The Dollar Index is narrowing within the 98.35-99.50 region. The targets of 98-96 are kept open for now. The Euro, on the other hand, has immediate support just below current levels. For now, we retain our view of a possible rise towards 1.15–1.16 in the near term. EURINR has eased slightly after testing 98, but the bullish outlook towards 99–100 remains intact as long as support near 97–96 holds. EURJPY has risen past 165 and must sustain above this level to extend the move towards 166–167 in the coming sessions. USDJPY faces strong resistance in the 146–147 region. While it holds, a corrective fall towards 142-140 can be witnessed. AUDUSD and Pound can continue to hold their respective ranges of 0.6500-0.6400/635 and 1.34-1.36 in the near term. The USDCNY below 7.20 can extend the fall towards 7.17/15 in the near term. The USDINR needs to either break past 86 or fall below 85.50 to give further directional clarity.

Dollar Index (99.01) continues to consolidate within the 98.35–99.50 region. As long as resistance near 100 holds, the bias remains for a potential decline towards 98–96 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1397) is trading just above immediate support seen near 1.1400–1.1350. While this support holds, we continue to look for a rise towards 1.15–1.16 in the near term.

EURINR (98.2177) tested 98 on the upside before declining a bit. The cross has a scope to rise towards 99-100 While the support near 97-96 holds.

EURJPY (165.42) has finally broken above the 162/60–165 range. If this upward move sustains, it could extend further towards 166–167 or higher in the coming sessions. However, failure to hold above 165 may keep the range of 162/60–165 intact.

Dollar-Yen (145.12) has risen slightly above 145. Higher resistance is coming between the 146-147 region, below which the targets of 142-140 are kept open.

USDCNY (7.1838) is trading lower within the 7.20-7.17 range. For now, we retain our bearish bias towards 7.17-7.16 for now.

Aussie (0.6510) tested 0.6534 before coming down, indicating that the resistance at 0.6550 is holding well. The immediate range of 0.6550-0.6400/635 is likely to hold for some time.

Pound (1.3528) needs to give a decisive break on either side of its 1.34-1.36 range for further directional clarity.

USDINR (85.6090) tested the support near 85.50 level before closing higher. on Friday closed at 85.63. A break above 85.75/86.00 could take the pair higher towards 86.25–86.50, while a break below 85.50 could drag it lower towards 85.25–85.00. Wait and watch for now.

The US Treasury Yields have dipped. Failure to rise back from current levels will keep them vulnerable for a fall from here itself. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. A strong (high) CPI number is needed to push the yields higher from here. The German Yields continue to remain stable. They must breach their immediate resistance in order to move higher. Else they can resume the fall. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply above its resistance. More rise is on the cards in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.48%) and 30Yr (4.94%) Treasury yields have dipped slightly. Failure to rise back above 4.55% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) will negate the rise to 4.6%-4.65% (10Yr) and 5.1% (10Yr) mentioned yesterday. That in turn can drag the yields down to 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr) straightaway.

The German 10Yr (2.56%) and 30Yr (3.01%) yields continue to remain stable. A decisive rise above 2.65 (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) is needed to avoid the fall to 2.45%-2.4% (10Yr) and 2.9% (30Yr) and become bullish. We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3477%) has risen well above 6.3%. As mentioned yesterday, this will now give way for a rise to 6.45%-6.5%.

The Dow traded flat yesterday and holds below the 43000 level which needs to break necessarily on the upside for fresh bullishness to come in. Till then the index can remain ranged below 43000. Dax is holding below the resistance at 24500 and can trade within 24500-24000 for a while. Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai trade strong today and look bullish towards 25200-25400, 39000 and 3450-3500 respectively.

The Dow (42761.76, -0.0026%) traded flat yesterday. We continue to look at the crucial level of 43000, a break past which is needed for further bullishness. Till then the index may trade in a rang for some time.

DAX (24174.32, -0.54%) has declined and seems to be well below the resistance at 24500. A bounce back from 24000 can be possible in the near term, with a possible range of 24000-24500 to hold for the week.

Nifty (25103.20, +0.40%) continue to rise and is nearing the 25200 level. The upward momentum looks strong just now and could lead to a rise to 25400 on a sustained break above 25200.

Nikkei (38439.59, +0.92%) has risen well and is close to the 38500 level we have been looking for. It would be crucial to see if it manages to rise past 38500 and head towards 39000 in the coming days.

Shanghai (3405.08, +0.16%) has finally broken above 3400 after several attempts to move higher. Now, a sustained trade above 3400 will eventually take it higher towards 3450-3500. View is bullish above 3400.

Crude prices are trading just below key resistance levels, with potential pullbacks expected unless a breakout above $ 68 for Brent and $ 66 for WTI occurs. Gold may dip to $ 3,330–$ 3,250 before rebounding towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450. Silver has broken out and is poised to rise further towards $ 38–$ 40. Copper, while above $ 4.80, can target $ 4.95-5.00 in the near term. Natural gas can rise towards $ 3.90–$ 4.00 while above $ 3.60.

Brent ($ 67.13) has risen but remains below its immediate resistance. While this resistance holds, a pullback towards $ 64–$ 62 is possible in the near term. A break above $ 68 would be required for a further up move towards $ 75–$ 80 levels.

WTI ($ 65.40) is holding just below its immediate resistance. A sustained break above this level could drive prices higher towards $ 70–$ 75. However, if the resistance holds, a reversal towards $ 62–$ 60 on the downside may occur.

Gold ($ 3,334.60) tested a low of $ 3,313.10 before closing higher at $ 3,354.90 yesterday. A dip towards $ 3,300–$ 3,250 is possible in the near term before a potential rise to $ 3,400–$ 3,450 takes place.

Silver ($ 36.74) has broken above resistance and surged to $ 37.03 yesterday. The bullish momentum may continue, with targets of $ 38–$ 40 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.8850) bounced back sharply from a low of $ 4.8245 to close at $ 4.9250 yesterday. Immediate support is seen near $ 4.80, while this holds, copper could rally towards $ 4.95–$ 5.00 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6270) has dipped again, but as long as it remains above $ 3.60, a rise towards $ 3.90–$ 4.00 looks likely in the near term.

6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
4.6 …Expectation 4.6 …Previous 4.5

DATA Yesterday
……………

23:50 05:20 JP GDP
…Expectation 0.7% …Previous 0.7% …Actual 0.6%

1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectation -0.2 ..Previous -0.1 …Actual -0.1

1:30 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectation -3.1 …Previous -2.7 …Actual -3.3