U.S. President Donald Trump once again ratcheted up his trade war by stating that the European Union be hit with 50% tariffs but extended the deadline to July 9 from June 1. The Dollar Index can fall towards 98-96, while the Euro can rise towards 1.15-1.16. EURINR has interim resistance at 97.50, need to see whether it holds or continues the rise further. EURJPYcan broadly remain within the 165-160 region. USDJPY can extend the fall to 142-140 in the coming sessions. AUDUSD and Pound on a break past 0.655 and 1.36 can extend the ongoing rise further. Failure to do so can initiate a corrective fall in the near term. The USDCNY can test the support near 7.15-7.125 before halting. The USDINR on the offshore is trading lower. The pair in the near term can extend the fall to 84.90/75 before turning higher towards 86.

Dollar Index (98.731) has slipped below 99 after the news came out on Friday that Trump will impose 50% tariffs on the European Union. Now, while the fall sustains, it can get extended to 98-96 before halting.

EURUSD (1.14172) limited the fall to 1.1274 itself and started rising. Trump delayed the tariffs deadline talks to July 9 dipped slightly yesterday. Overall, while above 1.13, the view remains bullish towards 1.15-1.16 in the near term.

EURINR (97.0092) is holding well below the interim resistance near 97.50 level. A break past it will be needed towards 98-99, else a corrective dip to 96 can be seen before the cross starts ascending higher.

EURJPY (162.40) is trading lower within its broad range of 165-161/60. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

Dollar-Yen (142.28) is coming off as anticipated and can soon test 142-140 before possibly halting.

USDCNY (7.2032) is headed towards the support near 7.15-7.125 which can be tested soon in the near term before attempting to rise back higher. .

Aussie (0.6529) Aussie has broken above its 0.635–0.650 range. A decisive break above 0.655 can bring 0.66-0.67 into picture. Failure to hold above 0.65 may pull it back into the 0.635–0.650 range.

Pound (1.3590) is near our mentioned target at 1.36. A break above can target 1.40/41, while a reversal from here may drag it back to 1.34 or lower. Watch price action closely.

USDINR (85.0030) on the offshore is trading near 85 region. There could be some scope for the pair to see a dip towards 84.90/75 in the near term before eventually ascending towards 86 thereafter.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower. The immediate outlook is mixed. The yields can go either way from here. We will have to wait and watch the movement over the next few days to get clarity. The German Yields have risen. The view remains bullish. The yields have room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI remains lower and is oscillating in a narrow range. The view is bearish. We expect the yield to fall in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.51%) and 30Yr (5.03%) Treasury yields remain lower. The immediate outlook is slightly mixed. The yields have equal chances either for a fall to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) or rise to 4.6% (10Yr) and 5.1% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.56%) and 30Yr (3.08%) yields have risen further. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) going forward.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2520%) remains stable around 6.25%. The bias is negative to see a fall to 6.2% and lower. Any rise from here will be capped at 6.3%-6.35%.

The Dow fell sharply on Friday after Trump’s warning of a 25% tariff to Apple for iPhones sold in the US not made in the US and recommendation of a 50% tariff to the EU starting 1st June. But the Dow could rise today on delay of the recommended tariff to EU to 9th July 2025. Dow can rise towards 42500 while above support at 41000. Dax, Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai can rise in the near term towards 24000, 25000-25200, 38000/39000 and 3400 respectively while above their near term supports at 23000, 24000, 37000 and 3340.

The Dow (41603.07, -0.61%) fell further on Friday as Trump recommended a 50% tariff imposition on the EU starting 1st June and warned Apple of a tariff of at least 25% if the iPhones sold in the US are not made in the US. Now the expected tariff on the EU has been delayed to 9th July 2025 which could possibly give a breather to the markets and lead to a slight rally today. While above immediate support at 41000, there is scope for a rise towards 42500 in the coming days.

DAX (23629.58, -1.54%) dipped to test 23247.85 on Friday but managed to close higher. While above 23000, there is scope for a rise to 24000. A break below 23000, if seen can drag it lower towards 22500-22000 in the medium term.

Nifty (24853.15, +0.99%) rose back to 24853 after an initial decline below 24500 on Thursday last week. While above 24000, there is scope for the Nifty to rise back towards 25000-25200.

Nikkei (37371.18, +0.57%) is trading higher and while above 37000, a slow rise towards 38000-39000 in the coming 1-2 weeks can be expected.

Shanghai (3360.76, +0.37%) has risen today and while above 3340, the index is likely to rise towards 3400.

Crude prices are rebounding from recent lows, with Brent likely to stay between $ 67–$ 63 and WTI between $ 64–$ 60 unless a breakout occurs. Gold is trending higher, aiming for $ 3,400–$ 3,450, while Silver needs to break above $ 34 to target $ 35–$ 36, otherwise it may consolidate. Copper remains bullish following a surge to $ 4.89, supported by global supply concerns and tariff tensions, with potential for $ 5.0–$ 5.1. Natural gas is moving up as expected, targeting $ 3.8–$ 4.0 soon.

Brent ($ 64.14) has seen a bounce back from $ 63.32 on Friday. A sustained break below $ 63 is needed for it to move further down towards $ 60–$ 58. Otherwise, it can range between $ 67–$ 63 for some time.

WTI ($ 61.71) has seen a bounce back after testing a low of $ 60.02 on Friday. A range of $ 60–$ 64 could hold for some time until a breakout on either side of the range takes place.

Gold ($ 3,344.10) is moving up in line with expectations and can target $ 3,400–$ 3,450 on the higher side in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 33.68) has seen a bounce from $ 33 on Friday. It needs to surpass $ 34 to be bullish towards $ 35–$ 36; otherwise, it can remain in the range of $ 34–$ 32 for some time.

Copper ($ 4.8815) has indeed broken above $ 4.7 and surged to a high of $ 4.89 on Friday as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a projected 30% shortfall in global copper supply by 2035 if corrective actions are not taken, along with the tariff tensions with China as they control 70% of refining capacity for key minerals. The price looks further bullish towards $ 5.0–$ 5.1 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.7370) is moving up as anticipated and can target expected levels of $ 3.8–$ 4.0 in the near term.

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
… Exp 94.5 … Expected – … Previous 93.6

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
… Exp -0.5% … Expected – … Previous 9.2%

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 4.5%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 87.1 … Expected – … Previous 86.0

DATA FRIDAY
……………
23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
… Exp -25 … Expected -22 … Previous -23 …Actual

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
… Exp 3.4 … Expected 3.5 … Previous 3.6 …Actual

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
… Exp 748K … Expected 696K … Previous 724K …Actual