JAI HIND!

The Dollar Index if sustains above 100.50 can head towards 101-102 before getting peaked out. Euro if slips below 1.12, can be vulnerable to fall towards 1.11-1.10. EURINR and EURJPY are trading within 97-95 and 160-164/65 region respectively. USDJPY can head towards 146-147 in the near term. AUDUSD has risen past 0.64 again and if sustained can test 0.65. The USDCNY is coming off and while below 7.26, pair can be vulnerable to fall back towards 7.22-7.21. Pound is trading near the lower end of its range of 1.35-1.32. The USDINR is closed today.

Dollar Index (100.63) tested the high of 100.716 today as the talks between US and China on the trade war eased further, details awaited. While above 100.50, the rise can get extended to upper resistance between 101-102 region. Only if it fails to sustain its rise can get dragged into 100.50-99.0 range again.

EURUSD (1.1230) in the early morning tested the low of 1.1189 before rising back from there. A decisive break below 1.12 can extend the fall towards 1.11-1.10 in the coming sessions. A rise past 1.13 will be needed to negate the fall and keep the range of 1.12-1.14 intact for a while.

EURINR (95.0873) is trading near the lower end of its broad range of 97-95. Still, while the support near 95.00-94.70 region holds, the cross can eventually rise back higher. Only a confirm break below 95 can be bearish for the cross.

EURJPY (163.90) is rising higher within its 160-164/65 range. A decisive break on the either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

Dollar-Yen (145.87) is rising as anticipated and can soon test the resistance around 146-147 region before getting peaked out.

The resistance at 7.26 level seems to be holding well in USDCNY (7.2248) as it tested 7.2514 before coming down. While below 7.26, a fall back towards 7.22/21 can happen.

Aussie (0.6425) tested 0.6371 before recovering from there. Currently it is back above 0.64 and if sustained, can head towards 0.65 or higher. The downside can be limited to 0.635-0.630 for now.

Pound (1.3287) is trading lower within its broad range of 1.35-1.32 region. Any break below 1.32 if seen, can open the doors for 1.30 on the downside.

USDINR (85.3590) is closed today on the account of Buddha Purnima.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply, breaking above earlier expected resistance levels and could continue to move up in the near term. The German yields have also moved up sharply and could remain bullish for the next few sessions. The 10Yr GoI fell sharply from 6.45% on Friday and while that holds, a decline to 6.35/30% looks possible. Bullishness can come in on a break past 6.45% only. Till then a sideways range can be possible for the yield between 6.30-6.45%.

The US 10Yr (4.406%) and 30Yr (4.852%) Treasury yields continue to rise sharply as the US-China trade deal is finalized with the markets awaiting details. The yields can target 4.5%-4.55% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) soon.

The German 10Yr (2.553%) and 30Yr (3.049%) yields have also risen slightly breaking above the earlier mentioned resistance near 2.55% and 3% respectively. While the yields trade above these earlier resistances the yields can continue to move up towards 2.7% and 3.15% respectively.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3951%) needs to break above 6.45% to head towards the upper resistance at 6.50/55%. Else a dip back to 6.35/30% looks possible in the near term.

Dow Jones can witness a rise to 42000-42500 as the US-China trade deal eases further. Dax looks bullish towards 24000-24500. Nifty as anticipated tested 23936 on Friday before rising back from there. Overall, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 24500 in the coming sessions. Nikkei is likely to test 38000-38500 in the near term, while Shanghai can target 3400.

The Dow (41249.38, -0.29%) closed slightly lower last week but could have some scope to rise as the markets await the details of the US-China trade deal. The index has scope to rise towards 42000-42500 on the upside.

DAX (23499.32, +0.63%) rose sharply last week and closed higher at 23499.32. The near-term view is bullish for a rise to 24000-24500 if the index rises with constant upward momentum.

Nifty (24008, -1.10%) did test 23936 on Friday before closing above 24000. After the ceasefire announcement between India-Pak the index may attempt to rise in the near term targeting 24300-24500 and eventually move up towards 24500-25000 in the medium term.

Nikkei (37589.87, +0.23%) looks bullish towards 38000-38500 while above 37000.

Shanghai (3367.50, +0.76%) has finally picked up momentum over the last couple of sessions and could target 3400. Thereafter, we may expect a slight corrective dip to 3350-3300. A break past 3400 will negate the expected correction and indicate a fresh bullish signal.

Brent and WTI are trading just below resistance levels, likely to stay within their respective ranges of $ 65–$ 58 and $ 62–$ 55 until clearer signals emerge from US-China trade talks. Gold shows a bearish bias despite a slight recovery, with potential to decline towards $ 3,200–$ 3,100. Silver remains range-bound between $ 34–$ 32, while Copper, after a sharp fall, stays bearish below $ 4.70 with downside potential to $ 4.40–$ 4.20. Natural gas, having broken resistance, may rise further towards $ 4.00–$ 4.20 in the near term.

Brent ($ 64.14) is holding just below its immediate resistance. A detailed report on yesterday’s US-China trade deal discussions could provide more clarity on the price movement. Until then, a range of $ 65–$ 58 may persist for some time.

WTI ($ 61.26) is trading just below its immediate resistance. While this level holds, a range of $ 62–$ 55 is likely to remain intact for the near term.

Gold ($ 3,271.50) experienced a slight recovery on Monday, however, the overall bias remains bearish, with potential downside targets $ 3,200–$ 3,100 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 32.68) is expected to remain within the range of $ 34–$ 32 for some time, unless a breakout occurs on either side.

Copper ($ 4.6650) fell sharply in line with our expectations, testing a low of $ 4.4775 on Friday ahead of the US-China trade talks. It has since bounced back, but as long as the immediate resistance near $ 4.70 holds, the outlook remains bearish towards $ 4.40–$ 4.20.

Natural Gas ($ 3.7590) broke above its immediate resistance and tested a high of $ 3.81 on Friday. A further rise towards $ 4.00–$ 4.20 could occur in the near term.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY
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12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
… Exp – …Expected 24.5K … Previous -32.6k … Actual – 2.7K