The Dollar Index had declined a bit yesterday. A fresh rally can only begin on a break past 99, else it can be vulnerable to fall back towards 97 or even 96. Euro has a scope to fall towards 1.14 while it trades below 1.16/17. The EURINR has limited upside to 100. While below it, a fall back towards 98 or lower can be seen. EURJPY can head towards 170 or higher levels if sustained above 167. USDJPY and USDCNY can remain ranged within the 142-146 and 7.17-7.20 region respectively. AUDUSD and Pound can trade within the ranges of 0.6500-0.6400/635 and 1.36-1.34 respectively in the near term. The USDINR slipped below 86 by the closing. Immediate range of 86.25-85.80 can hold for some time before a break happens. BOJ meeting, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, US Capacity Utilisation data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.277) initially slipped to the low of 97.68 but later recovered as well. A sharp rise past 99 can begin a fresh rally. Else, it can get dragged back towards 97 or even 96.

EURUSD (1.1551) is holding well below the resistance between 1.16-1.17 region and is likely to fall back towards 1.14 or lower in the coming sessions. Only a rise past 1.17 if seen, can bring 1.20 into picture and negate the anticipated fall.

EURINR (99.0910) rose to the high of 99.7434 before cooling down. A corrective fall towards 98 or lower could be witnessed while the resistance near 100 holds.

EURJPY (167.33) has risen past 167 and if sustained, can extend the ongoing rise towards 170 or higher levels. The near term support is coming between the 166.00-165.50 region.

Dollar-Yen (144.93) is trading higher within its immediate range of 142-146. A better directional clarity is expected after the BOJ meeting scheduled today. Markets expect the interest rates to remain steady but the central bank’s take on the Bond tapering program and the path of rate hike going ahead would be important to watch.

USDCNY (7.1808) continues to remain within the 7.17-7.20 range. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Aussie (0.6483) and Pound (1.3547) tested the upper end of their respective ranges of 0.6550-0.6400/635 1.36-1.34 before coming down. Until a decisive break past 0.6550 and 1.36 is seen, the respective ranges can remain intact.

USDINR (85.76) witnessed a higher opening as anticipated and even tested 86.2325 before turning lower by the closing. A range of 86.25-85.80 can hold for some time before a break happens on either side.

The US Treasury Yields sustain higher within their sideways range. There is room to move up within the range in the near term. But the broader bias is negative to break the range on the downside eventually. The US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch. The German yields remain stable. They have to break their resistance and get a strong follow-through rise to become bullish. Else there is a danger of falling back again. The 10Yr GoI has come down. But support is there to limit the downside and keep the bullish view intact. A range bound move is possible in the near-term before the next leg of rise is seen.

The US 10Yr (4.42%) and 30Yr (4.94%) Treasury yields are holding higher. The 4.3%-4.55% (10Yr) and 4.8%-5% (30Yr) range is intact. We retain our negative bias to break the range on the downside and fall eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and 30Yr (2.98%) yields remain stable. As mentioned yesterday, a strong rise above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) is needed to become convincingly bullish and avoid a fall back. We will have to wait and see.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3272%) has declined further. It can test 6.3% and then bounce back again. Bias is bullish while above 6.3% to see a rise to 6.5%.

Signal from Iran to end hostilities with Israel and to resume its nuclear talks with US has led to a rise in Dow and Dax yesterday. Dow and Dax are headed towards 43000 and 24000-24500 in the near term while above 42000 and 23500 respectively. Nifty has risen well to almost 25000. A further rise to 25200 looks likely for the near term. Nikkei and Shanghai trade positive and could be headed towards 39000 and 3400 which are crucial resistances. Failure to break past the target resistances would lead to another corrective dip in the coming sessions.

The Dow (42515.09, +0.75%) rose well to test 42707.73 yesterday after the sharp decline on Friday, after news reported that Iran is urgently signaling to end conflict with Israel and resume talks on nuclear program with the US. A re-test of 43000 can be possible in the near term followed by a consolidation within 43000-42000 unless a sustained break above 43000 is seen in the medium term which could indicate further bullishness.

DAX (23699.12, +0.78%) has also risen well yesterday, recovering the loss seen on Friday. While above 23500, there is scope for a rise to 24000-24500 but failure to see such a rise can drag it lower to 23000 in the coming weeks. Watch if the bounce sustains to take it higher in the next few sessions.

Nifty (24946.50, +0.92%) has risen well within the mentioned 24400-25200 range, testing a high of 24967 yesterday. It could continue to move up and test 25200, followed by a sideways range of 25200-24500 till a decisive breakout above 25200 is seen in the medium term.

Nikkei (38505.21, +0.51%) trades higher today after testing a low of 37540 on Friday. While above 37500-37000, the index seems to be rising back towards 38500 or higher again.

Shanghai (3390.38, +0.049%) has risen and is heading towards 3400, a sustained break past which is needed for further bullishness in the medium term.

Crude prices remained weak as Iran signaled interest in resuming nuclear talks, with Brent and WTI holding above key support levels of $ 70/$ 71 and $ 69/$ 70 respectively, suggesting potential rebounds in the near term. Gold pulled back but stays bullish above $ 3,400, while Silver remains range-bound between $ 36–$ 37. Copper is stable above support, likely to trade between $ 4.70–$ 5.00, and Natural gas continues to hover within the $ 3.50–$ 3.80 range.

Brent ($ 73.46) remained weak yesterday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is seeking an end to hostilities and aims to resume talks over its nuclear program. Immediate support is seen near $ 70/$ 71, while this holds, the price may bounce back towards $ 76–$ 78 in the near term.

WTI ($ 70.48) is trading lower as expected. Immediate support is around $ 69/$ 70; while this level holds, the price could rebound towards $ 72–$ 74 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,412.60) retreated from a high of $ 3,476.30 yesterday. As long as it remains above $ 3,400, our view of a potential rise towards $ 3,500–$ 3,600 in the near term remains intact.

Silver ($ 36.43) has remained flat over the past few sessions. A range of $ 36–$ 37 may persist in the near term before the bullish trend resumes towards $ 38–$ 40.

Copper ($ 4.8070) is holding above its immediate support and may rise towards $ 4.90–$ 5.00 in the near term. A range of $ 4.70–$ 5.00 could hold for some time until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 3.7420) rose to test $ 3.76 yesterday. While below $ 3.80, it may continue to trade within the $ 3.50–$ 3.80 range for now.

3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectation 0.50% …Previous 0.50%

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
-0.5% …Expectation -0.6% …Previous -0.1%

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
0.2% …Previous 0.0%

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
77.8% …Expectation 77.7% …Previous 77.7%

DATA Yesterday

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
0.97 …Previous 0.85 …Actual 0.39

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
…Previous -26.4 …Actual -21.88

2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
…Expectation 4.9 …Previous 5.1 …Actual 6.4

2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
…Expectation 5.9 …Previous 6.1 …Actual 5.8