The Court of International Trade on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump’s tariffs from going into effect. As a result, The Dollar Index rose to 100.54, and the Euro slipped to 1.1210. A decisive break above 100.50 could lift the Index to 101-102. The Euro may fall to 1.11-1.10 if it breaks below 1.12. Immediate bounce towards 1.14 will be needed to negate the fall. EURINR above 96 can trade within 96-97 region. Deeper support at 95. EURJPY is trading higher within the 160-165 region. USDJPY, if sustained, can test the upper resistance at 147-148 before eventually coming down. AUDUSD is declining within the 0.650-0.635 range and the Pound is nearing the support near 1.34 region. The USDCNY failed to rise past 7.21 and while below it, can get dragged towards 7.175-7.150. The USDINR has risen as anticipated. Now whether it moves within the 85.75-84.75 region or breaks past 86 will have to be seen. US GDP data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (100.307) rose sharply to the level of 100.54 after the tariffs got blocked by the US court. A break past 100.50 if seen, can take it to the upper resistance near 101-102. For now, the targets of 98-96 are kept open until further clarity.

EURUSD (1.1402) slipped to the low of 1.1210 before recovering a bit from there. While above 1.12, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 1.14. Only a decisive break below 1.12 if seen, can open the doors for 1.11-1.10 on the downside.

EURINR (96.2198) as cautioned, the cross tested our target near 95.9260 before rising a bit. While above 96, a narrow range of 96-97 can hold for a while. If the cross fails to sustain above 96, can get dragged to the deeper support at 95 before halting.

EURJPY (163.89) is rising within the range of 160-165 and can test the upper end of it soon. Thereafter, a decisive break will be needed for further clarity. Until then, the range can persist.

Dollar-Yen (145.66) rose past 145 to the level of 146.29 before declining a bit. If the ongoing rise sustains, a test to 147-148 can happen before eventually turning lower again.

USDCNY (7.1971) started coming off from 7.2097 itself. While below 7.21, the pair can be vulnerable to get dragged towards 7.175-7.150 levels.

Aussie (0.6420) is trading lower within 0.650–0.635 range, which is likely to persist for a while.

Pound (1.3439) is nearing the support near 1.34 region. While it holds, a rise back towards 1.36 or higher can happen. On the contrary, a break below 1.34 if seen can make it vulnerable to fall towards 1.32-1.31. For now, a bounce back from 1.34 is anticipated.

USDINR (85.3670) further tested 85.7075 before closing lower. We will have to see whether it trades within 85.75-84.75 region or extends its rise past 86.

The US Treasury Yields have bounced. A strong follow-through rise from here can take the yields higher going forward. The US PCE data release tomorrow is going to be very important. A higher PCE number will be positive for the yields. We will have to wait and see. The German yields have risen back as expected. The outlook remains bullish, and the yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. The bearish outlook is intact, and the yield has room to fall more.

The US 10Yr (4.50%) and 30Yr (4.98%) Treasury yields are attempting to rise back. A follow-through rise is needed to move higher. The 30Yr has to breach 5.05% to move up to 5.2%. The 10Yr has to sustain above 4.45% for a rise to 4.6%-4.65%.

The German 10Yr (2.56%) and 30Yr (3.03%) yields have bounced back as expected. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2383%) has dipped slightly and is likely to test 6.2% and lower levels going forward. Resistance is in the 6.3%-6.35% region.

The Dow and Dax fell contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise, after a cautious FED minutes and concerns over the US inflation and economic growth. Dow can trade within 41000-43000 while Dax can dip further to 23500-23000 on a break below 24000. Nifty continues it’s fall and could test 24500-24300. Nikkei is up on sharp decline in the Japan yields and weakness in Yen and could face resistance anywhere between current levels and 39000 from where a rejection is possible. Shanghai can trade within 3340-3400 region for sometime. Only a break below 3340 would be bearish to 3300 or lower in the medium term.

The Dow (42098.70, -0.58%) fell contrary to our expectations of a rise to 42500-43000 after a cautious FED minutes. While above 41k, we may expect a rise back to 43k soon with a trade range of 41k-43k to hold for the near term.

DAX (24038.19, -0.78%) has also fallen contrary to our expectations of a rise towards 25000-25200. If it breaks below 24000 and sustains lower, it can fall further to 23500-23000 in the coming days.

Nifty (24752.45, -0.30%) has fallen as expected and could test 24500-24300 on the downside before attempting to rise back again in the medium term towards 25k.

Nikkei (38350.22, +1.66%) has risen sharply as expected, entering into the 38000-39000 zone on sharp decline in Japanese yields and weakness in the Yen. A decline from anywhere between current levels and 39000 can be possible which can lead to a medium term dip towards 37000-36000. Only a break past 39k will be bullish in the longer run.

Shanghai (3355.88, +0.48%) continues to trade within the 3340-3400 region for the near term. Failure to hold trade above 3340 in the near term can be bearish to 3300 or lower.

Crude prices have risen on concerns over potential US sanctions on Russian exports due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, while Gold remains bullish despite a slight dip. Silver holds steady but needs to break above $ 34 for further gains. Copper has seen a fall but support is holding, with a potential move to $ 4.8–$ 5.0. Natural gas has plunged but are likely to rebound unless a sustained drop below $ 3.5 occurs.

Brent ($ 65.68) has risen on fears of the US ramping up sanctions on Russian crude exports, as Russian President Putin refuses to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine. A range of $ 67–$ 63 could hold until a decisive breakout occurs.

WTI ($ 62.65) has risen, and a range of $ 64–$ 60 could hold for some time.

Gold ($ 3,286.80) has dipped, but the outlook remains bullish, targeting $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 33.25) is holding above $ 33 but needs to surpass $ 34 to confirm a bullish move towards $ 35–$ 36. Otherwise, it remains vulnerable for a decline towards $ 32.

Copper ($ 4.6910) has fallen again and is currently holding at its immediate support. We expect the support to hold and push the price higher towards $ 4.8–$ 5.0 in the coming weeks. Alternatively, a break below could turn bearish, targeting $ 4.5–$ 4.3 on the downside.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5550) plunged to a low of $ 3.5350 yesterday, as fund liquidation weighed on prices ahead of the expiration of the June natural gas contract. While $ 3.5 holds, we expect a rebound towards $ 3.8–$ 4.0 in the near term. However, a sustained break below $ 3.5 could drag prices lower towards $ 3.2–$ 3.0, which currently seems less likely.

12:30 18:00 US GDP
… – … Expected -0.3% … Previous -0.3%

DATA Yesterday
……………
10:30 16:00 IN IIP
… 4.2% … Expected 3.3% … Previous 3.1% …Actual 2.7%