The Dollar Index has slipped below 99 and can get dragged to 98-96 if it fails to see an immediate rise past 99. The Euro is heading to 1.15. Thereafter whether it extends the rise further or no will have to be seen. The EURINR is rising and if sustained, can head to the crucial resistance near 99 region. EURJPY is holding the range of 160-164 for now. USDJPY is nearing our downside target of 140. AUDUSD is trading near the crucial level of 0.64, break past which if seen can take it higher to 0.66-0.67 in the coming sessions. The USDCNY is nearing the support near 7.29 and while above it, targets of 7.32-7.35 are kept open. Pound has again risen past 1.33 and if sustained can test 1.35. USDINR continues to look bearish to 85.00-84.95 in the near term.
Dollar Index (98.647) has broken below 99. Failure to see an immediate rise past 99 can drag the Index to 98-96 in the near term before halting.
EURUSD (1.1477) is attempting to rise back to 1.15. Thereafter, whether 1.15 holds and the pair falls back or extends the rise to 1.16-1.18 is uncertain. For now, the view appears bullish but a break past 1.15 will confirm the anticipated rise.
EURINR (97.8460) limited the fall to 97.07 and started rising ascending higher. Immediate support is coming near 97 region, while t holds the cross can attempt to head towards the crucial resistance at 99.
EURJPY (161.82) is holding the range of 160-164 for now. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further clarity.
Dollar-Yen (141.02) is nearing our target of 140 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, 140 is anticipated to hold and produce a bounce back towards 145 in the near term. Only a break below 140 if seen can be bearish for the pair.
USDCNY (7.2934) is nearing the support around 7.29 region. While above it, target of 7.32 or even 7.35 is kept alive.
Aussie (0.6394) is trading near the upper end of its range of 0.62/61-0.64 range. A confirmed break past 0.64 can take bring 0.66-0.67 into picture. Else the range can continue to remain intact.
Pound (1.3360) has risen past 1.33 again and if sustained, can test the higher resistance at 1.35 region before getting peaked out.
USDINR (85.3490) was closed on Friday. For now, we retain our view of seeing a fall to 85.00-84.95 before the pair attempts to rise back higher.
The US Treasury yields are managing to hold above their support. A strong rise above the immediate resistance is needed to move up further and avoid the danger of falling back again. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields have dipped further. The bearish view is intact. The yields can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI continues to move down in line with our expectation. Outlook is bearish.
The US 10Yr (4.35%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields are holding above 4.3% and 4.7% respectively. A rise above 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) is needed to take them up to 4.6% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) again. It is a wait and watch situation.
The German 10Yr (2.47%) and 30Yr (2.89%) yields have dipped again. The bearish view remains intact to see fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) while below 2.6% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (6.3709%) has come down further. While below 6.4%, the view is bearish to see a fall to 6.3%.
Most equities look weak except the Nifty and Shanghai which continue to move up and maintain a slow upward momentum. Dow and Dax look weak towards 38000 and 20000-19600 while Nikkei can test 34000 before rising towards 35000 eventually. Nifty needs a strong break above 24000 to continue its upmove while Shanghai could be on a slow rise towards 3300-3350.
The Dow (39142.23, -1.33) has declined sharply. The bias is negative to revisit 38000 levels.
DAX (21205.86, -0.49%) has come down, failing to sustain above 21300. That keeps alive the danger of it falling back to 20000-19600 again.
Nifty (23851.65, 1.77%) has risen and closed above 23800. A strong break above 24000 from here will be very bullish to see 25000 on the upside in the coming weeks.
Nikkei (34307.52, -1.22%) has dipped today but in the medium term, it could have scope to rise towards 35000 while above 34000. An immediate range of 34000-35000 can hold for the next few sessions.
Shanghai (3285.68, +0.27%) has been slowly moving higher since the last week. We may expect a slow rise towards 3300-3350 in the coming days. Overall near term trend looks bullish.
Gold drifts higher today to see a fresh high of 3395 while global trade tariff uncertainties remain intact, and investors turn to the yellow metal as safe haven. A further rise towards $ 3450/3460 looks likely in the near term. Silver is also moving up slowly and while above support at $ 32, it can move up further towards $ 34/35. Brent and WTI have dipped today and could trade within $ 68-64/62 and $ 66-62/60 for sometime before attempting to rise further in the medium term. Copper can head towards $ 4.9-5 soon while Natural Gas looks bearish towards support at 3.
Brent ($ 66.78) has dipped from $ 68.14 seen on Friday. Earlier support turned resistance at $ 68 seems to be holding well for now and a possible range of $ 68-64/62 can hold for a while before Brent attempts to rise towards $ 70 in the medium term.
WTI ($ 62.83) has interim resistance near $ 66, below which the price can trade within $ 66-62/60 in the near term.
Gold ($ 3390.60) has been in a strong upmove, rising to a fresh high of $ 3395 today. The demand for the yellow metal may increase in current times of uncertainty on global trade tariff war. A rise towards 3450/3460 looks possible soon.
Silver ($ 32.71) is maintaining its upmove and while above immediate support at $ 32, it can slowly move up towards $ 34/35 soon.
Copper ($ 4.7105) could be headed towards $ 4.9-$ 5.00 while above $ 4.70. Immediate trend looks bullish for the coming sessions.
Natural Gas ($ 3.17) has dipped from a close of $ 3.24 seen on Friday and in line with our expectations, can continue to decline towards support near $ 3.00 in the near term before attempting to bounce back.
No major data release today.
DATA FRIDAY
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23:30 05:00 JP CPI
… Exp 3.6 … Expected 3.2 … Previous 3.6 … Actual 3.6