The Dollar Index and the Euro needs to see a break on the either side of their respective ranges of 102-100 and 1.11-1.13. EURINR has immediate resistance at 96, break past which will be needed to rise further. EURJPY and USDJPY can towards 161-160 and 145-144 respectively before rising back. AUDUSD can trade within the range of 0.650-0.635 for a while. The USDCNY has risen past 7.20 but can have immediate upside limited to 7.22/23. Pound above 1.31 can eventually rise past its current range of 1.34-1.32. The USDINR has a scope to test 86.00-86.10 before turning lower towards 85.

Dollar Index (100.976) & EURUSD (1.1184) are hovering within 102-100 region and 1.11-1.13 region since the last few sessions. A break on the either side of it will be needed for further directional clarity. Till then the respective ranges can remain intact.

EURINR (95.5792) is trading just below the resistance coming near 96 region. Watch price action closely to see whether it breaks past it and rises to 97.0-97.5 or continues to trade within 96-95 region.

EURJPY (162.20) is coming off since the last few sessions and if the fall continues, can get extended to 161-160. Overall, broad range of 165-160 is likely to persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (145.10) is nearing the strong support near 145-144 from where a bounce back towards 148 can happen. Only a confirmed break below 144 if seen, can open the doors for 140 on the downside.

USDCNY (7.2134) has risen past 7.20 again but immediate upside can be limited to 7.22/23. A fall below 7.20 if seen, can open the doors for 7.15.

Aussie (0.6409) is trading lower within its 0.650-0.635 range.

Pound (1.3294) has remained stable within 1.34-1.32 region for a while. A trend support is coming near 1.31 regio, above which the pair is likely to rise higher.

USDINR (85.4790) observed a high of 85.70 before cooling down. Going ahead, pair can attempt to extend the rise towards 86.00-86.10 before eventually turning lower towards 85 thereafter.

The US Treasury Yields are attempting to rise back. But they have to breach their immediate resistance to clear the way for more rise. Else they can fall back again. The German yields have come down. But supports are there to limit the downside. While the supports hold, the overall bullish view will continue to remain intact, and the yields can rise again. The 10Yr GoI continues to come down. The view remains bearish. The yield can fall more from here.

The US 10Yr (4.47%) and 30Yr (4.96%) Treasury yields are attempting to rise back. The yields have to breach the 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) resistance, to go further up to 4.8% and 5.10% respectively. Else they can fall back to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr). Wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.59%) and 30Yr (3.04%) yields have dipped further. But support is at 2.5% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr). While that holds, the yields can rise back and keep the bullish view intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) on the upside. We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2682%) continues to move down. That keeps intact our bearish view of seeing 6.2% and lower levels on the downside.

Dow Jones and Dax have risen well and look bullish targeting 43000+ and 24000 respectively. Asia-Pac indices seem to be taking a breather after rising sharply recently. Nifty could see a slight correction but while above 24600 it can target 25500-26000 in the medium term, while Nikkei and Shanghai trade lower and can test 37500 and 3350-3300 before bouncing back from there soon.

The Dow (42654.74, +0.78%) has risen sharply as expected and could be headed towards 43000, a break above which can take it further up towards 44000-45000 in the medium term.

DAX (23767.43, +0.30%) has also risen well but could face an interim resistance at 24000 in the near term which, if holds, can lead to a corrective dip to 23500-23000. A rise past 24000 will be necessary for a continued upmove targeting 25000. Watch price action near 24000.

Nifty (25019.80, -0.17%) dipped slightly on Friday, but while above support near 24600, the outlook is bullish to see 25500-26000 on the upside eventually.

Nikkei (37589.12, -0.44%) has dipped. It is to be seen if a bounce can take place from interim support at 37500 towards 38500-39000 again in the next 1-2 weeks. A break below 37500 would take it down towards 37000-36750.

Shanghai (3363.08, -0.13%) trades lower and could head towards 3350-3300 in the coming days. Overall immediate view is bearish while below 3400.

Crude prices remain under pressure, with Brent and WTI likely to trade in their respective $ 67–$ 60 and $ 64–$ 58 ranges. Gold is holding firm above support and may rise towards $ 3,300–$ 3,350, while Silver stays range-bound between $ 34–$ 32. Copper is retreating from resistance and could decline further to $ 4.20. Natural gas continues its bearish trend, eyeing support near $ 3.00.

Brent ($ 65.21) saw a slight recovery to $ 65.54 on Friday. While it remains below $ 67, a further decline towards $ 62–$ 60 is possible. It may continue to trade within the $ 67–$ 60 range until a breakout occurs on either side.

WTI ($ 61.31) can decline to $ 60–$ 58 in the near term and is likely to trade within the $ 64–$ 58 range until further clarity emerges.

Gold ($ 3,226.40) is holding above its immediate support. As long as it stays above this level, an upward move towards $ 3,300–$ 3,350 can be expected in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 32.56) remains range-bound between $ 34–$ 32 until a breakout occurs on either side.

Copper ($ 4.5815) is declining from its resistance as expected. A further drop towards $ 4.40–$ 4.20 is likely in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2470) continues to exhibit bearishness and may target its support near $ 3.10–$ 3.00 in the coming sessions.

2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
… Exp – … Expected 6.0 … Previous 5.9

2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
… Exp – … Expected 5.7 … Previous 7.7

9:00 14:30 EU Final CPI (YoY)
… Exp 2.2% … Expected 2.2% … Previous 2.2%

DATA FRIDAY
……………
23:50 05:20 JP GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.1% … Previous0.6% … Actual 0.2%

9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal
… Exp – … Expected 17.5 … Previous 22.7 …Actual 27.9

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
… Exp 1378K … Expected 1370K … Previous 1339K …Actual 1361K

13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
… Exp – … Expected 44.2 … Previous 112.0 …Actual 161.1