The Dollar Index needs to rise past 99 in order to end the downtrend and to begin a fresh rally. Euro can fall towards 1.14 while it trades below 1.16/17. The EURINR has limited upside to 100. While below it, a fall back towards 98 or lower can be seen. EURJPY needs to hold above 166 and rise past 167 to test 170 or higher levels. USDJPY and USDCNY can remain ranged within the 142-146 and 7.17-7.20 region respectively. AUDUSD and Pound have declined a bit. Overall, the ranges of 0.6500-0.6400/635 and 1.36-1.34 are likely to hold in the near term. The USDINR is trading higher on the NDF and has a scope to extend the rise towards 86.25-86.50 in the coming weeks. IN WPI & Trade Balance data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.277) looks stable around the 98 region. A sharp rise past 99 will be needed to assume that the index has bottomed out and a fresh rally can begin. Only if it fails to rise past 99, can get dragged back towards 97 or even 96.

EURUSD (1.1533) observed the high of 1.1614 on Friday before turning lower. A resistance is evident between 1.16-1.17 region, while it holds a fall back towards 1.14 or lower can happen in the coming sessions. Only a rise past 1.17 if seen, can bring 1.20 into picture.

EURINR (99.3853) has sustained well above the 99 level. Immediate upside is capped at 100. While the resistance near 100 holds, a corrective fall towards 98 or lower could be witnessed.

EURJPY (165.50) tested 166.87 before declining a bit from there. The cross needs to sustain above resistance turned support near 166 region and rise past 167 to head towards 170 or higher levels. The overall downside could be limited to 164 max.

Dollar-Yen (144.45) can consolidate within the 142-146 region for now. A better directional clarity is expected after the BOJ meeting scheduled tomorrow.

USDCNY (7.1848) has bounced a little from its low of 7.1721 seen on Friday. The range of 7.17-7.20 remains intact for now. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Aussie (0.6483) and Pound (1.3547) can continue to remain volatile within their respective ranges of 0.6550-0.6400/635 1.36-1.34 till a break happens on either side.

USDINR (86.0610) is currently trading higher on the NDF. The pair could extend the rise towards 86.25-86.50 in the coming weeks before eventually turning lower.

The US Treasury Yields have risen back well on Friday. The yields are oscillating in a range now and have chances to move up within it. However, the bias remains negative for the yields to break the range on the downside and fall eventually. We will have to wait and see. The US Fed meeting outcome this week on Wednesday will be an important event to watch. The German yields fell to test their support as expected and has risen back well. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to become bullish and avoid falling back. The 10Yr GoI has come down from its high of Friday. The view remains bullish, and there is room to rise more.

The US 10Yr (4.40%) and 30Yr (4.90%) Treasury yields have risen back well. The yields are oscillating in a range of 4.3%-4.55% (10Yr) and 4.8%-5% (30Yr). The bias is negative to break this range on the downside eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.53%) and 30Yr (2.98%) yields have risen back well after testing 2.4% and 2.9% respectively as expected. But a strong rise above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) is needed from here to become bullish. We will have to wait and see.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3584%) has come-off after testing 6.4%. The bias remains positive to see 6.5% on the upside while above 6.3%.

Escalation of war scenario between Iran and Israel led to sharp decline in the equity segment on Friday, a recovery can be expected today. Dow and Dax were down sharply but while above 42000 and 23500, a rise can be expected. Else further extension of fall to 41000 and 23000 can come into the picture. Nifty is likely to trade within the 24400-25200 range for the near term. Nikkei and Shanghai trade in the green today, opening the week on a positive note. Nikkei can rise back to 38500 or higher while Shanghai can trade within 3375-3390/3400 for the near term with a possible dip to 3350 in the next 1-2 weeks.

The Dow (42197.79, -1.79%) fell sharply on Friday following the escalation of war between Israel and Iran. Watch if the index manages to hold above 42000 in the near term to see a pullback towards 43000; else can be vulnerable to extend further down to 41000.

DAX (23516.23, -1.07%) tested 23360 on Friday before closing at 23516.23. There could be some scope for a further decline to 23000-22500 unless an immediate bounce back is seen towards 24000 and higher.

Nifty (24718.60, -0.68%) fell to 24473 on Friday, breaking below our expected 24800 and nearing the lower end of the 24400-25200 range. While above 24400, the mentioned range may continue to hold for the near term.

Nikkei (38156.21, +0.85%) trades higher today after testing a low of 37540 on Friday. While above 37500-37000, the index seems to be rising back towards 38500 or higher again.

Shanghai (3382, +0.15%) is stable within the 3375-3390/3400 range which can continue to hold for the near term. A break below 3375 can take it down to 3350.

Crude prices are highly volatile amid escalating Iran-Israel tensions, with Brent falling from $ 78.31 after testing resistance near $ 80, and WTI dropping from $ 76.54 as $ 78 holds firm; both may trade in the $ 80–$ 70 and $ 78–$ 68 ranges unless resistance breaks. Gold remains strong above $ 3,400 and may rise toward $ 3,500–$ 3,600, while Silver is consolidating between $ 35.50–$ 37. Copper is bouncing within a $ 4.70–$ 5.00 range, and Natural gas continues to trade between $ 3.50–$ 3.80.

Brent ($ 74.94) opened higher at $ 78.31 and is falling sharply from there to close the gap-up. So far, the long-term resistance near $ 80 is holding. However, the escalating tension between Iran and Israel—particularly Iran’s recent strike on the largest oil refinery in Israel’s Haifa—is causing high volatility in the market. A break above this resistance would turn the price bullish towards $ 85–$ 90. Otherwise, the price may remain range-bound between $ 70–$ 80 for some time.

WTI ($ 73.84) opened higher at $ 76.54 and is coming down sharply. The resistance at $ 78 is holding well for now, and while it holds, a range of $ 68–$ 78 can be expected to persist. A break above $ 78 could take it higher towards $ 85–$ 90.

Gold ($ 3,460.90) is holding above $ 3,400 and could rise towards $ 3,500–$ 3,600 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 36.25) has fallen below $ 36.50 and may test immediate support at $ 35.50. A range of $ 37–$ 35.50 could hold for some time before the bullish trend resumes towards $ 38–$ 40.

Copper ($ 4.8011) tested the support at $ 4.70 and has bounced back to $ 4.80. A range of $ 4.70–$ 5.00 may persist until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6660) can trade within a range of $ 3.50–$ 3.80 for some time.

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
0.97 …Previous 0.85

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
…Previous -26.4

DATA Yesterday

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
-0.2% …Expectation -1.5% …Previous 2.4% …Actuals -2.4%

9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal
…Expectation 20.2 …Previous 27.9 …Actuals 9.9