The Dollar Index on a break below 99 can get dragged towards 98-96. The Euro and EURINR have supports coming at 1.13-1.12 and 96-95.5 region, above which we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 1.16-1.18 and 99. EURJPY and USDJPY are holding the ranges of 160-164 and 140-144 respectively. AUDUSD needs to rise past 0.645 level to test 0.66 on the upside. Else, it can continue to trade within 0.645-0.635 range. The USDCNY is trading near the support at 7.28. Failure to sustain above it can drag it further to 7.26/25. Pound is headed to the higher resistance at 1.35 region. USDINR is trading near 85 region. Need to see whether it holds above it or extends the fall to 84.80.50 in the coming sessions. US Case Shiller & US Consumer Confidence data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.16) is coming off as anticipated and a fall below 99 can drag it further to 98-96. The overall upside looks capped at 101 max.

EURUSD (1.1390) has bounced well from the support near 1.13 and while above it and the lower support at 1.12, the targets of 1.16-1.18 are kept open for now. Similarly, EURINR (97.018) above 96.0-95.5 can test 98-99 in the coming sessions.

EURJPY (162.24) and Dollar-Yen (142.96) are holding their respective ranges of 164-160 and 144-140. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further clarity.

USDCNY (7.2790) is trading near the support around 7.28. Failure to see an immediate rise past 7.30 can make it vulnerable to extend the fall to deeper support around 7.26/25 region before attempting to rise back. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

Aussie (0.6359) has risen past 0.64 again and a confirmed break past 0.645 if seen, can bring 0.655-0.660 into picture. At the same time, failure to rise past 0.645 can keep the range of 0.635-0.645 intact.

Pound (1.3439) is headed towards the higher resistance at 1.35 region. Upon testing, if the resistance holds, a fall back towards previous levels can be seen thereafter.

USDINR (85.0950) remained volatile yesterday as it initially tested 85.6550, followed by a sharp decline to 84.96 before closing above 85 for the day. Now, price action around 85 will be needed to watch closely as to see whether it holds the range of 85.00-85.75 or extends the fall to 85.80-85.50 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields are moving down as expected. The price action indicates that they can break their immediate support and see an extended fall in the coming days. The US PCE data release due for tomorrow will need a close watch. The German yields have risen further. This is just a corrective rise within the broad downtrend. The upside will be capped, and the fall can resume in some time. The 10Yr GoI has moved up well and can rise further to test its key resistance. The price action around the resistance will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.21%) and 30Yr (4.68%) Treasury yields have come near 4.2% and 4.65% respectively as expected. The 10Yr has room to see 4.1% on the downside. The 30Yr on the other hand can fall to 4.55%-4.5% on a break below 4.65%.

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and 30Yr (2.94%) yields have risen further. A corrective bounce happening. 2.6% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) can cap the upside. View remains bearish to see 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3959%) rose further to test 6.4% as expected. An extended rise to 6.45% looks likely. The price action thereafter will need a watch to gauge whether this is just a corrective rise or a trend reversal.

The Dow is sustaining at higher levels and can move towards the upper end of its 37,800–41,000 range. The DAX has dipped slightly and needs a strong break above 22,600 to rise towards 23,000; otherwise, it could fall back to 22,000–21,800. Nifty rebounded sharply, keeping the broader bullish outlook intact, with a break above 24,360 likely opening the path towards 24,500–25,000. Nikkei remains bullish and is moving towards 36,500–37,000, where a medium-term correction may occur. Shanghai remains flat but holds above 3,250, keeping hopes alive for a gradual rise towards 3,350–3,400.

Dow (40227.59, +0.28%) sustains higher. It can move up towards the upper end of the 37800-41000 range.

DAX (22271.67, +0.13%) has come off from the high of 22443. As mentioned yesterday, a strong break above 22600 is needed to move up to 23000 and higher. Else the DAX can fall back to 22000-21800 and lower.

Nifty (24328.50, +1.20%) rose back sharply, recovering the loss made on Friday. That keeps the broader bullish view intact. A break above 24360 can clear the way for the rise to 24500-25000.

Nikkei (35839.99, +0.38%) has been moving as expected and remains bullish towards 36500-37000 from where a correction looks possible in the medium term.

Shanghai (3281.61, -0.21%) has dipped slightly and has been overall trading flat for the last few sessions. While above 3250, we keep bullish hopes alive for a slow eventual rise towards 3350-3400.

Crude prices can fall towards $ 64–$ 62 (Brent) and $ 60–$ 58 (WTI) in the near term. Gold is holding above $ 3,300 and could gradually rise to $ 3,400–$ 3,500, while a break below $ 3,270 may trigger a deeper drop. Silver found support near $ 32.50 and may head towards $ 34–$ 35 if this level holds. Copper remains under pressure below $ 4.95, with a downside target of $ 4.60–$ 4.40. Natural gas has risen as expected and may test resistance at $ 3.50–$ 3.60 before a likely pullback to $ 3.00.

Brent ($ 65.72) and WTI ($ 61.95) have declined after facing resistance at their 13-day moving averages and may fall further towards $ 64–$ 62 and $ 60–$ 58, respectively.

Gold ($ 3,340.80) is hovering around the $ 3,300 level and may gradually rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,500 in the upcoming sessions. A sustained break below $ 3,300–$ 3,270 could trigger a further decline towards $ 3,200–$ 3,100, although this appears less likely for now.

Silver ($ 33.27) dipped to a low of $ 32.59 yesterday. The 13-day moving average support is currently near $ 32.50. As long as this support holds, a gradual rise towards $ 34–$ 35 can be expected in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.8930) recovered slightly to $ 4.86 yesterday. However, while it remains below $ 4.95, we maintain our outlook for a further decline towards $ 4.60–$ 4.40 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3350) has surged to $ 3.3650, in line with expectations. Resistance near $ 3.50–$ 3.60 may be tested in the near term, followed by a potential pullback towards $ 3.00.

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
… Exp 95.1 … Expected 94.5 …Previous 95.2

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected 4.6% … Previous 4.7%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 89.5 … Expected 87.4 … Previous 92.9

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
10:30 16:00 IN IIP
… Exp 1.0% … Expected 3.3% … Previous 2.7% … Actual 3.1%