The Dollar Index continues to remain stable within the 98.35-99.50 region. A better clarity could be expected after the US CPI data release scheduled today. The targets of 98-96 are kept open for now. We retain our bullish view on the Euro and EURINR towards 1.15–1.16 and 99–100 while both pairs trade above 1.1400-1.1350 and 97-96 respectively. EURJPY must sustain above 165 to extend the move towards 166–167 in the coming sessions. USDJPY faces strong resistance in the 146–147 region. While it holds, a corrective fall towards 142-140 can be witnessed. AUDUSD and Pound continue to hold their respective ranges of 0.6500-0.6400/635 and 1.36-1.34 in the near term. The USDCNY below 7.20 can extend the fall towards 7.17/15 in the near term. The USDINR needs to either break past 85.75/86 or fall below 85.50 to get further directional clarity.

Dollar Index (99.01) continues to hold the range of 98.35–99.50. As long as resistance near 100 holds, we are keeping our bearish bias towards 98–96 intact.

EURUSD (1.14125) looks stable above 1.14 region. While the support near 1.1400–1.1350 holds, we continue to look for a rise towards 1.15–1.16.

EURINR (98.2177) is moving within the 98.00-97.50 region since the last 2-3 sessions. The cross has a scope to rise towards 99-100 while the support near 97-96 holds.

EURJPY (165.52) tested 165.81 before declining a bit from there. The EURJPY if sustains above 165 could head towards 166–167 or higher in the coming sessions. However, failure to hold above 165 may drag it back within the 165-162/60 range.

Dollar-Yen (145.03) has higher resistance coming between the 146-147 region, below which the targets of 142-140 are kept open.

USDCNY (7.1863) continues to trade within the 7.20-7.17 range. The targets of 7.17-7.16 are kept alive while the pair trades below 7.20.

Aussie (0.6506) and Pound (1.3478) are holding the immediate ranges of 0.6550-0.6400/635 and 1.36-1.34 respectively. A decisive break on either side of the ranges will be needed for further directional clarity. Pound if breaks below 1.34, can test the deeper support near 1.33 before attempting to rise back.

USDINR (85.5390) is trading within 85.50-85.75 region for now. A break above 85.75/86.00 could take the pair higher towards 86.25–86.50, while a break below 85.50 could drag it lower towards 85.25–85.00. We will have to monitor the price action closely to see which way the spot breaks moving further.

The US Treasury Yields have dipped further. They look vulnerable to fall more. A strong rise and a break above the immediate resistance is needed to move higher. We will have to wait and watch the CPI data release today which can determine the move in yields. A strong CPI number is needed to take the yields higher. The German yields are coming down. They can fall more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is moving up in line with our expectation. It can rise further from here.

The US 10Yr (4.46%) and 30Yr (4.92%) Treasury yields have dipped further. As mentioned yesterday, a strong rise above 4.55% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) is needed to see a rise to 4.6%-4.65% (10Yr) and 5.1% (10Yr). Else the yields can fall to 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and 30Yr (2.97%) yields have declined sharply. That keeps the door open to see 2.45%-2.4% (10Yr) and 2.9% (30Yr) on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3638%) continues to move up. There is room to test 6.45%-6.5% on the upside.

The Dow is headed towards 43000 while the Dax can decline to 23500-23000 below crucial resistance near 24500. Nifty could be ranged between 25200 and 24800 uless a sharp break on the upside is seen. Nikkei and Shangahi look bullish towards 38500 and 3450-3500 respectively.

The Dow (42866.87, +0.25%) continue to rise in anticipation of some progress in the US-China trade talks. A test of 43000 looks possible for the near term. Thereafter, it is to be seen if the index can manage to break higher or not.

DAX (23987.56, -0.77%) has been declining well from resistance at 24500. While below 24000, a further dip to 23500-23000 can come into the picture.

Nifty (25104.25, +0.0042%) tested 25199 before closing lower. Note that 25200 is a crucial level, a break above which is necessary for further bullishness. Else while below 25200, we may expect a range of 25200-24800 to hold in the near term.

Nikkei (38390.16, +0.47%) is rising towards 38500 as expected. Immediate view is bullish.

Shanghai (3407.54, +0.67%) has risen past 3400. If the rise sustains, the index can target a slow rise to 3500 soon. Else a decline back to 3350 or lower can be expected.

Crude prices have faced resistance and pulled back. They may decline further unless key resistance levels are breached. Gold remains range-bound between $ 3,300–$ 3,400, while Silver holds a bullish outlook towards $ 38–$ 40. Copper continues to rise, targeting $ 5.00, whereas Natural gas dipped below $ 3.60 and may fall to $ 3.50 before rebounding.

Brent ($ 66.73) resistance at $ 68 was tested, and the price fell back to $ 66.87 yesterday. As long as this resistance holds, a further decline towards $ 64–$ 62 is possible in the near term. A sustained break above $ 68 is required for a move higher towards $ 75–$ 80.

WTI ($ 64.86) tested a high of $ 66.28 and declined to close at $ 64.98 yesterday. A sustained break above $ 66 is necessary for an upward move towards $ 70–$ 75 in the coming weeks; otherwise, it could fall back to $ 62–$ 60.

Gold ($ 3,349.40) has risen slightly. While below $ 3,400, a range of $ 3,400–$ 3,300 could persist in the near term.

Silver ($ 36.68) saw a slight dip yesterday, but the outlook remains bullish, with potential to rise towards $ 38–$ 40 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.8990) has risen as expected and may continue its rise towards $ 5.00 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5570) has fallen below $ 3.60, contrary to expectations. It could dip further towards $ 3.50 before a rebound towards $ 3.80–$ 4.00 takes place.

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
…kshitij 0.2 …Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI(MoM)
… 0.2% …Expectation 0.3% …Previous 0.2%

DATA Yesterday
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6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
4.6 …Expectation 4.6 …Previous 4.5 …Actual 4.6