Dollar Index and Euro can target 98-96 and 1.15-1.16 respectively. EURINR, above 97/96 looks bullish towards 99-100 levels. EURJPY is likely to hold the range of 165-160 region. USDJPY below 145, can fall back towards 142 or even 140 before halting. AUDUSD is nearing the upper end of its 0.6400/635-0.6500 range, Pound on the other hand looks stable within 1.34-1.36 range. The USDCNY below 7.20/17 can extend the fall towards 7.17/15 in the near term. The USDINR above 85.50 has a scope to rise back towards 86.

While the Dollar Index (99.01) trades below its immediate resistance coming at 100, a fall towards 98-96 looks likely to happen.

EURUSD (1.1412) looks stable above 1.14. For now, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 1.15-1.16 in the near term. Supports coming at 1.1400-1.1350.

EURINR (98.2177) on Friday tested 98.35 on the upside before cooling down a bit. While above 97-96, the ongoing rise can extend to 99-100 as well.

EURJPY (164.47) tested the resistance near 165.30 region on Friday before coming down. Its immediate range of 165-162/60 is likely to persist for a while before a decisive break happens on either side.

Dollar-Yen (144.40) while trades below 145, bias remains intact to see a fall towards a fall towards 142 or even 140 before halting.

USDCNY (7.1834) has been moving within the 7.20-7.17 region since the last few sessions. While the pair trades below 7.20/22, a fall towards 7.17/15 cannot be ruled out.

Aussie (0.6514) is nearing the upper end of its range of 0.6400/635-0.6550. Upon testing whether it rises further or continues to hold the range will have to be seen. For now, the range is likely to hold for some time.

Pound (1.3567) continues to trade within the 1.34-1.36 range.

USDINR (85.7440) on Friday closed at 85.63. A deeper support is coming at 85.50, above which a bounce back towards 86 looks likely to happen. Watch price action closely around current levels.

The US Treasury Yields have risen sharply on Friday after the jobs data release on Friday. If this rise sustains, the yields can move further higher to test their resistance. However, we expect them to reverse lower again thereafter. The German Yields remain stable. Key resistances are ahead which have to be broken to move higher and avoid falling back. The 10Yr GoI has risen back well after a sharp fall following the RBI meeting on Friday. A strong follow-through rise above the immediate resistance can trigger a relief rally going forward. The RBI had cut the repo rates by 50 bps.

The US 10Yr (4.50%) and 30Yr (4.97%) Treasury yields have risen back sharply. If this rise sustains, 4.6%-4.65% (10Yr) and 5.1% (10Yr) can be tested. Thereafter the yields can reverse lower again.

The German 10Yr (2.57%) and 30Yr (3.01%) yields remain stable. The yields have to breach 2.65 (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) decisively to become bullish and avoid falling back to 2.45%-2.4% (10Yr) and 2.9% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2891%) has risen back sharply from its low of 6.1334%. A strong follow-through rise above 6.3% can give some relief and take it up to 6.45%=6.5%. We will have to wait and see. Else the yield can fall back and remain inside 6.2%-6.3%/ We will have to wait and see.

The Dow rose sharply on Friday after a higher than expected NFP data release. The index can head towards 42500 in the near term a break past which will be needed for further bullishness. Dax is likely to remain ranged within 24500-24000 for the near term. Nifty closed higher last week and would strengthen its bullishness on a break past 25200. Nikkei and Shanghai trade higher today. Further bullishness may continue on a sustained rise past 38500 and 3400 respectively.

The Dow (42762.87, +1.05%) rose sharply on Friday after the NFP data came in stronger at 139k against the market expectation 137k. The index will have to break above 43000 to continue upmove towards 44000 or higher, else a dip below 43000 can take it down dowards 42500-42000 leading to a ranged movement for a few sessions.

DAX (24304.46, -0.079%) saw a rise after the ECB cut rates by 25bps last week but a hawkish statement by Lagarde triggered a reversal. 24500 remains a crucial resistance level and while below it, Dax could remain ranged between 24500 and 24000. A break past 24500 is needed for the index to gain fresh upward momentum.

Nifty (25003.05, +1.02%) has risen to 25000 as expected. The index needs to break above 25000-25200 and sustain trade to gain further bullishness towards 25500 or higher. Watch price action in the 25000-25200 region.

Nikkei (38086.99, +0.92%) is trading higher today breaking above 38000. A test of 38500 is possible in the next few sessions which needs to break on the upside for further bullishness to set in.

Shanghai (3396.56 +0.33%) has risen to test resistance at 3400. It would be crucial to see if the index manages to break higher and sustain in the coming sessions which can trigger a rise towards 3500. Else a decline back to 3350 or lower can be expected.

Crude prices rose on strong US payroll data and easing US-China tensions, but both face key resistance at $ 68 (Brent) and $ 65 (WTI) respectively, below which pullbacks are possible. Gold dipped below $ 3,400 but may rebound if it holds above $ 3,300. Silver is testing crucial resistance near $ 36.20, with a potential pullback unless it breaks higher towards $ 40. Copper is weakening towards $ 4.75 before a possible rebound to $ 5.00. Natural Gas has bounced as expected and may rise further towards $ 3.9–$ 4.0.

Brent ($ 66.44) tested a high of $ 66.80 following Friday’s stronger-than-expected US May payroll report and easing tensions between the US and China. Immediate resistance is near $ 68; while that holds, a pullback towards $ 64–$ 62 is possible in the near term. A break above $ 68 would push prices higher towards $ 70–$ 75.

WTI ($ 64.50) has risen above $ 64 and tested a high of $ 64.80 on Friday. Immediate resistance is near $ 65; while that holds, a decline towards $ 62–$ 60 is expected in the near term. A break above $ 65 is needed for further bullishness towards $ 68–$ 70.

Gold ($ 3,326.40) has reversed back below $ 3,400 contrary to our expectations. As long as it holds above $ 3,300, a bounce back towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 can be seen in the near term.

Silver ($ 36.20) is testing crucial resistance near current levels. While this holds, a pullback towards $ 35–$ 34 is likely. However, a break above this resistance would open the path for higher targets above $ 40 in the long term.

Copper ($ 4.8540) has declined to the expected levels and can continue falling towards $ 4.80–$ 4.75 in the near term before bouncing back towards $ 4.90–$ 5.00.

Natural Gas ($ 3.7350) has bounced back as anticipated and may move higher towards the $ 3.9–$ 4.0 levels in the near term.

23:50 05:20 JP GDP
…Previous 0.2%

DATA Yesterday
……………

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
…Previous 6.00% …Actual 5.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
…Previous 6.25% …Actual 5.75%

9:00 14:30 EU GDP
…Expected 0.4 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.6

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
0.2 …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.1%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
193K …Expected 130K …Previous 177K …Actual 139

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expected 4.2% …Previous 4.2% …Actual 4.2%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.32 …Actual 0.4

{12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
…Previous 7.4K …Actual 8.8