Trump administration has considered slashing tariffs on Chinese imports. The Dollar Index rose to 99.93 as markets took the news positively. The overall upside is capped at 101 and can eventually resume its downtrend towards 98-96. The Euro and EURINR are coming off but has limited downside to the support near 1.13-1.12 and 96-95. Eventually, the pairs can rise towards 1.16-1.18 and 99 respectively. EURJPY is holding the range of 160-164 for now. USDJPY has bounced within its 140-144 range. AUDUSD has slipped below 0.64 and is back within its old range of 0.64-0.62/61. The USDCNY has inched lower but while above 7.29/28 the targets of 7.32-7.35 are kept open. If the fall persists in Pound can extend further to 1.32-1.30 in the coming sessions. USDINR is rising in line with our view and the targets of 85.75/80 or 86 can be tested before eventually coming down. US Durable Goods and US Existing Home Sales data releases are scheduled today.

Trump administration considering slashing tariffs on Chinese imports and stronger US New Home Sales data release at 724K(680K) led Dollar Index (99.60) to test 99.93 on the upside. Even if the Index rises further, the upside can be capped at 101 max. Either from current levels or from 101, it can resume its fall to 98-96.

EURUSD (1.1350) is coming off on Dollar strength. Overall, downside can be limited to 1.13-1.12 region. Eventually, the pair can start rising towards 1.16-1.18.

EURINR (97.0739) yesterday tested the high of 97.76 before turning lower. An immediate support is coming between 96.0-95.5 region. While it holds, the target of 99 is kept alive.

EURJPY (162.04) continues to trade within its range of 160-164. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further clarity.

Dollar-Yen (142.72) yesterday rose well within its range of 140-144 as it tested 143.58 before coming down. Until a decisive break is seen on either side, the range is likely to persist in the near term.

USDCNY (7.2968) was expected to rise towards 7.32 or even 7.35 but the pair started coming off from 7.3113 itself. Still while above 7.29/28, the pair can attempt to rise back higher. Only if a break below 7.28 is seen can drag it further to 7.25, thereby delaying the rise.

Aussie (0.6359) failed to sustain above 0.64 and turned lower from 0.6436 itself. Currently it is back within its earlier range of 0.64-0.62/61, and it can persist for a while until a rise past 0.64 is seen. 0.64.

Pound (1.3280) is falling as anticipated and can extend it further to 1.32-1.30 in the coming sessions. Only a strong rise past 1.35 will be needed to maintain the ongoing bullish trend.

USDINR (85.5130) yesterday surged to the level of 85.5250 before coming down. while above 85, we may expect a test of 85.75/80 or a maximum of 86 before turning lower again in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and stable. The near-term outlook remains weak. The yields can fall more from here. The German yields have bounced but are unlikely to sustain. The bearish view is intact, and the yields can fall back again. The 10Yr GoI is holding above its support. That keeps alive the chances of a relief bounce in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.36%) and 30Yr (4.80%) Treasury yields remain lower and stable. View remains the same. The 10Yr can fall now 4.2%-4.1% while below 4.4%. The 30Yr can see 4.7%-4.65% on the downside.

The German 10Yr (2.49%) and 30Yr (2.91%) yields have bounced back but are unlikely to sustain. The view remains bearish. The yields can fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) while they remain below 2.6% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3294%) tested 6.3% and has bounced form the low of 6.2953%. While above 6.3%, a bounce to 6.4%-6.45% is possible in the near-term. But a break below the 6.3%-6.28% support region will increase the danger of a deeper fall to 6.15% and even lower. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow Jones closed in the positive yesterday but could find some resistance near 40500/800. Immediate range of 37800-40800 can hold for the near term. Dax seems to be heading towards 22000-22300. Thereafter a break above 22300 if seen can take it higher towards resistances of 22500-22600. Nifty is bullish towards 24500-25000 while above 24000-23850 support zone. Nikkei and Shanghai have risen as expected and look bullish towards 36000-36500 and 3350-3400 from where some correction can be expected.

The Dow (39606.57, +1.07%) was up yesterday. But the fall from the intraday high of 40376 may indicate the absence of strong follow-through buyers. Immediate outlook is mixed and range-bound between 37800 and 40800.

DAX (21961.97, +3.14%) has surged and is heading up towards 22000-22300 much faster than expected. 22300 and 22500-22600 are crucial resistances that will need a close watch.

Nifty (24329, 0.67%) continues to move up. Bullish outlook is intact to see 24500-25000 while above the 24000-23850 support zone.

Nikkei (35223.03, +1.02%) has risen well, breaking above 35000 in line with our expectations and is headed towards the 36000-36500 zone now, from where a correction can be possible in the medium term.

Shanghai (3302.39, +0.18%) has risen as expected and could test 3350-3400 soon in the coming sessions. The immediate view is bullish from current levels.

Crude prices have declined sharply on global oversupply fears and may stay within a defined range unless key levels are breached. Gold rebounded above $ 3,300 after dipping, with further direction dependent on whether it holds this level. Silver shows bullish potential above $ 33.50, while copper remains bearish below $ 4.95 with room to fall. Natural gas has found support at $ 3.00 and could rise toward $ 3.40 in the near term.

Brent ($ 66.31) and WTI ($ 62.43) have sharply reverted due to fears of a global oversupply. While remaining below the levels of $ 68 and $ 66, a range of $ 68–$ 62 and $ 66–$ 60, respectively, could hold for some time.

Gold ($ 3,361.40) fell to $ 3,270.80 yesterday but has rebounded above $ 3,300 today. A sustained move below $ 3,300 is needed to revisit the earlier mentioned levels of $ 3,200–$ 3,100. Otherwise, the price could potentially rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 33.40) rose sharply, testing a high of $ 33.68 yesterday. A sustained break above $ 33.50 would pave the way for higher levels of $ 34.50–$ 35.50 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, it can remain range-bound between $ 33.50–$ 32.00 before a potential rise occurs.

Copper ($ 4.8455) has reversed from $ 4.9320 and fell to $ 4.8210 yesterday, as previously mentioned. As long as it remains below $ 4.95/$ 5.00, we expect a further decline towards $ 4.80–$ 4.60 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1490) closed lower at $ 3.0220 yesterday and opened with a gap-up today at $ 3.1560. Hence, the support at $ 3.00 has held as anticipated, and the price can now move further up towards $ 3.20–$ 3.40 in the coming sessions.

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Exp 86.5 …Expected 85.2 …Previous 86.7

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Exp 84.5 …Expected 85.4 …Previous 85.7

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Exp 88.2 …Expected 85.0 …Previous 87.7

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Exp 0.2% …Expected 1.5 …Previous 0.9

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Exp 4248K …Expected 4140K …Previous 4260K

DATA YESTERDAY
………….
9:00 21:30 EU Trade Bal
Exp – …Expected 14.9 …Previous 14.4 … Actual 21.0

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Exp 699K …Expected 680K …Previous 674K … Actual 724K