The Dollar Index has limited upside to 101. Either from current levels or upon testing 101, it can resume its fall to 98-96. The Euro and EURINR have supports coming at 1.13-1.12 and 96-95.5 region, above which the targets of 1.16-1.18 and 99 are kept open respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY are holding the ranges of 160-164 and 140-144 respectively. AUDUSD is again attempting to rise past 0.64. Watch price action closely to see whether it breaks past it or continues to trade within 0.64-0.62 region. The USDCNY above 7.29/28 can target 7.32-7.35 in the coming sessions. Pound is stuck within 1.32-1.34 region. USDINR has turned lower from 85.6675 itself and now can extend the fall to 85 as well.

Dollar Index (99.57) is unable to rise past 100. The overall upside looks capped at 101 max. Either from current levels or upon testing 101, it can resume its fall to 98-96.

EURUSD (1.1350) and EURINR (96.7808) needs to see a sustained rise past 1.14 & 97.50 to test 1.16-1.18 & 99 respectively in the coming weeks. Else, the pairs can initially fall back towards 1.13-1.12 and 96.0-95.5 respectively before eventually ascending higher.

EURJPY (162.24) and Dollar-Yen (142.96) continues to trade within its respective ranges of 160-164 and 140-144. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further clarity.

USDCNY (7.2965) while above 7.29/28, can attempt to rise back towards 7.32-7.35. Only if a break below 7.28 is seen can drag it further to 7.25, thereby delaying the rise.

Aussie (0.6359) has been trading within a narrow range of 0.635-0.645 since the last few sessions. While below 0.64, pair can be vulnerable to fall back towards 0.63-0.62 and thereby a broad range of 0.64-0.62 can hold for a while. Only a sustained rise past 0.645 can make it bullish further.

Pound (1.3305) is stuck within 1.32-1.34 region for a while. The immediate upside can be limited to 1.35 region. We will have to wait and see whether it breaks below 1.32 or rises past 1.34/35 for further directional clarity.

USDINR (85.2320) as anticipated to rise to 85.75/80 or 86 max but it started coming off from 85.6675 itself. Now, the fall can get extended to 85. Thereafter, whether it gets extended to 84.50 or trades within the broad range of 85.75-85.00 will have to be seen.

The US Treasury yields are coming down in line with our expectation. They can fall further to test their support. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a reversal is happening or not. The German yields have bounced but are unlikely to sustain. The view remains bearish, and the yields can reverse lower again. The 10Yr GoI has bounced well. If this sustains, a further rise is possible. The crucial support is holding well for now. But a strong follow-through rise above the immediate resistance is needed to negate the danger of falling back.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and 30Yr (4.71%) Treasury yields fell sharply on Friday. The fall to 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.65% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation. The price action thereafter will be crucial to see if a reversal is happening or not.

The German 10Yr (2.47%) and 30Yr (2.89%) yields have bounced slightly. But the view remains bearish to see a fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) while below 2.6% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr). So, this bounce will be short-lived.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3645%) has risen back well. If this sustains, a further rise to 6.4% is possible. A rise above 6.4% will give some relief and reduce the danger of breaking the crucial 6.3%-6.28% support zone.

Dow Jones is hovering around 40,000 with potential to rise towards 40,700–41,000, while DAX continues to move higher towards 22,300–22,600, where price action needs close monitoring. Nifty fell sharply but is holding above 23,850; a further dip to 23,500 is possible before resuming its bullish trend towards 24,500–25,000. Nikkei is progressing towards 36,000–36,500 as expected, after which a medium-term correction could occur. Shanghai remains bullish above 3,250, with targets of 3,350–3,400 in the coming weeks.

The Dow (40113.50, +0.05%) continues to hover around 40000. The chances of seeing a rise to 40700-41000 remains alive. The outlook remains mixed. For now the 37800-41000 range remains intact.

DAX (22242.45, +0.81%) continues to move up and is heading up towards 22300-22600. The price action around 22600 will need a close watch to see if the upmove is extending or reversing lower again.

Nifty (24039.35, -0.86%) fell sharply on Friday. But the support at 23850 is holding well for now. Failure to bounce back immediately can take the Nifty down to 23500 first and then a rise can happen. But overall, the bullish view of seeing 24500-25000 will still remain intact.

Nikkei (35,937.11, -0.11%) is moving up in line with our expectations and can soon achieve our target of 36,000–36,500 on the higher side. Thereafter, a correction may be possible in the medium term.

Shanghai (3,281.80, +0.40%) has dipped slightly, but as long as it holds above 3,250, our view remains bullish towards 3,350–3,400 in the coming weeks.

Brent and WTI are trading within their expected ranges and may continue to do so until a breakout occurs. Gold is holding above its key support at $ 3,300, with potential to rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,500. Silver failed to sustain above $ 33.5 and may fall further towards $ 32.0. Copper remains weak below $ 4.90, with chances of declining towards $ 4.60–$ 4.40. Natural Gas is holding above $ 3.0 and could rise towards $ 3.2–$ 3.4 in the near term.

Brent ($ 66.86) and WTI ($ 63.08) are trading within the earlier mentioned range and are expected to remain between $ 68–$ 62 and $ 66–$ 60 respectively for some time, until a breakout occurs on either side.

Gold ($ 3,300) the 13-day moving average support near $ 3,300 is holding well for now. As long as this support remains intact, we expect a rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,500 in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break below $ 3,300 could drag prices down to $ 3,200–$ 3,100, but this looks less likely at the moment.

Silver ($ 32.76) the expected rise towards $ 34.5–$ 35.5 did not materialize, as the price failed to sustain above $ 33.5 and fell sharply to $ 32.70 on Friday. It may fall further towards $ 32.0 in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 4.7945) has fallen below $ 4.80 as anticipated. As long as it stays below $ 4.95, we maintain our view of a further decline towards $ 4.60–$ 4.40 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1410) is holding above $ 3.0 and is inching up slightly as expected. It can move further up towards $ 3.2–$ 3.4 in the coming sessions.

10:30 16:00 IN IIP
… Exp -0.4% … Expected – … Previous 2.9%

DATA FRIDAY
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23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Exp -19 …Expected -21 …Previous -19 … Actual – 23