The Dollar Index is attempting to rise higher, but the upside looks capped at 101. A confirmed fall below 99 can open the doors for 98-96. The Euro and EURINR can have downside limited to 1.12 and 95 region. Eventually both can ascend towards 1.16-1.18 and 98/99 respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY have risen past the ranges of 160-164 and 140-144 respectively. Now if sustained, can extend it further to 146 and 166 respectively. AUDUSD needs to rise past 0.645 to bring 0.66 into picture. Else, it can continue to trade within 0.645-0.635 range. The USDCNY while trades above 7.26, a rise to 7.28/30 is possible. Pound is coming off and break below 1.32 can drag it lower to 1.30. USDINR tested 84.46 before recovering from there. While above 84.45, we anticipate the spot to rise back towards 84.80 in the near term. Watch out for the US NFP and the Unemployment data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (100.11) has risen past 100 but the overall upside can be limited to 101. While the resistance at 101 holds, Index is likely to fall back and a fall below 99 can drag it further to 98-96.

EURUSD (1.1299) has immediate support near current levels and deeper at 1.12. For now, while above 1.12, we retain our view of pair bouncing back towards 1.16-1.18. Similarly, EURINR (95.4173) has slipped below 96 and can now test 95 on the downside before attempting to rise back towards previous levels.

EURJPY (164.31) and Dollar-Yen (145.43) have finally risen past the upper end of their respective ranges of 164-160 and 144-140. Now, while if the rise sustains, can get extended to 146-147 and 166/67 respectively in the near term.

USDCNY (7.2701) is closed today. While the pair holds above 7.25, it can attempt to rise back towards 7.28-7.30 in the coming sessions. The outlook can only turn bearish if a break below 7.25 happens.

Aussie (0.6413) needs to see a confirmed break past 0.645 to bring 0.655-0.660 into picture. Else, failure to rise past 0.645 can keep the range of 0.635-0.645 intact.

Pound (1.3297) has been coming off from 1.3443. A break below 1.32 if seen can open the doors for 1.31-1.30 on the downside. The immediate upside is capped at 1.35-1.36 region.

USDINR (84.5270) was closed yesterday. On Wednesday it tested our target near 84.46 before closing higher. The immediate support near 84.45 could hold for now and push the pair higher towards 84.60–84.80 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields are bouncing back from their lows. While there is room to move up further, a strong follow-through rise is needed to sustain. Else the yields can fall back. We will have to wait and see. The US Unemployment data release today will be important to watch. The German yields are coming down in line with our expectation. The bearish outlook is intact. The 10Yr GoI is stuck in a narrow range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity.

The US 10Yr (4.23%) and 30Yr (4.73%) Treasury yields are rising back from the low of 4.12% and 4.6% respectively. If this sustains, a further rise to 4.3%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) can be seen in the near term.

The German 10Yr (2.44%) and 30Yr (2.88%) yields are coming down in line with our expectation towards 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.7% (30Yr) respectively.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3559%) remains stuck inside 6.3%-6.4% as expected. We will have to wait for a breakout on either side to get clarity on the next move.

Dow needs to see a sustained rise above 41000 else can fall to 39800 or lower. Dax looks bullish and a further rise above 22600 can take it to 23000-23500. Nifty is bullish for a rise towards 24700-25000 on a break above 22400. Nikkei has risen sharply as the BOJ lowered its growth and inflation forecasts yesterday signalling a hawkish stance although it kept the key interest rates unchanged. Immediate resistance is seen at 37000 which needs to hold for a shirt correction else the index can be strongly bullish towards 40000. Shanghai may dip to 3250 before rising back towards 3300 eventually. The index is not looking very strong at the moment.

The Dow (40752.96, +0.21%) rose to 41099 and has come down. A sustained rise above 41000 is needed to go up to 42000. Else the Dow can fall back to 39800 and even lower. Wait and watch.

DAX (22496.98, +0.32%) is holding higher. That keeps alive the chances of breaking above 22600 and target 23000-23500 on the upside. A fall below 22000 is needed to negate the bullish view.

Nifty (24334.20, -0.01%) has bounced well from the low of 24198. View remains bullish. A strong break above 24400 can take it up to 24700 and 25000. Any fall is likely to find support around 24000.

Nikkei (36875.83, +1.16%) is rising sharply on a weaker Yen, after the BOJ policy meeting yesterday where the interest rate was kept unchanged but the estimates for growth and inflation was lowered. The index is headed towards near term resistance at 37000. If that holds, we may expect a corrective dip towards 35000-34000 else a rise past 37000 would be strongly bullish for a rise towards 40000 in the medium term.

Shanghai (3279.03, -0.23%) has dipped. A re-test of 3250 looks possible before a slow rise back to 3300 is seen in the medium term.

Crude prices remain under pressure with Brent and WTI both showing bearish momentum, eyeing lower levels unless key resistances break. Gold has unexpectedly dropped below $ 3,300 and may extend fall towards $ 3,100, while Silver also weakens below $ 33, targeting $ 32. Copper continues its expected downtrend, with further downside potential. Natural Gas faces resistance near $ 3.50; if it holds, a fall to $ 3.00 is likely, but a breakout could lead to $ 4.00.

Brent ($ 62.36) saw a low of $ 59.30 yesterday before bouncing back to current levels. The near term looks bearish towards $ 58–$ 56 while below $ 64.

WTI ($ 59.13) has fallen well below expectations, testing a low of $ 56.39 before recovering to current levels. While below $ 62, a further decline towards $ 55–$ 54 can be seen in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 3,238.80) has broken below $ 3,300 contrary to expectations. It may extend the fall further towards $ 3,200–$ 3,100 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 32.70) did not see the expected rise; instead, it has fallen back below $ 33. A further drop towards $ 32.50–$ 32.00 may occur in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.6365) fell in line with expectations, reaching a low of $ 4.5240 before bouncing back. It may continue to decline towards $ 4.40–$ 4.20 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4510) is hovering near its immediate resistance. While this level holds, a fall towards $ 3.20–$ 3.00 appears likely in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break above $ 3.50 could pave the way for a rise towards $ 3.80–$ 4.00.

1:30 07:00 AU PPI
… Exp – … Expected 0.8% … Previous 0.8%

5:00 10:30 IN Manf PMI
… Exp 58.9 …Expected – … Previous 58.1

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
… Exp 47.8 …Expected 48.7 … Previous 48.9

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
… Exp – …Expected 48.7 … Previous 48.6

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
… Exp 6.1% … Expected 6.1% … Previous 6.1%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
… Exp 180K … Expected 129K … Previous 228K

12:30 18:00 US Unemp Rate
… Exp – … Expected 4.2% … Previous 4.2%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earn
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 0.16

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
0:30 06:00 AU\ Trade Balance
Exp – …Expected 3.1 …Previous 3.0

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
Exp 48.8 …Expected 48.5 …Previous 48.4

3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
Exp – …Expected 0.50 …Previous 0.50

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Exp 46.2 …Expected – …Previous 44.9

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
Exp – …Expected – …Previous 46.3

14:00 19:30 US Manf ISM
Exp 49.8 …Expected 48.0 …Previous 49.0