The Dollar Index on a confirmed break below 100 can extend the fall to 99-96. Immediate upside is capped at 101.50-102.00. The Euro needs to break past 1.13 to rise further. Else it can be vulnerable to fall back. EURINR can trade within 96.5-95.0 region for now. EURJPY below 165 can fall towards 163.0-162.5. USDJPY is coming off as anticipated and can soon test 146-145 in the coming sessions. AUDUSD can trade within the range of 0.650-0.635 for a while. The USDCNY has risen well but upside could be capped at 7.23/24. Pound held the resistance near 1.3360 quite well and while below it, the fall can get extended to 1.31-1.30. The USDINR has the scope to rise towards 85.75-86.0 in the near term. IN Trade Balance, US PPI, Retail Sales, Philifed Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (100.89) yesterday tested the low of 100.27 before recovering a bit from there. Overall, the upside looks capped at 101.50-102.00. A decisive break below 100 if seen, can drag it further to 99 or even 96 as well.

EURUSD (1.1193) was expected to rise to 1/13 but it started coming off from 1.1265 itself. A confirmed break past 1.13 will be needed for the pair to turn bullish again. Else, while the resistance at 1.13 holds, pair can be vulnerable to fall back towards 1.11.

EURINR (95.5944) tested our target of 96 before cooling down. Now, a MA resistance is coming between 96.0-96.5 region, below which the cross can trade within 96.5-95.0 region. While above 95, bias remains positive to see a rise towards 97.0-97.5. Wait for a confirmed break past 96.5.

EURJPY (163.74) is coming off and while below 165, a test to 163.0-162.5 can happen. Only a sustained rise past 165 can bring targets of 166-167 into picture.

Dollar-Yen (146.28) is declining as anticipated and can soon test 146-145. Thereafter, whether the fall extends further or not will have to be seen.

USDCNY (7.2157) ongoing rise could be capped at the resistance coming around 7.23/24. The charts have enough room to fall towards 7.15 but a sustained break below 7.20 will be needed for it.

Aussie (0.6436) as feared, failed to rise past 0.65. While below it, the pair can trade within 0.650-0.635 range.

Pound (1.3273) halted the rise at 1.3359 and started coming down. If the fall persists, can get extended to 1.31 or slightly lower. A break past 1.3360 can only take it higher towards 1.34-1.35 again in the near term.

USDINR (85.3250) tested 85.51 before closing lower. We retain our view of seeing a rise towards 86.00-84.75. Overall, a broad range of 84.75-86.00 can persist for a while.

The US Treasury yields are coming close to their key resistance. They can gain momentum if they manage to break the upcoming resistance. That in turn will clear the way for more rise going forward. Else the yields can fall back again. The German yields continue to rise. The bullish view is intact, and the yields can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has declined below its key support. While it sustains lower, the outlook is bearish to see more fall.

The US 10Yr (4.54%) and 30Yr (4.97%) Treasury yields have risen well. Immediate resistance is at 4.55% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). The yields have to breach this hurdle to move up to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5.3% (30Yr). Else they can fall back to 4.4%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.7% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.70%) and 30Yr (3.14%) yields sustain higher. Bullish view is intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2855%) has declined below 6.3%. The outlook is bearish to see 6.2% and lower going forward.

Dow Jones and Dax have dipped but while above supports near 41800 and 23400/23300, view is bullish for a rise towards 43000+ and 24000-24500. Nifty has been stable and while above 24400/500, view is bullish for a rise to 25500/26000. Profit taking is seen on Nikkei and Shanghai. Both seem to be holding well below their interim resistances near 38500 and 3400. It would be important to see if the indices manage to break above these interim resistance levels and move higher. Else they can continue to decline in the near term.

The Dow (42051.06, -0.21%) has come down further. Support is at 41800 while above which the bias is positive to see a rise to 43000 and higher.

DAX (23527.01, -0.47%) has dipped slightly. Bullish view is intact to see 24000-24500 on the upside. Support is at 23400-23300.

Nifty (24666.90, +0.36%) remained stable. It has support at 24500-24400. While that holds, the outlook is bullish to see 25500-26000 on the upside.

Nikkei (37714.51, -1.08%) has declined further today as it could not break past 38500. There could be an interim support at 37500 which if holds can produce a bounce towards 38500-39000 again in the next 1-2 weeks. But in the medium term, while below the resistance at 39000, broader view could be bearish.

Shanghai (3388.01, -0.47%) opened at 3398, tested a high of 3402.87 before declining from there. We need to see if the index manages to hold below the 3400-resistance level and see further decline towards 3350-3300 in the coming days. Else a break past 3400, if seen and sustained, could be bullish for the medium term towards 3500-3600.

Crude prices have dipped due to rise in EIA crude inventories but are expected to rise in the near term before pulling back. Gold is testing support and may rebound unless it breaks below $ 3,150. Silver remains range-bound between $ 34–$ 32. Copper faces resistance and could fall further to $ 4.20. Natural Gas holds above support, likely staying in a $ 3.40–$ 3.80 range before a possible rise to $ 4.20.

Brent ($ 64.80) has dipped back as the weekly EIA crude inventories have increased. The outlook remains biased towards a rise to $ 68–$ 70 in the near term, before a pullback to the $ 60–$ 58 levels occurs.

WTI ($ 61.85) has dipped back below $ 62, but the view remains unchanged, with expectations of a rise towards $ 64–$ 66 in the near term, followed by a decline to the $ 58–$ 56 levels.

Gold ($ 3,179.20) has dipped to test its immediate support. While this support holds, we expect the price to bounce back towards $ 3,250–$ 3,300 in the coming weeks. Alternatively, a sustained break below $ 3,150, if it occurs, would turn the outlook bearish for gold, dragging it down to the $ 3,000–$ 2,900 levels. However, this scenario currently appears less likely.

Silver ($ 32.27) has dipped and remains range-bound between $ 34-$ 32 for now, unless a breakout occurs on either side.

Copper ($ 4.6240) has faced resistance and dropped as anticipated. A further decline towards $ 4.40–$ 4.20 looks likely in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4610) is holding above the mentioned support region. While it remains above this level, a range of $ 3.40–$ 3.80 could persist for some time before a rise to $ 4.00–$ 4.20 takes place.

1:30 07:00 AU Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 20.9K … Previous 32.2K

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
… Exp -20.9 … Expected -19.7 … Previous -20.8

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
… Exp 0.1% … Expected 1.7% … Previous 0.0%

10:00 15:30 EU Flash GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.4% … Previous 0.4%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -21.5

12:30 18:00 US PPI
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.2 … Previous -0.4

12:30 18:00 US Core PPI�
… Exp 0.1 … Expected 0.3 … Previous -0.1

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
… Exp 0.8% … Expected 0.0% … Previous 1.4%

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
… Exp 7.7 … Expected -9.9 …Previous -26.4

13:15 18:45 US Ind Prodn
… Exp -0.1% … Expected 0.2 … Previous -0.3

13:15 18:45 US Cap Util
… Exp 77.7% … Expected 77.9% … Previous 77.8%

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
6:30 12:00 IN WPI
… Exp 1.45% … Expected 1.76% … Previous 2.05% …Actual 0.85%