Previous 1501

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
2:00 07:30 CN GDP
… Exp – …Expected 5.2 … Previous 5.4 … Actual 5.4

5:30 11:00 CN Retail Sales
… Exp – …Expected 4.2 … Previous 4.0 …Actual 5.9

5:30 11:00 CN IIP (YoY)
… Exp – …Expected 5.7 … Previous 5.9 …Actual 7.7

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
… Exp 2.3% …Expected 2.7% … Previous 2.8% …Actual 2.6%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
… Exp 1.9% …Expected 2.2% … Previous 2.3% …Actual 2.2%

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
… Exp 0.6% …Expected 1.4% … Previous 0.5% …Actual 1.4%

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
… Exp 0.3% …Expected -0.2% … Previous 0.8% … Actual – 0.3%

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
… Exp 78.3% …Expected 78.0% … Previous 78.2% …Actual 77.8%

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
… Exp – …Expected 2.8% … Previous 2.8%

13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
… Exp – …Expected 35.2 … Previous -45.2