The Dollar Index is coming off as anticipated and can head towards the target of 98-96. The Euro and EURINR have risen past 1.14 and 97.50 respectively and if sustained can ascend towards 1.15-1.16 and 98-99 levels. EURJPY continues to trade within the 160-165 region. USDJPY has been coming off and while below 145, can fall towards 142 or even 140 before halting. AUDUSD and Pound are trading within the range of 0.6550-0.6400/635 and 1.34-1.36 respectively. The USDCNY needs to see a break past 7.2250 to negate the fall to 7.17/15. The USDINR can continue to hold the range of 85-86 for a while.

Lower than expected US Manufacturing ISM at 48.5 (49.3) led Dollar Index (100.307) to slip to the level of 98.583 before recovering a bit. A further extension of the ongoing fall to 98-96 could happen before halting. Overall, the view remains bearish below 100-101.

EURUSD (1.1426) has risen past 1.14 and now it needs to sustain above it to head towards 1.15-1.16 in the near term. Failure to sustain above 1.14 can make the pair trade within 1.14-1.13/1.1250 region. For now, the view remains bullish.

EURINR (97.6208) is ascending higher and if sustained, can test 98-99 as well.

EURJPY (163.517) needs a confirmed break on either side of its 165-162/60 range for further clarity. Till then, range can persist.

Dollar-Yen (143.07) in line with our bearish view, tested 142.38 on the downside before recovering from there. Still, while it trades below 144/45 the fall is likely to get extended towards 142 or even 140 before halting.

USDCNY (7.1986) was closed yesterday. The immediate outlook appears indecisive at the moment but while the pair trades below 7.20/22, there is a scope for it to fall towards 7.18 or towards the deeper support at 7.15. Only a strong break past 7.22/2250 can negate the anticipated fall.

Aussie (0.6471) is rising within its range of 0.6400/635-0.6550. While the resistance near 0.6550 holds, the pair can continue to hold the range.

Pound (1.3525) is nearing the upper end of its immediate range of 1.34-1.36. Thereafter, a strong break past 1.36 will be needed to maintain the bullish trend. Else, an initial fall to 1.32 can be witnessed before the pair starts rising higher.

USDINR (85.4130) is holding the immediate range of 85.75-85.25 quite well and broadly it is anticipated to trade within the 85-86 region for a while before eventually ascending higher.

The US Treasury Yields have bounced well. But a sustained break above the immediate resistance is needed to move up further and avoid falling back. We will have to wait and see. The German yields have bounced slightly. But resistance ahead can cap the upside and keep them vulnerable for a fall in the near term. The 10Yr GoI has dipped slightly. The resistance is holding well as expected. The bearish view remains intact to see more fall.

The US 10Yr (4.43%) and 30Yr (4.95%) Treasury yields have bounced well yesterday. But a sustained rise above 4.47% (10Yr) and 5% (30yr) is needed for a rise to 4.6% (10Yr) and 5.1%-5.2% (30Yr). Else the yields will remain vulnerable to break 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) and fall to 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and 30Yr (3.01%) yields have inched up. But the upside is likely to be capped at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr). The chances are high to see a fall to 2.45%-2.4% (10Yr) and 2.9% (30Yr). We have to see if a bounce is happening after that or not.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2664%) has dipped slightly. The yield is holding below 6.3%. We retain our bearish view of seeing a fall to 6.2% and lower. 6.3%-6.35% will continue to act as a strong resistance zone.

Most indices are trading within a range which could continue for the near term. The Dow is headed towards resistance at 42500-43000 within a broad trade range of 41000-43000 while Dax also trades below resistance of 24000 and can fall to 23500-23000 region. Nifty can trade within 24400-25100 while above support at 24500/400. Nikkei could trade with a bearish bias while below 38000/38500 with very near term downside limited to 37000. Shanghai is likely to continue trading between the 3400-3340 region for the near term.

The Dow (42305.48, +0.084%) has risen slightly and is headed towards the near term resistance of 42500-43000 from where a rejection can be possible towards 41000. Only a break past 43000 will bring in fresh bullishness. Till then the trade range of 41k-43k is intact.

DAX (23930.67, -0.28%) has dipped as the resistance near 24000-24200 is holding well for now. A futher decline to 23500-23000 looks possible in the coming days.

Nifty (24716.60,-0.14%) dipped yesterday but above support at 24500/24400, we may expect the sideways consolidation between 24400-25100 region to continue with a possibility of an upside breakout in the medium term.

Nikkei (37729.45, +0.69%) has risen slightly yesterday. We may expect a consolidation between 38000-38500 and 37000 region for sometime before falling further towards 36500 eventually.

Shanghai (3354.15, -0.47, +0.20%) has risen slightly but could continue to range within 3400-3340 for the near term.

Crude prices tested resistance but may decline if levels of $ 66 (Brent) and $ 64 (WTI) hold. Gold continues to strengthen above resistance, targeting $ 3,450–$ 3,500. Silver has surged unexpectedly and may rise further to $ 36. Copper remains bullish with potential to hit $ 5.10, while Natural Gas must sustain above $ 3.70 to extend gains toward $ 4.10 amid hotter US weather forecasts.

Brent ($ 65.08) surged to test $ 65.76 and closed slightly lower at $ 64.63 yesterday. While it remains below $ 66, we retain our view of a possible decline towards $ 62–$ 60 in the near term.

WTI ($ 63.01) rose to a high of $ 63.88, testing its immediate resistance. While this resistance holds, we expect a pullback towards $ 60–$ 58 on the downside.

Gold ($ 3,397.30) as mentioned, has broken above its immediate resistance and tested a high of $ 3,408.10 yesterday. It can gradually move higher towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 34.34) contrary to our expectations, surged to a high of $ 34.95 yesterday. It can move further up towards $ 35.50–$ 36.00 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.7585) as expected, surged to test a high of $ 4.9495 yesterday. It is currently trading lower, but the outlook remains bullish towards $ 5.00–$ 5.10 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.74) has surged to close above $ 3.70 as US weather forecasts turn hotter. It must sustain above this level to move further up towards $ 3.90–$ 4.10 in the coming weeks.

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… 51.8 … Expected 50.8 … Previous 50.4

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
… 0.4 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.1

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
… – … Expected 6.2% … Previous 6.2%

DATA Yesterday
……………
0:30 06:00 JP PMI
… 49.3 … Expected – … Previous 48.7 …Actual 49.4

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
… 57.9 … Expected- … Previous 58.2 …Actual 57.6

5:45 11:15 CH GDP
… – … Expected- … Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.5

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
… 45.4 … Expected- … Previous 45.8 …Actual 42.1

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
… – … Expected- … Previous 49.0 …Actual 49.4

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
… 47.6 … Expected- … Previous 45.4 …Actual

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
… – … Expected- … Previous 45.3 …Actual 46.1

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
… 48.4 … Expected- … Previous 48.7 …Actual 48.5

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… 51.8 … Expected- … Previous 50.4 …Actual