The Dollar Index is holding well below the resistance near 99. A test to 98 can happen soon. Euro and EURINR are headed towards the resistance near 1.16 and 100.00-100.50 region respectively. Upon testing whether the rise extends further or a corrective fall back is witnessed in both the pairs will have to be seen. EURJPY has risen sharply past 167 again and if sustained, can target 168-170 in the coming sessions. USDJPY and USDCNY can continue to trade between 146-144/42 and 7.20-7.17 region respectively in the near term. The Aussie tested the support near 0.645, while Pound limited the fall to 1.3382 itself. Both the pairs are likely to remain ranged within 0.6450-0.6550 and 1.33-1.36 regions respectively, before a break happens on either side. USDINR gave a break past 86.60 level and can now head towards 87.00-87.20 in the near term.

Dollar Index (98.65) tested 99.15 before turning lower. The target of 98 can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the fall extends further to 96 or the index bounces back from 98 itself will have to be seen.

EURUSD (1.1513) has bounced from the support near 1.1450 region and if sustained, can test 1.16 in the near term.

EURINR (99.9493) tested our target of 99 before rising back. Currently, the cross is headed towards the crucial resistance between the 100.00-100.50 region which can be tested soon in the near term. Thereafter, whether the resistance breaks or a corrective fall back happens will have to be seen.

EURJPY (167.31) initially slipped to the low of 166 as anticipated before recovering from there. Now, while the rise sustains above 167, a test to 168-170 is possible in the coming sessions. Immediate resistance turned support is coming at 166.

Dollar-Yen (145.12) is trading below the resistance near 146. Overall, a range of 146-144/42 can hold for a while before a break happens on either side.

USDCNY (7.1810) continues to remain volatile within the mentioned range of 7.20–7.17.

Aussie (0.6483) has held the support near 0.6450 quite well. For now, a range of 0.6450-0.6550 is likely to persist in the near term.

Pound (1.3392) limited the fall to 1.3382 itself and started rising. while the support between 1.34/33 holds, a bounce back towards 1.3500–1.3600 is possible. A broad range of 1.3300–1.3600 could hold for some time.

USDINR (86.7930) rose sharply to the high of 86.8925 yesterday as the tensions continue to escalate in the middle east. While above 86.50, the pair can target 87.00-87.20 in the near term.

The US markets were closed yesterday for a public holiday. The yields are now oscillating in a range. The bias is bearish to see a downside break of the range and fall eventually. The German Yields have bounced but may not sustain. The view remains negative and the yields can fall. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply, but well within the range. The bias is bullish to break the range on the upside and rise going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.39%) and 30Yr (4.90%) Treasury yields retain their 4.3%-4.55% (10Yr) and 4.8%-5% (30Yr) range. We remain bearish to see a downside break of this range eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and 30Yr (2.97%) yields have bounced back but are likely to be short-lived. We expect a fall to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr) again while the yields remain below 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3799%) has risen sharply within the 6.3%-6.4%. That keeps intact the bullish bias to break 6.4% and rise to 6.5% eventually.

Equities are looking subdued at the moment with uncertainty looming around the Iran-Israel war and comments from Trump to evacuate Tehran immediately. Dow was closed yesterday but could hold on to a broad range of 41000-43000, while Dax has declined sharply and could test 22500 before seeing a rebound. Nifty could remain ranged within 24400-25200 for some time, while Nikkei can test 38000 or lower while below 39000. Shanghai can trade within 3350-3400 with some slight chances of a break below 3350 in the near term.

The Dow (42171.66, -0.10%) was closed yesterday. While above 41500-42000, there can be some scope for a bounce in the near term towards 43000. A broad range of 41000-43000 can hold for the next few weeks.

DAX (23057.38, -1.12%) continued to decline sharply on comments from Trump to evacuate Tehran immediately. The index has already fallen towards our expected 23000 and could continue to extend fall to near-term support at 22500 from where a bounce can be possible. Watch price action at 22500.

Nifty (24793.25, -0.076%) dipped slightly as expected and could be ranged within 24400-25200 region with possible scope of testing the lower end of the mentioned range initially.

Nikkei (38448.08, -0.10%) seems to be holding well below the resistance near 39000, which can lead to a decline to 38000-37000 in the coming sessions.

Shanghai (3363.82, +0.051%) has tested 3358.91 before rising from there to current levels. The 3400-3350 range may continue to hold for the near term. A break below 3350, if seen, can drag it lower towards 3300 but could be short-lived with an eventual bounce back towards 3400.

Crude prices continue to rise, with Brent eyeing a break above the key $ 80 resistance that could trigger a rally towards $ 85–$ 90, driven by Middle East tensions. Gold has unexpectedly dropped below $ 3,400 and may fall further to $ 3,300. Silver is holding support near $ 36.17, with a possible rebound towards $ 37. Copper is likely to stay within the $ 4.75–$ 5.00 range, while Natural gas is steadily rising towards $ 4.20.

Brent ($ 77.39) surged to a high of $ 79.04 yesterday, in line with our expectations. Although it has opened lower today, the resistance near $ 80 remains crucial. A break above this level would confirm further bullishness, with potential targets at $ 85–$ 90 on the higher side. Otherwise, if the resistance holds, we might see a corrective dip towards $ 70. However, considering the ongoing tension between Iran and Israel, the chances of a bullish breakout are higher. Watch price action closely near $ 80.

WTI ($ 74.04) has, as expected, tested a high of $ 75.74 yesterday. Our view remains intact for a continued rise towards $ 76–$ 78 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,380.50) has broken below $ 3,400, contrary to our expectations. While it remains below this level, it may decline further towards $ 3,350–$ 3,300 in the near term.

Silver ($ 36.34) fell to test the 8-week MA support at $ 36.17 yesterday. While this support holds, we could see a bounce back towards $ 37 or higher in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.8015) dipped to a low of $ 4.77 yesterday. A range of $ 4.75–$ 5.00 may hold for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 4.0910) continues to move up as expected and may target $ 4.20 in the near term.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
-18.5 Expectation -19.0 Previous-20.0

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
2.9 Expectation 3.6 Previous 2.8

12:30 01:00 US Philifed Index
Expectation -1.2 Previous -4.0

DATA Yesterday

1:30 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectations 20.6k …Previous 87.6k … Actual -2.5k

8:30 14:00 SNB Mtg
…Expectations 0.00% …Previous 0.25% …Actual 0%

11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
…Expectations 4.25% …Previous 4.25% …Actual 4.25%

{11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-2-7 …Previous 0-7-2 …Actual 0-3-6