The Dollar Index is trading within 99-100 region for now. A confirmed fall below 99 can open the doors for 98-96. The Euro and EURINR have supports coming at 1.13 and 96 region, above which we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 1.16-1.18 and 99. EURJPY and USDJPY are holding the ranges of 160-164 and 140-144 respectively. AUDUSD needs to rise past 0.645 to bring 0.66 into picture. Else, it can continue to trade within 0.645-0.635 range. The USDCNY tested 7.2599 before recovering from there. While above 7.26, a rise to 7.28/30 is possible. Pound has upside capped at 1.35/36 region. USDINR below 85.40 can be vulnerable to break below 85 and get dragged towards 854.70/50. Watch out for the US ADP Employment & US Personal Income, US PCE & US GDP data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.368) has been trading within a narrow range of 99-100 since the last few sessions. Immediate outlook appears indecisive at the moment. For now, the upside looks capped at 101 and a fall below 99 can drag it further to 98-96. The US PCE & the US GDP data release scheduled today might give better clarity.

EURUSD (1.1364) is unable to sustain above 1.14 which will be needed to rise further. While above 1.13, rise to 1.16-1.18 cannot be ruled out. Similarly, EURINR (96.8701) is trading within 97.5-96.5 region for a while. Still, while above 96 the cross is likely to move higher towards 98-99 soon.

EURJPY (161.84) and Dollar-Yen (142.43) are holding their respective ranges of 164-160 and 144-140. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further clarity.

USDCNY (7.2790) yesterday slipped sharply to the low near 7.2599 before rising back from there. While the pair holds above 7.25, it can attempt to rise back towards 7.28-7.30 in the coming sessions. The outlook can only turn bearish if a break below 7.25 happens.

Aussie (0.6401) needs to see a confirmed break past 0.645 to bring 0.655-0.660 into picture. Else, failure to rise past 0.645 can keep the range of 0.635-0.645 intact.

Pound (1.3443) in line with our view of seeing a rise to 1.35, the pair tested 1.3443 on the upside before coming down. The immediate upside is capped at 1.35-1.36 region. Upon testing, if the resistance holds, a fall back towards 1.30 levels can be seen thereafter.

USDINR (85.2260) closed above 85 for the day. An immediate resistance is coming around 85.40, while support lies near 85.00. For now, bias remains bearish for a break below 85.00 and a subsequent fall towards 84.70-84.50 levels. Wait and watch for now.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall in line with our expectation. There is room to fall more to test their support. The price action thereafter will need a close watch. The US PCE data release today is important to watch. A lower PCE number may drag the yields further down. The US PCE (YoY) for March is currently at 2.54%. The German yields have reversed lower, failing to sustain the bounce as expected. The bearish view is intact. The yields can fall more. The 10Yr GoI has come down failing to break the immediate resistance. It can remain stuck in a narrow range for some time. We will have to wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and 30Yr (4.64%) Treasury yields have come down further as expected. The fall to 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.55%-4.5% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation.

The German 10Yr (2.49%) and 30Yr (2.92%) yields have reversed lower, failing to sustain the bounce as expected. While below 2.6% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr), the view is bearish to see a fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3419%) has come down sharply failing to breach 6.4%. Looks like it can remain stuck between 6.3% and 6.4% for some time now. Need to wait and watch.

The Dow is approaching the upper end of its 37,800–41,000 range, with key resistance at 40,800–41,000. DAX looks strong and could rise towards 23,500, while Nifty maintains a bullish bias towards 25,000 with support at 24,200–24,000. Nikkei remains firm and may head to 37,000 before a possible correction. Shanghai is range-bound between 3,250–3,300 and may stay sideways in the near term.

The Dow (40257.62, +0.75%) is heading up towards the upper end of the 37800-41000 range. The price action in the 40800-41000 region will need a close watch to see if the range is going to remain intact or a breakout is happening.

DAX (22425.83, +0.69%) is moving up well. The chances are looking high for it to breach 22600 and rise to 23000-23500 again. Support is at 22000.

Nifty (24335.95, +0.03%) broke 24360 but did not sustain. Bias remains bullish to see 24500-25000 on the upside. Any fall from here can find support at 24250-24200 and then at 24000.

Nikkei (35856.56, +0.046%) is rising today as well and looks bullish for the near term towards 36500-37000. Thereafter, a corrective dip can be seen in the medium term.

Shanghai (3279.62, -0.21%) has been showing signs of small dips in the last few sessions instead of moving higher towards 3300. It may show some ranged movement in the 3300-3250 region for sometime before attempting to rise to higher levels. The next few sessions could remain sideways.

Brent and WTI have declined as expected and may fall further to $ 62 and $ 58, respectively. Gold remains bullish above $ 3,300 with potential to rise towards $ 3,500, while Silver could head towards $ 35. Copper continues to weaken and may drop to $ 4.40. Natural gas faces resistance at $ 3.50, with a possible decline to $ 3.00 unless it breaks above for a move towards $ 4.00.

Brent ($ 63.22) has declined in line with our expectations and may fall further towards $ 62 in the near term.

WTI ($ 60.30) has also moved lower as anticipated and can extend the fall towards $ 58 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,327.30) is trading above $ 3,300, and while it remains above this level, our view stays intact for a rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,500.

Silver ($ 33.28) has risen as expected and could continue to move higher towards $ 34–$ 35 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.8095) has declined in line with our expectations and may continue falling towards $ 4.60–$ 4.40 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3850) touched a high of $ 3.4570 yesterday. Immediate resistance is near $ 3.50. While this level holds, we might see a fall towards $ 3.20–$ 3.00. Alternatively, a sustained break above $ 3.50 could open the door to higher levels of $ 3.80–$ 4.00.

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… Exp 52.0 … Expected 49.8 …Previous 51.2

1:30 07:00 AU CPI
… Exp 2.1% … Expected 2.3% …Previous 2.4%

10:00 15:30 EU Flash GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.1% …Previous 0.2%

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
… Exp – … Expected 123.0K …Previous 155.0K

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.4% …Previous 0.8%

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.1% …Previous 0.4%

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.1% …Previous 0.4%

12:30 18:00 US GDP
… Exp – … Expected 3.1% …Previous 2.4%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
… Exp – … Expected – …Previous 0.4%

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
… Exp 95.1 … Expected 94.5 …Previous 95.0 …Actual 93.6

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected 4.6% … Previous 4.7% …Actual 4.5%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 89.5 … Expected 87.4 … Previous 92.9 …Actual 86.0