The Dollar Index below 101-100 can fall to 98-96. The Euro on a break past 1.14 can ascend towards 1.15-1.16 levels. EURINR needs to sustain 97 to test 98-99 levels. EURJPY continues to trade within the 165-160 region. USDJPY has been coming off and can fall towards 142 or even 140 before halting. AUDUSD and Pound are trading within the range of 0.6550-0.6400/635 and 1.36-1.34 respectively. The USDCNY needs to see a break past 7.2250 to negate the fall to 7.17/15. A break below 7.19 can confirm the anticipated fall. The USDINR can hold the range of 855-86 for a while. IN Manufacturing PMI and US ISM Manufacturing data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (100.307) on a decisive break below 99 can extend the fall to 98-96 before halting. Overall, the view remains bearish below 100-101.

EURUSD (1.1371) has been rising gradually for a while. A break past 1.14 can open the doors for 1.15-1.16 in the near term. Failure to rise past 1.14 can make the pair trade within 1.14-1.13/1.1250 region.

EURINR (97.2476) has risen past 97 and if sustained, can head towards 98-99 as well. Else, it can continue to trade within the 97.50-96.00 region.

EURJPY (163.89) declined a bit within its 165-162/60 range. A confirmed break on either side will be needed for further clarity. Till then, range can persist.

Dollar-Yen (143.53) is likely to extend the fall to either 142 or even 140 before attempting to rise back higher. Immediate upside looks capped at 145.

USDCNY (7.1986) is stuck within 7.18-7.20 region. There is enough room in the charts for the pair to decline towards 7.17-7.15 as well but a break below 7.19 will be needed for it. A strong break past 7.2250 will be needed to negate the anticipated fall.

Aussie (0.6457) continued to hold the range of 0.6550–0.6400/635 range, which is likely to persist for a while.

Pound (1.3473) has been moving within the 1.36-1.34 region since the last few sessions. A strong break past 1.36 will be needed to maintain the bullish trend. Else, an initial fall to 1.32 can be witnessed before the pair starts rising higher. Will have to wait and watch to see which way the pair heads moving further.

USDINR (85.4830) is likely to remain ranged within the 85-86 region for a while before eventually ascending higher.

The US Treasury Yields fell on Friday but has bounced back slightly in the early Asian session today. They have to get a strong follow-through rise above the immediate resistance in order to move higher. Else there are good chances to see more fall this week. The German Yields remain lower. They have room on the downside to test their support. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if they are bouncing back or not. The 10Yr GoI has risen back sharply. But resistance ahead can cap the upside and keep the broader downtrend intact.

The US 10Yr (4.42%) and 30Yr (4.96%) Treasury yields have bounced in the early Asian session today after Friday’s fall. A strong rise above 4.45% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) is needed to move up to 4.6% and 5.1%-5.2% respectively. Else they can fall back and break the support at 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) and fall to 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.50%) and 30Yr (2.98%) yields remain lower and stable. They can dip to 2.45%-2.4% (10Yr) and 2.9% (30Yr) from here. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if they are bouncing back or not.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2882%) has risen sharply. But 6.3%-6.35% can cap the upside. The broader trend is down, and the yield can fall to 6.2% and lower eventually.

The Dow is headed towards 42500-43000 within a broad trade range of 41000-43000 while Dax needs to sustain trade above 24000 to move higher towards 25000 else can fall to 23500-23000 region. Nifty can trade within 24400-25100 while above support at 24500/400. Nikkei could trade with a bearish bias while below 38000 and could have fair scope for a decline towards 36500-36000 soon. Shanghai is likely to continue trading between the 3400-3340 region for the near term.

The Dow (42270.07, +0.13%) is rising and could move towards our target of 42500-43000 keeping the expected broad trade range of 41k-43k intact.

DAX (23997.48, +0.27%) has closed around the crucial 24000 figure after a rise to 24181 seen on Friday. If the index falls below 24000, there can be a chance of testing 23500-23000 in the coming days. Only a sustained rise above 24000 can be bullish towards 25000 in the medium term.

Nifty (24750.70,-0.33%) closed lower on Friday but as long as the support at 24500/24400 holds, we may expect the sideways consolidation between 24400-25100 region to continue with a possibility of an upside breakout in the medium term.

Nikkei (37439.26, -1.39%) has fallen sharply. Near term upside could be limited to resistance at 38000 below which the index can fall towards 36500-36000 in the coming days.

Shanghai (3347.49, -0.47, -0.61%) is likely to continue trading between the 3400-3340 region for the near term. Failure to hold trade above 3340 can be bearish to 3300.

Crude prices dropped last week on OPEC+ production fears, though both are rebounding with resistance levels near $ 66 and $ 64, respectively, below which further declines are possible. Gold faces strong resistance around $ 3,350, potentially pulling it down to $ 3,250–$ 3,200 unless it breaks higher. Silver remains weak below $ 34, likely trading between $ 34 and $ 32. Copper surged today with a near-term target of $ 4.9–$ 5.0. Natural Gas is holding above $ 3.5 with resistance at $ 3.6–$ 3.7, and a potential fall towards $ 3.4–$ 3.3 if resistance holds.

Brent ($ 64.20) fears of a significant OPEC+ production hike weighed on the price, bringing it down to $ 62.09 on Friday. It is climbing back now, but while it remains below $ 66, it stays vulnerable to a further decline towards $ 60–$ 58 in the near term.

WTI ($ 62.34) fell to a low of $ 59.74 on Friday and has recovered above $ 62 today. As long as it remains below $ 64, it can be bearish towards $ 58–$ 56 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,326.60) is struggling to break above $ 3,350, with immediate resistance seen around that level. While this resistance holds, a drop to $ 3,250–$ 3,200 may occur in the near term. A break above $ 3,350 is needed for the price to move higher towards $ 3,400–$ 3,500.

Silver ($ 33.12) remains weak below $ 34. A range of $ 34–$ 32 could hold for some time.

Copper ($ 4.8090) closed lower at $ 4.6775 on Friday but, as expected, has surged today and reached a high of $ 4.8370 so far. A further rise towards $ 4.9–$ 5.0 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5180) closed lower at $ 3.44 on Friday and is currently trading above $ 3.5. Immediate resistance can be seen near $ 3.6–$ 3.7. While that resistance holds, the price may decline towards $ 3.4–$ 3.3 in the near term.

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
… 49.3 … Expected – … Previous 48.7

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
… 57.9 … Expected- … Previous 58.2

5:45 11:15 CH GDP
… – … Expected- … Previous 0.2%

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
… 45.4 … Expected- … Previous 45.8

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
… – … Expected- … Previous 49.0

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
… 47.6 … Expected- … Previous 45.4

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
… – … Expected- … Previous 45.3

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
… 48.4 … Expected- … Previous 48.7

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… 51.8 … Expected- … Previous 50.4

DATA Yesterday
……………
23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
… – … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.5% …Actual 2.5

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
… – … Expected 6.7% … Previous 6.2% …Actual

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
… 0.1% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.5% …Actual 0.8

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
… 0.2% … Expected – … Previous …Actual 0.1

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
… 0.2% … Expected – … Previous – …Actual 0.1

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
… – … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.1