The Dollar Index has support near 100.50-100.00 region, a confirmed break below 100 can extend the fall to 99-96. Immediate upside is capped at 101.50-102.00. The Euro needs to break past 1.13 to rise further, else it can be vulnerable to fall back. EURINR is stuck within 96-95 region for now. EURJPY and USDJPY can soon test 162.5 and 145/44 respectively. Thereafter, whether the fall extends further or not will have to be seen. AUDUSD can trade within the range of 0.650-0.635 for a while. The USDCNY on a confirmed break below 7.20 can test 7.15 on the downside. The upside could be capped at 7.23/24. Pound has resistance just above current levels and while below it, the fall can get extended to 1.31. The USDINR tested 85.73 before cooling down. The fall can get extended to 85.25-85.00 levels in the near term.

Dollar Index (100.653) remained stable yesterday. An immediate support is coming around 100.50-100.00 region. A decisive break below it if seen, can drag it further to 99 or even 96 as well. The upside looks capped at 101.50-102.00.

EURUSD (1.1207) needs to see a break past 1.13 to turn bullish again. Else, while the resistance at 1.13 holds, pair can get dragged back towards 1.11.

EURINR (95.6948) is stuck within 96-95 region. Need to see a break on either side for further clarity. While above 95, bias remains positive to see a rise towards 97.0-97.5. Wait for a confirmed break past 96.0-96.5.

EURJPY (162.75) is coming off in line with our view and can soon test our target of 162.5. Thereafter, whether the fall extends further to 161-160 or bounces back from current levels will have to be seen. Overall, broad range of 165-160 is likely to persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (145.25) is nearing our target of 145. Note that 145-144 is a strong support region from where a bounce back towards 148 can happen. Only a confirmed break below 144 if seen, can open the doors for 140 on the downside. Watch price action closely around current levels.

USDCNY (7.2024) is slowly inching lower. Immediate upside could be limited to 7.23. A fall below 7.20 can take it towards the lower target of 7.15 in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6436) continues to trade within 0.650-0.635 range.

Pound (1.3309) has resistance just above current levels. A break past which can take it towards 1.34-1.35. Else, while the resistance holds, the target of 1.31 is kept alive.

USDINR (85.3970) observed a high of 85.73 before cooling down. The upside could be limited to resistance coming near 85.80-86.00 region and while below it, a pullback towards 85.25-85.00 is likely in the near term.

The US Treasury and the German yields have declined sharply. The resistance on the Treasury yields has held very well. They can fall more in the coming days. The German yields on the other hand have support near current levels. They have to sustain above this support to keep the bullish view alive. We will have to wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.42%) and 30Yr (4.88%) Treasury yields have declined sharply. The resistance at 4.55% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) has held very well. A test of 4.35%-4.3% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr) is possible now.

The German 10Yr (2.62%) and 30Yr (3.06%) yields have come down sharply. Immediate support is at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.05% (30Yr). That has to hold to keep our bullish view alive for seeing a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2742%) has come down further. The bearish view is intact to see 6.2% and lower levels on the downside.

Dow Jones holds well above support at 41800 and can continue to rise towards 43000. Dax is also bullish towards 24000-24500. Selling pressure is seen across the Asia-Pac equity indices (except Indian equities) as Nikkei and Shanghai continue to decline. The indices could get some support near 37500 and 3350 respectively. Nifty has risen well, entering above the 25000 level. While above 25000, an eventual rise to 25500-26000 could be seen in the coming weeks.

The Dow (42322.75, +0.65%) has held well above its support at 41800 and has risen back well. That keeps alive the positive bias to see 43000 and higher levels.

DAX (23695.59, +0.72%) has risen after testing its 23400-23300 support zone. Outlook remains bullish to see 24000-24500.

Nifty (25062.10, +1.60%) has surged and closed above 25000. The 24500-24400 support zone has held very well. That keeps intact our bullish view to see 25500-26000 on the upside.

Nikkei (37579.17, -0.47%) is declining as expected and could be headed towards interim support near 37500. Failure to bounce from this level could make it vulnerable to extend its decline towards 36000. Watch price action near 37500.

Shanghai (3370.75, -0.30%) may continue to trade within 3350-3400 for sometime while below immediate resistance at 3400. A decisive break above 3400 is needed to establish a fresh rise towards 3600.

Brent and WTI have weakened, slipping below key levels and are likely to trade in lower ranges for now. Gold bounced back after testing support at $ 3,123.30 and could rise towards $ 3,300–$ 3,350 if the support holds. Silver remains range-bound between $ 34–$ 32. Copper faces resistance and may decline towards $ 4.40–$ 4.20. Natural gas continues to fall and could test support near $ 3.10–$ 3.00 in the near term.

Brent ($ 64.62) has dipped further below $ 65, negating our earlier expectation of a rise towards $ 68–$ 70. It may decline further to $ 62–$ 60 and trade within a range of $ 66–$ 60 for some time until a breakout is seen on either side.

WTI ($ 61.19) is not moving upward as expected. A possible decline to $ 60–$ 58 could be seen, with the price likely to trade within a range of $ 64–$ 58 until further clarity emerges.

Gold ($ 3,230.30) tested its immediate support as the price sharply dropped to $ 3,123.30 before bouncing back and closing above $ 3,200 yesterday. As long as this support holds, an upward move towards $ 3,300–$ 3,350 is possible in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 32.70) can continue to trade within the range of $ 34–$ 32 until a breakout occurs on either side.

Copper ($ 4.6750) is trading just below its immediate resistance. While this holds, we retain our bearish view with a potential decline to $ 4.40–$ 4.20 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3520) continues to decline, and a further fall towards its immediate support near $ 3.10–$ 3.00 may be seen in the near term.

23:50 05:20 JP GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.1% … Previous0.6%

9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal
… Exp – … Expected 17.5 … Previous 21.0

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
… Exp 1378K … Expected 1370K … Previous 1324K

13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
… Exp – … Expected 44.2 … Previous 112.0

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
1:30 07:00 AU Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 20.9K … Previous 36.4K …Actual 89.0K

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
… Exp -20.9 … Expected -19.7 … Previous -21 …Actual -19.9

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
… Exp 0.1% … Expected 1.7% … Previous 1.1% …Actual 2.6%

10:00 15:30 EU Flash GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.4% … Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.3%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -21.5

12:30 18:00 US PPI
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.0 … Actual -0.5

12:30 18:00 US Core PPI�
… Exp 0.1 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.4 … Actual -0.4

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
… Exp 0.8% … Expected 0.0% … Previous 1.5% … Actual-0.1%

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
… Exp 7.7 … Expected -9.9 …Previous -26.4 … Actual – 4.0

13:15 18:45 US Ind Prodn
… Exp -0.1% … Expected 0.2 … Previous -0.2 … Actual 0.0

13:15 18:45 US Cap Util
… Exp 77.7% … Expected 77.9% … Previous 77.8% … Actual 77.7%