The Dollar Index and Euro are moving as anticipated. If the ongoing movement persists in both then our targets of 100-99 and 1.13 respectively can be met soon. EURINR has risen and while above 95, it can extend to 96 as well. EURJPY continues to trade within 160-165 region. Only a decisive break past 165 can take it higher towards 166-167. USDJPY below 149, can get dragged towards 146-145 in the coming sessions. AUDUSD needs to rise past 0.65 to head towards 0.66 and higher. Else range of 0.635-0.650 can persist for a while. The USDCNY has risen again but upside could be capped at 7.23/24. Pound faces immediate resistance just above current levels. Need to see whether it hold or the rise extends further. The USDINR above 85 can rise towards86 in the near term.

Dollar Index (100.954) as anticipated is coming off and while below 102, the index can fall back towards 100-99 or even lower in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.1184) is rising line with our view and if sustained, can test 1.13 in the near term.

EURINR (95.1827) met our initial target of 95 yesterday. While the cross holds above 95, the rise can get extended to 96 as well.

EURJPY (164.65) tested the low of 164.13 before turning higher. The cross is unable to sustain its rise past 165 which will be needed to bring upper targets of 166-167 into picture. The immediate downside can be limited to 164-163.

Dollar-Yen (147.24) is declining as expected and while below 148.50-149.00, the pair can witness a fall back towards 146-145 in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (7.2150) witnessed a low of 7.1869 before recovering from there. The ongoing rise could be capped at the resistance coming around 7.23/24. The charts have enough room to fall towards 7.15 but a sustained break below 7.20 will be needed for it.

Aussie (0.6477) has risen well so far. Still, a strong rise past 0.65 will be needed to head towards 0.66 and higher. Else, it can continue to trade within 0.635-0.650 range.

Pound (1.3299) limited the fall to 1.3139 and started rising back. The pair faces an immediate resistance just above current levels. A break past the resistance can take it higher towards 1.34-1.35 again in the near term. Else, a fall towards 1.31 could be seen.

USDINR (85.0580) in line with our view, witnessed a lower opening at 84.63 before turning higher. While above 85, the pair can rise towards 86 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury and the German yields have risen sharply as expected. The US yields could face near term resistances above current levels which if holds can lead to a corrective fall in the near term while the German yields can continue to move higher. The 10Yr GoI fell below our expected 6.35% but could get some support at 6.30% from where a bounce can be expected. Failure to hold above 6.30% can make it vulnerable to test 6.25/20%.

The US 10Yr (4.481%) and 30Yr (4.918%) Treasury yields have continued to rally but could face immediate resistance near 4.55% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) soon from where a corrective dip looks possible towards 4.35% and 4.9/4.85% respectively in the medium term. Watch out for price action near the mentioned resistances.

The German 10Yr (2.682%) and 30Yr (3.152%) yields have continued to rally as expected and could target 2.8% and 3.20% respectively.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3289%) fell below our expected 6.35%. It would be important to see if 6.30% holds as immediate support and manages to push the yield back towards 6.35/40% in the coming days. Failure to bounce from 6.30% will be strongly bearish for the yield and make it vulnerable to fall towards 6.25/20%.

Dow Jones dipped after a lower-than-expected US CPI release for Apr-25, but while above 41500, the index can remain positive for an eventual rise to 43000+ levels. Dax has risen and could target 24000-24500 soon. Asian equities are trading lower. Nifty may see a bounce back towards 25000 after a sharp decline seen yesterday. Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped too. Nikkei can rise while above 37500/38000 to target 39000, while Shanghai can decline towards 3300 while below immediate resistance at 3400.

The Dow (42140.43, -0.64%) opened at a high of 42507.33 but fell sharply to close in the red at 42140.43 after the US CPI released at 2.33% for Apr-25, down from 2.41% seen in Mar-25 and lower than market expectations. The immediate correction could be limited to 41500-41000 in the near term, from where the index can again start to rally back towards 43000+ levels. Overall trend continues to look bullish.

DAX (23638.56, +0.31%) is rising as expected and looks bullish for the near term towards 24000-24500.

Nifty (24578.35, -1.39%) saw a corrective dip to 24547 in line with our expectation of seeing a dip to 24500 mentioned yesterday. The index could slowly move back towards 25000 in the coming days. Any further decline from current levels, if seen (less likely) can limit the downside at 24000.

Nikkei (37910.11, -0.72%) tested a high of 38325.88 but could not sustain and declined to 37910. While the index trades above 37500-38000, there is scope for a test of resistance at 39000 in the coming days.

Shanghai (3369.31, -0.16%) dipped as a majority of the defense company shares fell sharply following the ceasefire announcement between India and Pakistan. On the chart, there is crucial resistance at 3400 below which a correction can be expected towards 3300. A break past 3400 is needed for the index to see a fresh rise.

Brent and WTI have broken key resistance levels and look poised to rise towards $ 68–$ 70 and $ 64–$ 66 respectively, supported by easing US-China trade tensions and a weaker dollar boosting demand sentiment. Gold is holding above $ 3,200 with support at $ 3,150, suggesting a possible rebound to $ 3,300–$ 3,350. Silver remains range-bound between $ 34–$ 32. Copper has bounced unexpectedly but may stay within $ 4.80–$ 4.60 before eventually falling. Natural gas is under pressure, with support at $ 3.50–$ 3.40, and could range between $ 3.80–$ 3.40 before rising towards $ 4.00–$ 4.20.

Brent ($ 66.34) has risen above $ 65 and tested a high of $ 66.81 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 68–$ 70 looks likely in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 63.41) has broken above $ 62 and can rise further towards $ 64–$ 66 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,252.80) is holding above $ 3,200, with immediate support near $ 3,150. While this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 3,300–$ 3,350 is expected in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 32.97) remains range-bound between $ 34–$ 32 for now, unless a breakout occurs on either side.

Copper ($ 4.6965) has bounced back sharply from $ 4.60 to $ 4.72 yesterday, contrary to our expectations. While the immediate resistance at $ 4.80 holds, a range of $ 4.80–$ 4.60 could persist for some time before an eventual fall towards $ 4.40–$ 4.20.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6190) is falling, contrary to our expectations. The 21-day moving average support lies near $ 3.50–$ 3.40. While that holds, a range of $ 3.80–$ 3.40 could persist for some time before a rise towards $ 4.00–$ 4.20 in the coming weeks.

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
… Exp 1.45% … Expected 1.76% … Previous 2.05%

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
… Exp 4.5% … Expected 4.5% … Previous 4.4% … Actual 4.5%

10:30 16:00 IN CPI
… Exp 3.64 … Expected 3.27 … Previous 3.34 …Actual 3.16

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.3 … Previous -0.1 … Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.2%