The Dollar Index fell to 99.21 after a federal court reinstated most tariffs. For now, while below 101-100, a fall to 98-96 looks likely to happen. The Euro has risen past 1.13 again and if sustained can head towards 1.15-1.16 levels. EURINR needs to break past 97 to head towards 98-99 levels. Till then, the range of 96-97 can persist. EURJPY continues to trade within the 165-160 region. USDJPY has been coming off and can fall towards 142 or even 140 before halting. AUDUSD is declining within the 0.650-0.635 range and the Pound is headed towards 1.36 again. The USDCNY below 7.21, can get dragged towards 7.175-7.150. The USDINR can dip within its 85.75-84.75 range. US Personal Income and US PCE data releases are scheduled today.

A federal court reinstated President Trump’s most extensive tariffs, which created confusion and uncertainty in the markets. As a result, Dollar Index (100.307) slipped sharply to the low of 99.217. While below 101-100, fall can get extended to 98-96 before halting.

EURUSD (1.1354) has risen past 1.13 again. While the pair trades above 1.13, a rise towards 1.15-1.16 looks likely to happen. A break past 1.14 will confirm it.

EURINR (96.9560) is trading near 97 region, decisive break past which can bring 98-99 into picture. Else, it can continue to move within the 97-96 region for the next few sessions.

EURJPY (163.89) was expected to test 165 but it declined from the 164.26 level itself. Overall, the range of 165-162/60 is likely to persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (143.88) was expected to test 147/48 before coming down, instead it turned lower from 146.29 itself. Immediate support is coming at 142 and deeper at 140 which can be tested in the near term if the fall continues further.

USDCNY (7.1863) is declining as anticipated and while below 7.21, the pair can be vulnerable to extend the fall towards 7.175-7.150 levels.

Aussie (0.6424) is trading lower within 0.650–0.635 range, which is likely to persist for a while.

Pound (1.3473) tested the support near 1.34 region before bouncing back a little. The pair is headed back towards the crucial resistance near 1.36 which can be tested soon in the near term. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further or a corrective fall is witnessed will have to be seen.

USDINR (85.3640) seems to be holding the range of 85.75-84.75 quite well for now as a test to 85.6150 was seen yesterday before it came down. A further dip within the range is possible. Only a rise past 85.75 can open the doors for 86.00-86.10.

The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply. There is a support near current levels which if broken can drag the yields further lower in the coming days. The US PCE data release today will be important to watch. A lower PCE number can drag the yields below their support. The German Yields have declined sharply contrary to our expectation. They have to hold above their immediate support to keep alive our bullish view. The price action in the next few days is going to be important. The 10Yr GoI remains lower and stable. The view remains bearish to see more fall from here.

The US 10Yr (4.42%) and 30Yr (4.92%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) are key support which has to hold to avoid a deeper fall to 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.50%) and 30Yr (2.98%) yields have come down contrary to our expectation. They can test 2.45% and 2.9% respectively and have to bounce back from there to keep the bullish view intact of seeing 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) on the upside. Else the bullish view could go wrong.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2511%) continues to remain stable around 6.25%. We retain our bearish view of seeing 6.2% and lower levels on the downside. Resistance in the 6.3%-6.35% region can cap the upside.

The Dow has risen and brings back our earlier target of 42500-43000 into the picture. Dax broke below 24000 to test 23917, and while it sustains lower, it can fall to 23500-23000. Nifty can rise to 25000-25100 while above 24500/800. Nikkei declined from 38454, and while the fall continues, a test of 37000 is possible. A broad trade range of 38500-37000 can hold for the near term. Shanghai has dipped to the lower end of the 3340-3400 range, and if it breaks lower, it would open up vulnerability for a fall towards 3300.

The Dow (42215.73, +0.28%) has risen, bringing back our earlier targets of 42500-43000 into focus. Overall, a broad trade range of 41k-43k may hold for the near term.

DAX (23933.23, -0.44%) broke below 24000 to test a low of 23917 before closing at 23933. It would be crucial to see if the index manages to rise back above 24k immediately, which could bring back the higher targets of 25000/25200 into the picture. Else, while below 24k, the view is bearish towards 23500-23000 in the coming days.

Nifty (24833.60, +0.33%) tested 24677 but managed to close above 24800. While above 24500, there can be a chance of a rise to 25000-25100 in the near term.

Nikkei (37912.05, -1.36%) tested a high of 38454 yesterday but has declined sharply as expected. The 38500-39000 is a resistance zone below which there is scope for a fall to 37000 or lower in the medium term.

Shanghai (3342.88, -0.61%) has dipped to the lower end of the 3400-3340 region mentioned yesterday. Failure to hold trade above 3340 in the near term can be bearish to 3300.

Crude prices tested higher levels but pulled back amid OPEC+ production concerns and could remain range bound for some time. Gold continues its bullish momentum towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450. Silver holds above $ 33 but needs a break above $ 34 to advance further. Copper is showing strength and may target $ 4.80–$ 5.00 unless support breaks. Natural gas has recovered from a dip and could move higher if it sustains above $ 3.50.

Brent ($ 63.16) tested a high of $ 66.13 and fell back to $ 63.79 due to concerns of OPEC+ potentially increasing crude production for July. While it holds above $ 63, a range of $ 63–$ 67 could persist for some time.

WTI ($ 60.70) rose to $ 63.07 but fell back sharply, closing near $ 60.97, yesterday. While above $ 60, a range of $ 60–$ 64 could hold for some time.

Gold ($ 3,334.10) has rebounded as anticipated and appears bullish towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 33.30) has bounced back from a low of $ 32.80 yesterday. A sustained break above $ 34 is needed to push it towards $ 35–$ 36. Otherwise, a narrow range of $ 34–$ 33 could persist for some time.

Copper ($ 4.6650) is holding above its immediate support and could rise towards $ 4.80–$ 5.00 in the coming weeks. Alternatively, a break below support could trigger a bearish move towards $ 4.50–$ 4.30.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5469) dipped to $ 3.43 but bounced back to close above $ 3.50 yesterday. Only a sustained break below $ 3.50 would confirm further bearishness towards $ 3.20–$ 3.00. Otherwise, it could move higher towards $ 3.70–$ 3.80.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
… – … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.5%

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
… – … Expected 6.7% … Previous 6.2%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
… 0.1% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.5%

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
… 0.2% … Expected – … Previous

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
… 0.2% … Expected – … Previous –

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
… – … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.4%

DATA Yesterday
……………
12:30 18:00 US GDP
… – … Expected -0.3% … Previous -0.3% …Actual -0.2%